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Another
choppy trade from what appears to be lack of direction.  US weather is improving.  Brazil corn production downgrades are supportive feedgrains.  US crop progress was around expectations but don’t discount pressure in corn on Tuesday as the US should be nearing
50 percent complete by Wednesday. 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

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World
Weather, Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH THIS WEEK

  • Some
    beneficial rain fell from eastern Nebraska through west-central and northeastern Iowa to Wisconsin during the weekend
    • Moisture
      totals of 0.30 to 1.25 inches occurred most often with Doppler radar suggesting some locally heavy amounts of rain
      • The
        precipitation was welcome with more needed
  • No
    relief to dryness occurred in southern Minnesota, northwestern Iowa or neighboring areas of northeastern Nebraska where rain is needed to ease developing dryness
  • Portions
    of Iowa, southeastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota reported excessive heat during the weekend in the very same area that has been unusually dry in the past 30 days
    • Extreme
      high temperatures reached into the 90s with Spencer, Iowa reporting 97 degrees Fahrenheit; most extreme highs were in the lower 90s
    • Crops
      and livestock were stressed by the heat and rapid soil moisture depletion resulted
  • Frost
    and freezes are likely in the Dakotas and western Minnesota tonight and in the upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
    • The
      cold may damage a few early emerged and developing spring crops
    • Some
      frost may occur into parts of Iowa and Nebraska, but damage to crops should not be significant in those areas.
      • A
        little frost may also occur in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and neighboring areas of the west-central high Plains tonight
        • Most
          temperatures will not be low enough to permanently harm wheat
  • Excessive
    rain fell across portions of Texas during the weekend resulting in some flooding
    • The
      southern Blacklands and the middle and upper Texas coast were wettest with 2.00 to 4.13 inches common and local amounts along the central coast getting over 7.00 inches
      • Victoria
        reported 7.64 inches
      • A
        few rice production areas were flooded, and a few corn, sorghum and cotton areas were impacted by heavy rain, but much of the rain was not problematic except that which occurred near the coast
  • Southeastern
    parts of West Texas received additional rain Friday with amounts of 0.05 to 0.30 inch noted after greater rain fell during mid-week last week
  • Much
    of West and far South Texas still have need for significant rain
    • A
      few showers and thunderstorms are possible today and again Friday into Saturday
      • The
        precipitation may not generate much beneficial moisture, but it and that which has occurred prior to that time is adding some moisture to the air which should help improve the potential for greater rain when conditions are right later this spring
  • Rain
    is still advertised in southwestern and far southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan as well as the northern U.S. Plains this weekend
    • No
      general soaking is expected, but 0.15 to 0.60 inch and local totals to nearly 1.00 inch will be possible and that could go a very long way in improving spring planting and establishment conditions
      • Coverage
        of the greatest rain will not be widespread, but improvement is expected wherever more than 0.40 inch of moisture results
    • The
      remaining Prairies and northeastern Plains may not be impacted by much precipitation and drought conditions will prevail
  • U.S.
    Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the next ten days keeping field progress a little slow but assuring a good start to emergence and establishment.
    • Iowa
      will get some additional relief from dryness along with a few neighboring areas later this week and into next week
      • Amounts
        will be light varying 0.20 to 0.80 inch and locally more
    • The
      greatest rainfall this week is expected in the lower Midwest where some moderate to heavy rain may occur periodically. Some field working delay is expected, but progress was likely good in many areas during the weekend
    • Upper
      Midwest precipitation will be lightest in this coming week and a close watch on next week’s precipitation potential is warranted
      • The
        GFS model is much wetter than the European model for the upper Midwest, northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies for the coming weekend and early next week
  • U.S. 
    Southeastern states will experience a good balance between rain and sunshine over the next ten days
  • U.S.
    Delta could be a little too wet at times in the coming week slowing field progress at times
  • U.S.
    Midwest, northern Plains and eastern Canada’s Prairies weather will be cooler than usual this week
    • Warmer
      than usual weather will occur in the southwestern United States
    • Next
      week will trend a little warmer in the Plains and lower Midwest
  • Interior
    U.S. Pacific Northwest will remain drier biased over the next two weeks with near to below average temperatures this week
  • Brazil
    rainfall during the weekend was greatest in eastern Mato Grosso where 0.50 to nearly 2.00 inches resulted; most other crop areas in the nation were dry and temperatures were seasonable

