PDF Attached

 

Friday
most ag futures appreciated on ongoing concerns over shrinking supplies.  CFTC showed the managed fund positions less long than expected.  Next week we will start to see new crop analyst estimates for the upcoming May USDA report. 

 

 

Reminder:
CME is resetting price limits for grain, soybean complex and lumber futures on May 2. For example, corn to 40 cents, soybeans to 1.00, wheat to 45. 
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2021/04/SER-8761.pdf

CME
Margin changes:

CME
RAISES CORN FUTURES (C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 7.9% TO $2,050 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,900 FOR MAY 2021

SAYS
INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF MAINTENANCE MARGIN RATES

SAYS
RATES WILL BE EFFECTIVE AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON MAY 3, 2021

 

RAISES
SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 7.2% TO $4,100 PER CONTRACT FROM $3,825 FOR MAY 2021

SAYS
INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF MAINTENANCE MARGIN RATES

SAYS
RATES WILL BE EFFECTIVE AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON APRIL 30, 2021

 

Weather

 

 

Past
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World
Weather, Inc.

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

Alternating
periods of rain and sunshine in the U.S. Midwest during the next two weeks will prove beneficial for spring planting and early crop development. Too much rain in the Delta might induce some flooding and some crop damage.

In
South America, Argentina’s weather is still favorable for late season summer crop development and drier weather through the coming weekend will improve maturation and harvest conditions after recent rain. Brazil weather will be dry keeping a great amount of
concern over long term Safrinha corn production potentials.

            Rapeseed
in Western Europe will see improved weather and some warming this week will help support better corn, sunseed and other spring and summer crop planting in southwestern Europe. Western Ukraine weather will remain inclement for planting of summer crops and the
same is true for parts of Eastern Europe.

            China’s
rapeseed will experience better weather over the coming week with less frequent rain and some warmer weather, but too much moisture during much of the spring likely reduced production and quality. Spring planting of other coarse grain and oilseeds in the south
will improve with warmer temperatures and less rain for a while. China’s outlook may not be ideal, but it should improve for spring planting. Northern China planting weather is good.

            India’s
harvest of winter coarse grain and oilseeds will advance well during the next two weeks. Australia’s canola planting will begin soon, but some rain is needed first – at least in some areas. Dry conditions in Australia will prevail for a while longer, but some
showers will develop in the southwest late this week and throughout Western Australia early next week.

            Southeast
Asia oil palm production areas are experiencing a mostly good environment for crop development and little change is expected, despite some drier biased weather for a while.

            Canada
canola planting should begin soon, but dryness and cold temperatures will be a concern for a while along with the potential for some cool weather in May.

            Overall,
weather today will likely maintain support for the marketplace, but improving U.S. weather conditions may take some of the bullishness down a bit. Brazil is still the biggest potential problem area, though.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Concern over dryness in the southwestern U.S. Plains will continue over the next week to ten days, although some showers are expected in this coming week.  Rain is needed to support crops as they move toward reproduction. Dryness
is also an ongoing concern for Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains where some increase in rainfall is expected during May. Poor seed germination and plant emergence will occur in spring wheat areas of Canada and the northern Plains without improving
rainfall.

            Today’s
forecast in Australia is advertised to bring showers to many wheat and barley production areas during the coming ten days. Any precipitation would be welcome and good for moistening topsoil moisture ahead of planting, but greater amounts will still be needed.

Wheat
conditions in Europe and the western CIS are fair to good, although recent cold weather in Europe caused some concern over a few crops. Rainy weather in western Russia and parts of Ukraine has been raising concern over winter crop conditions and early season
planting delays.

            India’s
harvest is moving along well while China’s wheat is rated favorably. Some spring planting is under way in northern China and it should advance well.

            North
Africa wheat is in mostly good shape, but rain is needed in northwestern Algeria and southwestern Morocco. The best crops are in northern Morocco and that will not change for a while.

            Overall,
weather today is likely to have a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

 

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Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
May 3:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • U.S.
    corn for ethanol, soybean crush, DDGS production, 3pm
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica monthly coffee exports
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee updates world supply and demand outlook
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.K., Japan, China, Vietnam, Thailand

Tuesday,
May 4:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • EARNINGS:
    Bunge, Andersons, Minerva
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan, China, Thailand

Wednesday,
May 5:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Malaysia
    May 1-5 palm oil export data
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan, China

Thursday,
May 6:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
May 7:

  • China
    customs publishes trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • CNGOIC
    monthly report on Chinese grains & oilseeds
  • Canada’s
    Statcan to issue wheat, canola, barley and durum stockpile data
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Changes
to WASDE starting May

Starting
with the May 12, 2021 release (issue No. 612), the following changes will be made to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report:

  • U.S.
    Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (page 15): “Biofuel” will replace “Biodiesel” in the soybean oil section, reflecting recent changes to the monthly biofuels data reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The WASDE will follow soybean oil
    used for biofuel as reported in the Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks Update – Table 2C (PDF, 287 KB).
  • World
    Soybean Meal Supply and Use (page 29): Soybean meal supply and use for China will be presented separately.
  • The
    U.S. Rice Supply and Use table (page 14): The table will include separate categories for U.S. imports of long-grain and combined medium and short-grain rice. The addition is made due to the significant rise in U.S. imports of long-grain and medium- and short-grain
    rice over the past decade.
  • The
    United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 1, 2021; the trade bloc now has 27 member states instead of 28. Beginning with the January 2021 WASDE report, the heading for the EU-28 region will change from “European Union” to “EU-27+UK”. Starting
    May 2021, (when projections for the new Marketing Year are released), the UK data will be disaggregated from the regional total and presented separately in the report, where applicable.

