PDF Attached

 

Outside
commodity influence sent most contracts lower for soybeans, corn and wheat. Bear spreading was a feature for soybeans while new crop corn saw selling after USDA reported a good increase in US corn plantings as of Sunday. US wheat traded two-sided and were
mostly lower for the day after USDA reported the combined G/E categories up two points to 28 percent from the previous week. US corn plantings were 26 percent, one point below expectations. With a quarter of the corn crop in the ground, look for the trade
to focus more on germination and development over the next couple of weeks. Soybean plantings were 19 percent, 2 points above expectations.

 

New-crop
soybean/corn ratio

 

Fund
estimates as of May 2

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Drought
    in Alberta and western Saskatchewan is unlikely to abate during the next two weeks, despite a few showers possible
  • Unusual
    warmth occurred in central Alberta Monday with an extreme high of 86 Fahrenheit; many temperatures were in the 70s and lower 80s
    • The
      heat will continue into the latter part of this week and then a more seasonably warm temperature regime is expected
  • Drought
    will continue in Spain, Portugal and northwestern Africa through the coming week and perhaps longer
  • Northern
    Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will continue dry and warm for another week, but some relief may come along in the May 10-16 period.
    • Dryness
      has been supporting aggressive spring planting and does not (yet) pose much of a threat to long term crop development unless than pattern resumes later this month or this summer
  • U.S.
    Midwest excessive wind, cold and showery weather that occurred over the past two days will subside today and should not return again for a while
    • Some
      structural damage has occurred because of the wind, but the impact on agriculture has been low outside of some delay to farming activity
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will begin receiving some showers and thunderstorms tonight and the precipitation will occur periodically over the next couple of weeks
    • A
      general soaking of rain is not likely, but these frequent scattering of showers and thunderstorms will bring moisture to the atmosphere which is absolutely necessary if there is ever going to be a greater rain event
  • Texas
    Blacklands, Coastal Bend and to a lesser degree South Texas will have opportunity for generalized rain during the coming ten days favoring long term crop development
    • Some
      of this rain will reach into Louisiana favoring sugarcane and rice areas for rain as well
  • Red
    River Basin of the North moisture profile will remain abundant to excessive for a little while longer due to rain expected Friday into early next week when 0.30 to 1.00 inch of moisture is expected with local totals to 1.50 inches falls over the already moist
    topsoil
  • River
    flooding continues along the upper half of the Mississippi and in the Red River Basin of the North and this process will continue through much of this month
    • Prevent
      plant is a possibility for a part of these region’s and in Manitoba Canada, but much will be determined by rainfall that occurs later this month and in June
      • A
        significant break from rain is needed along with warm temperatures to get fields in better shape for planting
  • U.S.
    Delta will be plenty moist over the next ten days keeping some farming activity a little slow
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks maintaining good crop development conditions, but slowing fieldwork at times
  • Argentina’s
    drier bias will continue over the next ten days maintaining a good summer crop maturation and harvest outlook, but a big boost in soil moisture is needed for winter wheat planting
    • Wheat
      planting does not usually begin until late this month and June is the most important month for getting crops planted on time
  • Center
    south and center west Brazil is drying down, but that is normal for this time of year
    • Concern
      remains over long term soil moisture for the late planted corn
      • Rain
        will be needed in late May and early June to support the very latest planted crops through reproduction and filling
  • Coffee,
    citrus and sugarcane in Brazil are maturing favorably with some early harvesting already under way
    • Coffee
      and citrus production should be high this year while sugarcane yields may be off a little bit because of too much rain at times in the heart of the production region and late season dryness in the minor areas of the north
  • Cold
    weather will continue to impact northeastern Europe over the next week with the next coldest period of time coming up late this week into early next week
    • No
      crop damage is likely except possibly to flowering fruit trees
  • Europe
    and the western CIS will receive frequent bouts of rain during the next ten days resulting in favorable soil moisture
    • This
      does not include the Iberian Peninsula or the eastern CIS New Lands where dryness is an ongoing concern
  • India’s
    weather will continue unsettled over the next ten days and additional waves of rain will impact variously parts of the nation, but big soakings of rain like that of this past weekend is not expected to occur again.
    • The
      far north and extreme south will be wettest, though, at least for a while
    • Field
      working delays have occurred and some of the wettest areas have been suffering from quality declines
  • Western
    Australia has a very good opportunity for rain this weekend and again next week
    • The
      two moisture events should bolster topsoil moisture for improved wheat, barley and canola planting, emergence and establishment
  • Other
    areas in Australia will continue to experience favorable weather for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting
  • All
    of eastern China’s agricultural areas will receive rain at one time or another during the next two weeks.
    • East-central
      and southeastern parts of the nation will be wettest, but the rain will be spread out enough to limit the incidence of flooding
    • Crop
      conditions should stay mostly favorable, although a little less rain is needed in rapeseed areas to protect crop quality
  • Xinjiang,
    China continues to battle periods of cool weather and needs to warm up and be consistently warm to support cotton, corn and other crop development.
    • Some
      warming is expected this weekend into next week
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia are getting more routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms, but resulting rainfall has continued to be lighter than usual
    • Monsoonal
      precipitation usually begins in the south late this month
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia will continue to experience frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days – no area is expected to become too dry or excessively wet
  • Philippines
    rainfall will be timely, but there is need for greater rain in the north
  • Middle
    East soil moisture is greatest in Turkey, but there is need for more moisture in areas to the south and east
    • The
      environment is not critical, but cotton and rice would benefit from greater rain and improved soil moisture
    • Wheat
      production was mostly good this year
  • South
    Africa rainfall will be infrequent and light enough over the next ten days to support most late season crop needs while allowing some harvest progress to continue
  • Cotton
    areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso need significant rain to support cotton planting and establishment in unirrigated areas
    • Some
      showers are possible during the second week of the forecast
  • Drought
    continues in central and western Mexico while recent rain in the east has improved crop and field conditions
  • East-central
    Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was 0.49 and it should move erratically higher over the next several days

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
May 2:

  • US
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
  • Malaysia’s
    April 1-30 palm oil exports
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • HOLIDAY:
    China
    ,
    Vietnam

Wednesday,
May 3:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    China
    ,
    Japan, Vietnam

Thursday,
May 4:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh

Friday,
May 5:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Malaysia’s
    May 1-5 palm oil export data
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm