most ag futures appreciated on ongoing concerns over shrinking supplies. CFTC showed the managed fund positions less long than expected. Next week we will start to see new crop analyst estimates for the upcoming May USDA report.
CME is resetting price limits for grain, soybean complex and lumber futures on May 2. For example, corn to 40 cents, soybeans to 1.00, wheat to 45.
RAISES CORN FUTURES (C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 7.9% TO $2,050 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,900 FOR MAY 2021
INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF MAINTENANCE MARGIN RATES
RATES WILL BE EFFECTIVE AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON MAY 3, 2021
SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 7.2% TO $4,100 PER CONTRACT FROM $3,825 FOR MAY 2021
INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF MAINTENANCE MARGIN RATES
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:
periods of rain and sunshine in the U.S. Midwest during the next two weeks will prove beneficial for spring planting and early crop development. Too much rain in the Delta might induce some flooding and some crop damage.
South America, Argentina’s weather is still favorable for late season summer crop development and drier weather through the coming weekend will improve maturation and harvest conditions after recent rain. Brazil weather will be dry keeping a great amount of
concern over long term Safrinha corn production potentials.
in Western Europe will see improved weather and some warming this week will help support better corn, sunseed and other spring and summer crop planting in southwestern Europe. Western Ukraine weather will remain inclement for planting of summer crops and the
same is true for parts of Eastern Europe.
rapeseed will experience better weather over the coming week with less frequent rain and some warmer weather, but too much moisture during much of the spring likely reduced production and quality. Spring planting of other coarse grain and oilseeds in the south
will improve with warmer temperatures and less rain for a while. China’s outlook may not be ideal, but it should improve for spring planting. Northern China planting weather is good.
harvest of winter coarse grain and oilseeds will advance well during the next two weeks. Australia’s canola planting will begin soon, but some rain is needed first – at least in some areas. Dry conditions in Australia will prevail for a while longer, but some
showers will develop in the southwest late this week and throughout Western Australia early next week.
Asia oil palm production areas are experiencing a mostly good environment for crop development and little change is expected, despite some drier biased weather for a while.
canola planting should begin soon, but dryness and cold temperatures will be a concern for a while along with the potential for some cool weather in May.
weather today will likely maintain support for the marketplace, but improving U.S. weather conditions may take some of the bullishness down a bit. Brazil is still the biggest potential problem area, though.
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: Concern over dryness in the southwestern U.S. Plains will continue over the next week to ten days, although some showers are expected in this coming week. Rain is needed to support crops as they move toward reproduction. Dryness
is also an ongoing concern for Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains where some increase in rainfall is expected during May. Poor seed germination and plant emergence will occur in spring wheat areas of Canada and the northern Plains without improving
forecast in Australia is advertised to bring showers to many wheat and barley production areas during the coming ten days. Any precipitation would be welcome and good for moistening topsoil moisture ahead of planting, but greater amounts will still be needed.
conditions in Europe and the western CIS are fair to good, although recent cold weather in Europe caused some concern over a few crops. Rainy weather in western Russia and parts of Ukraine has been raising concern over winter crop conditions and early season
harvest is moving along well while China’s wheat is rated favorably. Some spring planting is under way in northern China and it should advance well.
Africa wheat is in mostly good shape, but rain is needed in northwestern Algeria and southwestern Morocco. The best crops are in northern Morocco and that will not change for a while.
weather today is likely to have a mixed influence on market mentality.
World Weather, Inc.
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
corn for ethanol, soybean crush, DDGS production, 3pm
Costa Rica monthly coffee exports
Cotton Advisory Committee updates world supply and demand outlook
Coast cocoa arrivals
U.K., Japan, China, Vietnam, Thailand
Zealand global dairy trade auction
Bunge, Andersons, Minerva
Japan, China, Thailand
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
May 1-5 palm oil export data
Zealand Commodity Price
World Food Price Index
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
of Rouen data on French grain exports
customs publishes trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
monthly report on Chinese grains & oilseeds
Statcan to issue wheat, canola, barley and durum stockpile data
weekly update on crop conditions
Bloomberg and FI
to WASDE starting May
with the May 12, 2021 release (issue No. 612), the following changes will be made to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report:
Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (page 15): “Biofuel” will replace “Biodiesel” in the soybean oil section, reflecting recent changes to the monthly biofuels data reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The WASDE will follow soybean oil
used for biofuel as reported in the Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks Update – Table 2C (PDF, 287 KB).
Soybean Meal Supply and Use (page 29): Soybean meal supply and use for China will be presented separately.
U.S. Rice Supply and Use table (page 14): The table will include separate categories for U.S. imports of long-grain and combined medium and short-grain rice. The addition is made due to the significant rise in U.S. imports of long-grain and medium- and short-grain
rice over the past decade.
United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 1, 2021; the trade bloc now has 27 member states instead of 28. Beginning with the January 2021 WASDE report, the heading for the EU-28 region will change from “European Union” to “EU-27+UK”. Starting
May 2021, (when projections for the new Marketing Year are released), the UK data will be disaggregated from the regional total and presented separately in the report, where applicable.
FND (released Thursday night)
Commitment of Traders
were no notable record positions this week. SBO prices have managed to climb substantially despite the net fun position unable to test its record long position established 2016. Managed money for corn is near a recent record. Managed money for Chicago wheat
ticked higher with nearby prices at highs not seen since 2012. As we said in the past, we caution taking the daily estimate of funds literally, rather look at the momentum of buying. Funds estimates missed the corn position by most for the week ending April
27 in our recorded history dating back to 2012.
cut corn net long position-CFTC – Reuters News
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
335,631 -19,286 413,831 -2,948 -733,660 21,448
133,912 924 183,053 9,994 -320,269 -11,244
57,308 -3,850 120,794 5,846 -197,028 -1,566
wheat -18,508 6,831 160,331 1,671 -131,321 -10,531
wheat 13,528 6,699 68,666 5,058 -81,151 -9,838
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
378,663 -5,336 239,774 -1,299 -710,596 18,036
180,014 7,470 71,146 2,279 -283,625 -6,847
54,086 6,039 74,657 -532 -188,549 -7,517
92,587 2,595 105,756 2,752 -218,831 -146
wheat 13,399 11,816 80,823 -5,530 -105,929 -6,036
wheat 30,038 11,292 45,405 649 -74,720 -9,374
wheat 14,079 1,962 3,480 -189 -28,435 -2,995
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
wheat 57,516 25,070 129,708 -5,070 -209,084 -18,405
cattle 54,895 -16,424 85,543 -171 -157,997 10,079
cattle 679 -1,569 7,763 67 -2,574 230
hogs 71,117 -2,129 59,136 -551 -136,454 3,188
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
107,963 -12,188 -15,803 785 2,399,229 -148,475
29,160 -3,229 3,303 327 1,167,102 -82,399
26,423 1,867 33,383 141 459,296 -17,824
1,562 -4,770 18,925 -431 572,191 -49,898
wheat 22,209 -2,280 -10,502 2,030 548,366 -196
wheat 321 -647 -1,044 -1,919 237,214 3,537
wheat 3,302 1,955 7,574 -733 84,487 2,877
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
wheat 25,832 -972 -3,972 -622 870,067 6,218
cattle 24,563 2,323 -7,004 4,193 377,095 -399
cattle 3,934 109 -9,802 1,162 55,554 2,643
hogs 13,846 -74 -7,644 -433 343,649 2,684
Personal Income Mar: 21.1% (est 20.2%; prevR -7.0%; prev -7.1%)
Personal Spending Mar: 4.2% (est 4.1%; prev -1.0%)
Real Personal Spending Mar: 3.6% (est 3.7%; prev -1.2%)
PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Mar: 1.8% (est 1.8%; prev 1.4%)
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Mar: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%)
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Mar: 2.3% (est 2.3%; prev 1.6%)
PCE Deflator (M/M) Mar: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.2%)
GDP (M/M) Feb: 0.4% (est 0.5%; prev 0.7%)
GDP (Y/Y) Feb: -2.2% (est -2.3%; prev -2.3%)
Industrial Product Price (M/M) Mar: 1.6% (est 1.6%; prev 2.6%)
Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) Mar: 2.3% (est 2.0%; prev 6.6%)
Employment Cost Index Q1: 0.9% (est 0.7%; prev 0.7%)
Q1 Employment Cost Index Report – BLS
started lower only to settle limit higher in July (+25 @ 6.7325). Synthetic settle in July was $6.8475. Improving US weather conditions for plantings did little to slow fund buying. Nearby expiring May corn was up 38 cents to $7.40 per bushel. For the
week July corn was up 40.75 cents or 6.4% and up 5 consecutive weeks. The USD was up 65 points as of 1:20 pm CT.
were no fresh import tenders reported overnight but we are hearing China bought new crop corn this past week that went unreported.
& Mercado estimated the Brazil corn crop at 104.1 million tons, 8% below their previous forecast. Second crop corn was pegged at 70.7 million tons.
BA Grains Exchange pegged Argentina corn harvesting at 19%, below a 5-year average of 30%. They left their Argentina corn production unchanged 46MMT (USDA @ 47).
ethanol biofuel RIN’s closed at $1.53 Thursday, highest on record. Today they were down slightly for both ethanol and biodiesel.
Friday, the funds bought an estimated net 55,000 corn contracts.
will exempt some imported seeds from value-added tax until the end of 2025 – Ministry of Finance via Reuters.
China PMI data suggested the economy is slowing. 51.1 was reported for April, down from 51.9 in March.
planted 74 percent of the expected corn crop, up from 41 previous week and ahead of a five-year average of 68 percent.
spring grain plantings are 39 percent complete as of April 29.
attaché reports – note on China ASF