 

FRIDAY
FND (released Thursday night)

 

SUNDAY
DELIVERIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

There
were no notable record positions this week.  SBO prices have managed to climb substantially despite the net fun position unable to test its record long position established 2016. Managed money for corn is near a recent record.  Managed money for Chicago wheat
ticked higher with nearby prices at highs not seen since 2012.  As we said in the past, we caution taking the daily estimate of funds literally, rather look at the momentum of buying.  Funds estimates missed the corn position by most for the week ending April
27 in our recorded history dating back to 2012. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Speculators
cut corn net long position-CFTC – Reuters News

SUPPLEMENTAL     
Non-Comm               Indexes                  Comm

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
335,631    -19,286    413,831     -2,948   -733,660     21,448

Soybeans          
133,912        924    183,053      9,994   -320,269    -11,244

Soyoil             
57,308     -3,850    120,794      5,846   -197,028     -1,566

CBOT
wheat         -18,508      6,831    160,331      1,671   -131,321    -10,531

KCBT
wheat          13,528      6,699     68,666      5,058    -81,151     -9,838

=================================================================================

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
378,663     -5,336    239,774     -1,299   -710,596     18,036

Soybeans          
180,014      7,470     71,146      2,279   -283,625     -6,847

Soymeal            
54,086      6,039     74,657       -532   -188,549     -7,517

Soyoil             
92,587      2,595    105,756      2,752   -218,831       -146

CBOT
wheat          13,399     11,816     80,823     -5,530   -105,929     -6,036

KCBT
wheat          30,038     11,292     45,405        649    -74,720     -9,374

MGEX
wheat          14,079      1,962      3,480       -189    -28,435     -2,995

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         57,516     25,070    129,708     -5,070   -209,084    -18,405

 

Live
cattle         54,895    -16,424     85,543       -171   -157,997     10,079

Feeder
cattle          679     -1,569      7,763         67     -2,574        230

Lean
hogs           71,117     -2,129     59,136       -551   -136,454      3,188

 

                     
Other             NonReport                  Open

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg   Interest        Chg

Corn              
107,963    -12,188    -15,803        785  2,399,229   -148,475

Soybeans           
29,160     -3,229      3,303        327  1,167,102    -82,399

Soymeal            
26,423      1,867     33,383        141    459,296    -17,824

Soyoil              
1,562     -4,770     18,925       -431    572,191    -49,898

CBOT
wheat          22,209     -2,280    -10,502      2,030    548,366       -196

KCBT
wheat             321       -647     -1,044     -1,919    237,214      3,537

MGEX
wheat           3,302      1,955      7,574       -733     84,487      2,877

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         25,832       -972     -3,972       -622    870,067      6,218

 

Live
cattle         24,563      2,323     -7,004      4,193    377,095       -399

Feeder
cattle        3,934        109     -9,802      1,162     55,554      2,643

Lean
hogs           13,846        -74     -7,644       -433    343,649      2,684

 

Macro

US
Personal Income Mar: 21.1% (est 20.2%; prevR -7.0%; prev -7.1%)

US
Personal Spending Mar: 4.2% (est 4.1%; prev -1.0%)

US
Real Personal Spending Mar: 3.6% (est 3.7%; prev -1.2%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Mar: 1.8% (est 1.8%; prev 1.4%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Mar: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%)

US
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Mar: 2.3% (est 2.3%; prev 1.6%)

US
PCE Deflator (M/M) Mar: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.2%)

Canadian
GDP (M/M) Feb: 0.4% (est 0.5%; prev 0.7%)

Canadian
GDP (Y/Y) Feb: -2.2% (est -2.3%; prev -2.3%)

Canadian
Industrial Product Price (M/M) Mar: 1.6% (est 1.6%; prev 2.6%)

Canadian
Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) Mar: 2.3% (est 2.0%; prev 6.6%)

US
Employment Cost Index Q1: 0.9% (est 0.7%; prev 0.7%)

US
Q1 Employment Cost Index Report – BLS

 

 

 

Corn

  • CBOT
    corn
    started lower only to settle limit higher in July (+25 @ 6.7325).  Synthetic settle in July was $6.8475.  Improving US weather conditions for plantings did little to slow fund buying.  Nearby expiring May corn was up 38 cents to $7.40 per bushel.  For the
    week July corn was up 40.75 cents or 6.4% and up 5 consecutive weeks.   The USD was up 65 points as of 1:20 pm CT. 
  • There
    were no fresh import tenders reported overnight but we are hearing China bought new crop corn this past week that went unreported. 
  • Safras
    & Mercado estimated the Brazil corn crop at 104.1 million tons, 8% below their previous forecast.  Second crop corn was pegged at 70.7 million tons. 
  • The
    BA Grains Exchange pegged Argentina corn harvesting at 19%, below a 5-year average of 30%. They left their Argentina corn production unchanged 46MMT (USDA @ 47). 
  • US
    ethanol biofuel RIN’s closed at $1.53 Thursday, highest on record. Today they were down slightly for both ethanol and biodiesel. 
  • On
    Friday, the funds bought an estimated net 55,000 corn contracts.
  • China
    will exempt some imported seeds from value-added tax until the end of 2025 – Ministry of Finance via Reuters. 
  • Latest
    China PMI data suggested the economy is slowing. 51.1 was reported for April, down from 51.9 in March.   
  • France
    planted 74 percent of the expected corn crop, up from 41 previous week and ahead of a five-year average of 68 percent. 
  • Ukraine
    spring grain plantings are 39 percent complete as of April 29. 

 

 

 

USDA
attaché reports Рnote on China ASF

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Delayed%20Expansion%20in%20Chinese%20Swine%20Herd_Beijing_China%20-%20People%27s%20Republic%20of_04-22-2021