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lower trade on weekend positioning and improving SA and North American weather. There was also heavy option call selling bias corn and soybeans. Look for a lower trade early next week if fundamentals are little changed.



estimates as of April 21




Daily Total Soil Moisture (mm)



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Weather Inc.


  • Thailand
    continues to receive less than usual pre-monsoonal precipitation raising some concern over sugarcane, rice and corn development
    • Some
      increase in precipitation is expected in this next ten days, although grater rain may still be required
  • Australia
    sugarcane production areas have also experienced less than usual rainfall in recent weeks and months
    • The
      drier than usual bias will likely continue for an extended period of time
  • Spain
    and Portugal as well as North Africa crop areas will continue to be drier than usual over the next ten days, although a few showers will be possible
  • Argentina
    rainfall will continue lighter than usual through the next two weeks resulting in a very good environment for summer crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Some
      periodic rain is anticipated, but the disruptions to fieldwork will be brief and no harm will come to summer crop conditions
  • Brazil
    weather will continue to be favorable over the next two weeks
    • Timely
      rainfall is expected in Mato Grosso during the next week to ten days favoring Safrinha cotton and corn development
    • Soil
      moisture elsewhere will be sufficient to carry on normal crop development in areas where corn, rice, sugarcane, coffee and citrus is still developing
    • Winter
      crop planting should advance swiftly
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will get welcome rainfall during the next ten days
    • Three
      waves of rain will bring moisture to all of the production region.
      • 0.50
        to 1.50 inches will be common with amounts of 1.50 to nearly 3.00 inches possible in eastern parts of central Kansas and central Oklahoma by the end of this month
        • The
          greatest amounts may not be widespread, but all of the moisture will be good for improved wheat development and for the planting and emergence of summer crops
  • U.S.
    Northeastern Plains and Upper Midwest crop areas will continue to deal with flooding for a while and the current storm system in the region will diminish from west to east later today and Saturday
    • Another
      upper level low pressure center will bring cloudiness, periods of rain and some wet snow late next week and into the following weekend
      • After
        this system passes the upper Midwest and northeastern Plains, as well as eastern Canada’s Prairies will see less precipitation and warmer temperatures – at least for a while
  • U.S.
    Delta is expecting more rain today and then additional moisture during mid-week next week and possibly again in the following weekend
    • The
      moisture will occur often enough to slow some fieldwork, but some field progress will occur around the moisture
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next ten days
  • Cold
    temperatures in the north half of the U.S. Plains and Midwest this weekend will not induce any serious harm to winter crops and most early emerging summer crops may not be seriously impacted
    • However,
      some of the early emerged corn fields may not perform well for a while due to cool temperatures that will dominate the next couple of weeks
  • California
    and the southwestern desert region will be dry and warm for an extended period of time
  • Brief
    periods of rain and mountain snow will impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest during the coming week followed by drier biased weather in the last week of this month
  • U.S.
    temperatures will be colder than usual over a bit part of the nation during this first week of the outlook and then the cooler bias will shift to the east allowing the western states to trend warmer
    • Early
      May temperatures are advertised to be much closer to normal
  • Drought
    will continue in the southwestern Canadian Prairies, although a few brief bouts of very light precipitation are expected
  • Western
    Canada’s Prairies will warm up nicely next week resulting in aggressive fieldwork due to limited precipitation
    • Planting
      will increase across much of Alberta, despite ongoing dryness in parts of the east-central and interior south
      • However,
        additional delays in planting are probable for the areas with the absolute worst moisture profile in east-central and interior southern Alberta
  • Eastern
    Canada’s Prairies will experience more snow today and then drier weather through the first half of next week
    • A
      new storm system may generate additional wet weather late next week and into the following weekend further delaying the opportunity for spring fieldwork
  • India’s
    weather will be favorable in this first week of the outlook, but the second week forecast could end up wet and stormy with cooler than usual temperatures
    • There
      is time for this forecast to change, but the situation needs to be closely monitored because of the potential wet and stormy conditions would have on unharvested winter crops
  • Northern
    Kazakhstan and western portions of the eastern Russia New Lands are expecting drier and warmer biased weather beginning next week and lasting for a week to perhaps ten days
    • The
      drying bias will firm the soil and warm it in support of spring planting
    • Timely
      rain will become imperative for crops once they are planted due to lower soil moisture that is expected to be prevailing at that time
  • Most
    of Europe and the western CIS outside of the Iberian Peninsula and parts of the Russian New Lands are experiencing favorable crop weather with little change likely for a while
    • Temperatures
      will continue near to above normal in southwestern Europe and over portions of the western CIS with cool conditions in between
  • Excessive
    soil moisture and some flooding evolved recently near and south of China’s Yangtze River and additional precipitation is forthcoming
    • Damage
      may have occurred to some rapeseed, rice and other crops in the region, although most of the impact should have been localized
  • Xinjiang,
    China has turned warmer in recent days improving cotton, corn and other spring and summer crop planting conditions
    • Northeast
      parts of the province will see waves of rain and cooler weather over the next two weeks while weather in western production areas are mostly dry and warm, although not quite as warm as usual
  • Yunnan,
    China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops
    • The
      province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought
    • Dryness
      will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada soil temperatures warmed in favor or new wheat development recently, but cooling is expected in the coming week to ten days that will shut down new crop development and lower soil temperatures
  • Middle
    East rainfall is expected most often in Turkey while most other areas receive only infrequent showers
    • Cotton
      and rice planting have benefitted from recent rain
    • Winter
      crops will fill favorably, but drier weather may soon be needed to protect grain quality
  • Australia
    precipitation has been limited recently, but rain will evolve in the south next week to moisten the topsoil once again and allow better planting and emergence conditions.
    • Favorable
      summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected in the east-central parts of the nation
    • Western
      Australia is the state to watch for possible drying in the next few weeks, although southern areas will get a little rain early next week
  • South
    Africa precipitation should be restricted for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia are still in need of greater rain, although the situation is not critical
    • Poor
      pre-monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity has been occurring in many areas and improved rainfall will soon be needed
      • This
        is impacting some early season sugarcane, rice and coffee development as well as other crops
      • Thailand
        is among the drier areas
    • Some
      improved rainfall is expected over the coming week
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia weather has been lighter than usual due to the negative phase of Madden Julian Oscillation, but a change is expected that will allow improving rainfall to evolve gradually over the next week to ten days
  • Cotton
    areas from Mali to Burkina Faso have not seen a normal start to the rainy season this year; rain is needed to support planting
    • Some
      rain will fall in the second week of the outlook especially in Burkina Faso
    • Other
      west-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms
  • East-central
    Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
  • Mexico
    remains in a drought, though eastern and far southern parts of the nation will get some periodic rain
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -0.95 and it should move notably lower over the next few days.

World Weather, INC.


of Traders

were less long for corn, soybeans and soybean oil while less short than expected for wheat and more short than expected for soybean oil.  We don’t see a price impact from the weekly COT report.