 

    • A
      few showers occurred in central Mato Grosso do Sul and from northern Rio de Janeiro to eastern Bahia, but crop areas failed to get more than 0.25 inch of moisture
    • Highest
      afternoon temperatures were in the 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit in southern Safrinha corn production areas while in the 80s and lower to a few middle 90s in the north
  • Brazil
    is facing another ten days to two weeks of dry weather in its Safrinha corn and cotton areas along with its sugarcane, coffee and citrus areas
    • Most
      of the drying is normal for this time of year, but soil conditions are already quite dry and reproducing and filling Safrinha crops will suffer enough stress to hurt production
  • Brazil
    rainfall will be mostly confined to the far northern fringes of crop country and in Rio Grande do Sul for the coming ten days
    • Crops
      in Rio Grande will benefit greatly from alternating periods of rain and sunshine
  • Argentina
    weather was also mostly dry during the weekend with temperatures near to above average
    • A
      few showers did occur in Buenos Aires overnight with rainfall to 0.39 inch through 0100 CDT today
    • An
      extreme low of 35 Fahrenheit occurred in the interior southeast which might have been low enough for a patch or two of frost
      • Crop
        damage if any should have been minimal
  • Argentina
    rainfall through Wednesday will be sufficient to maintain moisture abundance for late season crop development
    • Amounts
      will vary from 0.20 to 0.60 inch with local totals of up to 1.50 inches and a little more
      • Buenos
        Aires and areas from northern Uruguay to central Santa Fe and southeastern Santiago del Estero will be wettest
  • Argentina
    will be dry Thursday through Monday with another chance for rain during mid-week next week
    • The
      bottom line will be very good for late season crops, although a little less rain might be best for late season summer crop maturation and harvest progress
      • The
        moisture will be good for winter wheat planting late this month and in June
    • Another
      period of drying will occur late next week through May 17.
  • Argentina
    temperatures will be a little cooler this week, but only slightly below average
    • Some
      frost is possible in southern La Pampa and far southwestern Buenos Aires Tuesday and in the traditionally coolest areas of southeastern Buenos Aires Wednesday
      • Temperatures
        should stop short of being damaging to immature soybeans and other crops, but the situation will be closely monitored
  • Europe
    will receive waves of rain this week across some of the central and north improving topsoil moisture in some areas after recent drying
    • Southern
      Europe will be drier this week
    • Temperatures
      will be cooler than usual in the north and near to above normal in the south
    • Next
      week’s weather will be wetter from northern Spain and Portugal through France to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary while a little drier farther to the north
      • Temperatures
        will also be a little warmer in the north next week while cooler in the wetter areas
  • Europe
    weekend precipitation was greatest from southeastern France and northern Italy through southeastern Germany and Austria to Poland where 0.40 to 1.00 inch was common and a few amounts of 1.00 to 2.40 inches
    • More
      limited precipitation occurred elsewhere
    • Temperatures
      were in the 50s and 60s except in southeastern parts of the continent where 70s and 80s were noted
  • CIS
    rainfall during the weekend was greatest in western Russia where amounts varied from 0.20 to 0.50 inch and local totals 0.84 inch
    • Temperatures
      were warm enough to stimulate winter crop development in Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region and support planting in most of the same southern areas
  • Several
    waves of rain will impact western Russia, Belarus, the Baltic States and in a few areas of northwestern Ukraine during the coming ten days maintaining wet field conditions
    • Farming
      activity will remain restricted in these areas with rising concern over delayed spring planting
    • Good
      field progress will occur farther to the south where much less precipitation is expected, and temperatures will be more seasonable
    • Temperatures
      will be cooler than usual in the wetter areas of the northwest.
  • Eastern
    Russia New Lands will experience a dry and warm bias through the next two weeks
    • The
      environment will eventually be great for spring planting
  • East-central
    and southern China temperatures rose well above average during the weekend with highs in the 80s and lower to a few middle 90s Fahrenheit
    • Highs
      in the North China Plain were in the 70s and 80s except in the fart northeast where 50s and 60s were noted
      • Highs
        in northeastern China were also in the 50s and 60s
    • Very
      little precipitation fell during the weekend allowing net drying to occur in many areas
      • Thunderstorms
        did evolve Sunday and early today from eastern Sichuan to Shaanxi and some of the rain was heavy
        • Some
          heavy rain also occurred in southeastern Guangxi and western Guangdong
    • Fieldwork
      likely advanced swiftly in the North China Plain and east-central provinces
  • North
    China Plain weather will be limited on precipitation for the next couple of weeks and temperatures will be warming
    • A
      steady decline in soil moisture is expected with temperatures trending warmer
      • A
        rising need for rain is expected later this month
      • Excellent
        planting progress is anticipated for a while until dryness becomes more of an issue
  • Northeastern
    China will experience slowly warming temperatures and infrequent precipitation allowing fieldwork to slowly increase
  • Southern
    China rain will fall abundantly and frequently over the next couple of weeks limiting some farming activity and keeping the region saturated or nearly saturated
    • Some
      local flooding will be possible at times
  • Australia
    weather during the weekend was mostly dry and mild to warm with coastal showers only
  • Western
    Australia will receive waves of rain through mid-week this week while other areas are mostly dry
    • Total
      rainfall will vary from 0.50 to 1.50 inches by Thursday afternoon with good coverage
      • The
        moisture will support some early season wheat, barley and canola planting, but follow up moisture will be needed
    • A
      few sporadic showers may occur in other areas, but resulting rainfall will not likely be very great except in the Great Dividing Range of the east
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • South
    Africa received scattered showers during the weekend in nearly 60% of crop areas with moisture totals to 0.43 inch common and local totals to 0.62 inch in Mpumalanga and 1.38 inches in southeastern Free State eastern and southern Natal
    • Driest
      in the west
    • Temperatures
      were mild
  • South
    Africa will receive some late season showers again Thursday into the weekend with net drying until then
    • Next
      week will trend drier once again
    • The
      environment will be good for harvesting and late season crop maturation
      • Production
        this year has been very good for nearly all crops
    • Winter
      wheat and barley planting should benefit from the moisture, although rain will soon be needed in the west
  • India
    weather will remain good for winter crop maturation and harvest progress, although showers will continue periodically in some areas
    • Southern
      India will be wetter than usual over the next couple of weeks and rain will also fall frequently from Bangladesh into the far Eastern States
      • Delays
        to harvest progress will be greatest in the south
    • Showers
      in northern India will not be great enough to be much of a factor to crop maturation or harvesting
  • No
    tropical cyclones are present in the world today
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index is mostly neutral at -.06 and the index is expected to slip a little lower over the next few days
  • Mexico
    drought will continue during the next two weeks, although scattered showers will occur periodically in the east and far south with the south wettest.
    • Next
      week will be wetter than this week favoring the east half of the nation
  • Xinjiang
    China’s cotton areas were left dry and turned hot briefly Friday and Saturday before cooling in the northeast Sunday
    • Highest
      afternoon temperatures reached the 80s Fahrenheit in the northeast and the 90s west and south
    • Cooling
      Sunday brought a few showers to the northeast, but most of the rain was not significantly and none of the cooler air reached the southwest
    • Improved
      early season crop development conditions occurred, although the sudden warming from very cold conditions may have been stressful
      • Some
        replanting of cotton may be necessary in the northeast after freezes occurred a week ago
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather will remain war in the west and south while the northeast will see alternating periods of normal and above normal temperatures
    • Some
      rain will occur infrequently in the northeast as scattered showers infrequently
      • The
        moisture will have a low impact
    • There
      is no risk of threatening cold temperatures, but some of the heat could stress early emerging crops in the southwest
  • North
    Africa rainfall will receive erratic rainfall this week favoring Algeria and Tunisia where crop conditions will be good or getting better. Northwestern Algeria will see the lightest rain
    • Morocco
      is not likely to see nearly as much rain and may experience net drying, but crops are in the best shape in northern Morocco and drying should not induce any harm.
      • Southwestern
        Morocco is still too dry, though
    • Temperatures
      are trending warmer than usual
  • West-central
    Africa rainfall was greatest in western Cameroon and eastern Nigeria during the weekend while net drying occurred in most other areas
    • A
      favorable mix of rain and sunshine has been occurring recently and the trend will continue, although some of the precipitation will be lighter than usual leading some need for greater rainfall later this month
      • Crop
        conditions will stay good
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall has been erratic in recent weeks and a boost in rainfall is coming to Kenya, Ethiopia and northern Tanzania during the coming week
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall will be favorably distributed in Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the mainland areas during the next two weeks
    • Greater
      rain is needed in the northern and western Philippines and in southern parts of central Vietnam and other mainland crop areas
  • New
    Zealand precipitation for the next two weeks will be lighter than usual in North Island and eastern parts of South Island while moderate to heavy rain occurs long the west coast of South Island possibly inducing some flooding
    • Temperatures
      were near to above average

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
May 4:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • EARNINGS:
    Bunge, Andersons, Minerva
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan, China, Thailand

Wednesday,
May 5:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Malaysia
    May 1-5 palm oil export data
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan, China

Thursday,
May 6:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
May 7:

  • China
    customs publishes trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • CNGOIC
    monthly report on Chinese grains & oilseeds
  • Canada’s
    Statcan to issue wheat, canola, barley and durum stockpile data
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat            
509,932           versus  400000-600000           range

Corn               
2,139,077        versus  1100000-2150000       range

Soybeans        
143,418           versus  150000-300000           range

 

 

 

Macro

US
Construction Spending (M/M) Mar: 0.2% (est 1.7%; prev R -0.6%)

US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Apr F: 60.5 (est 60.7; prev 60.6)

US
ISM Manufacturing Apr: 60.7 (est 65.0; prev 64.7)


Prices Paid: 89.6 (est 86.1; prev 85.6)


New Orders: 64.3 (est 69.5; prev 68.0)


Employment: 55.1 (prev 59.6)

Canadian
Markit Manufacturing PMI Apr: 57.2 (prev 58.5)

 

Corn

  • Another
    wild trading day in US agriculture futures with an extremely volatile close.  After CBOT
    corn
    opened sharply higher, to fresh 8-year highs, prices tanked presumably on good US weather with the advancement of US corn seedings, then to rebound.  CBOT corn margins were increased, so that could have triggered profit taking by longs and had some shorts
    shore up positions.  Note corn margins increased 35 percent since April 22.  There was a good amount of action in selling nearby corn spreads. 

As
of 1:20

  • S/C
    November/December price ratio declined to its lowest level since June 2020. 
  • US
    corn plantings came in slightly above trade expectations. 
  • Talk
    of sub 100 million ton Brazil corn crop and follow through bullish momentum is supporting prices.  US weather was very good over the past week with exception of some dry areas out west.  Rule of thumb is that the lower the Brazil corn crop, greater US and
    Ukraine corn exports. 
  • StoneX
    Brazil lowered their Brazil total corn production estimate to 100.25 million tons from 105.06 previous. 2nd crop corn was lowered to 72.7 million from 77.65MMT.  Brazil soybeans are projected at 135.73MMT, up from 134.03MMT last month.