PDF Attached

 

 

 

USDA
report day – US S&D’s attached

 

USDA
released their April supply and demand outlook 

 

Reaction: 
Neutral
to friendly feedgrains and neutral to slightly bearish soybeans.  We tightened up our trading range for May soybeans & corn and raised our trading ranges for all three US wheat contracts. 

 

USDA
OCE Secretary Briefing

https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/april-2021-wasde-lockup-briefing.pdf

 

CBOT
soybeans trended lower post USDA report and wheat trimmed gains.  CBOT corn sold off post USDA report which created a buying opportunity for some longs.  Prices dipped as USDA made a less than expected upward adjustment to US exports by only 75 million bushels
(trade was looking for 100-to-200-million-bushel increase). USDA’s outlook on 2020-21 corn exports indicated we could see some current crop year corn commitments rolled into new-crop at the end of the marketing season, or USDA acknowledging actual corn shipments
need to increase in order to convince the government US corn exports could reach commitment potential.  US corn stocks dropped a more than expected 150 million bushels.  Corn for feed was upward revised 50 and food use was down 25.  They lifted corn for ethanol
by 25 million bushels, a surprise in our opinion.  Corn exports were taken up only 75 as we mentioned.  World corn stocks were lowered 3.8 million tons to 283.9 million, 19.1 million tons below 2019-20.  Argentina corn production was lowered 0.5 million tons
to 47 million. Brazil was left unchanged at 109 million tons. 

 

 

US
soybean stocks were unchanged but USDA did tinker with demand, by taking exports up 30 million bushels, offset by 10 million bushels lower crush, 2-million-bushel lower seed and 17 million downward revision in residual.  US soybean oil food was up 400 million
pounds, and biodiesel use lowered 400 million.  This could be a glimpse of what USDA is thinking for soybean oil for renewable biodiesel use.  Next month USDA will add biofuel use, replacing soybean oil for biodiesel use.  USDA made a bearish move by raising
Brazil exports by 1 million tons to 86 million tons of soybeans for 2020-21.  Brazil soybean production was taken up 2 million tons to 136 million while Argentina was left unchanged at 47.5 million tons. 

 

 

All-wheat
US stocks were raised 16 mil bu, 5 above trade expectations.  Wheat imports were lowered 10 million bushels and feed was taken down 25 million to 100 million bushels.  We think feed could be trimmed another 10 million in the next report.  By class HRW wheat
stocks were upward revised 28 million bushels, and durum, HRS & SRW wheat stocks were each lowered 5 million bushels. 

 

World
wheat production was lowered 300,000 tons and world stocks decreased a large 5.7 million tons to 295.5 million, 4.5 million below 2019-20.  USDA noted “World 2020/21

consumption
is increased 5.1 million tons to 781.0 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for China. Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks continue to be large and domestic corn prices in China remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to further
increase China’s 2020/21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tons to a record 40.0 million.”

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD

  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha corn areas are still drying down and little change will occur for ten days with the exception of central and northern Mato Grosso where a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected
    • Crop
      stress will slowly intensify over the forecast period
    • Showers
      that occur April 19-24 are unlikely to bring a soaking rain leaving soil moisture short to very short in some areas which is not good with monsoonal precipitation ending shortly thereafter
      • Fear
        of dryness during reproduction is still running very high
      • 60%
        of the corn crop was planted after the Feb. 20 optimum yield date and 15-20% of the crop was planted very late suggesting reproduction will not occur until the second half of May
        • Limited
          crop moisture will surely impact production this year
  • Argentina’s
    rain this week has been locally heavy and will continue into Saturday resulting in some areas of flooding
    • Local
      flooding has already occurred in a part of central Santa Fe reporting 2.00 to more than 6.00 inches of rain overnight
    • Too
      much rain could harm crop conditions and delay harvesting, but it is early enough in the season for conditions to improve enough without harming crops
      • Drier
        weather is needed over an extended period of time, though, to ensure crops do not suffer from too much moisture
  • Central
    U.S. temperatures will fall notably below average in the coming week to ten days with April 13-19 coldest in the Plains and western Midwest and April 16-20 coldest in the eastern Midwest
    • Frost
      and freezes will impact many areas in the central and northern Plains as well as the heart of the Midwest, although the heart of the Midwest will not see the coldest weather for at least a week
    • No
      permanent damage to wheat will occur in the Plains or Midwest
      • Extreme
        lows in hard red winter wheat areas will slip to the middle and upper 20s Saturday and again next week
  • Eastern
    Canada Prairies and a part of northern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota will get some snow and rain late this weekend into early next week to help improve soil moisture for planting later this month
  • Southwestern
    Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains will remain drought ridden for the next ten days, despite a few light showers
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest needs moisture too with central Washington through the heart of Oregon still much too dry for unirrigated winter crops
  • Additional
    rain in U.S. Delta this weekend will further delay field work, but drier weather at times in the following week will help get fieldwork back under way
  • West
    Texas may get some rain next week to briefly moisten the topsoil, but much more rain will still be needed to induce the best planting conditions in May and early June
  • South
    Texas drought continues and very little rain of significance is expected for a while, although a few showers will be possible periodically
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next couple of weeks
  • Recent
    warm and dry weather in the U.S. eastern Midwest has accelerated net drying in the topsoil, but conditions are still very good for early season planting and germination
    • Fieldwork
      may be slowed with the prospects of colder weather coming after April 15
  • California
    and the southwestern desert region will remain dry and in need of significant moisture, but irrigation is sufficient to carry on most agricultural needs
    • No
      relief is expected in the coming week, but some showers may occur in a part of the region After April 18
  • At
    0900 GMT, Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located 306 miles west northwest of Learmonth, Western Australia at 19.95 south, 109.2 east moving southwesterly at 11 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 63 mph
    • The
      storm will move inland near Geraldton, Western Australia Sunday producing heavy rain and strong wind speeds along the coast
    • Beneficial
      moisture will fall in wheat, barley and canola production areas of Western Australia where planting will begin late this month
  • Most
    interior crop areas of Australia will not be bothered by significant rain this week
    • Rain
      in Western Australia late this weekend and early next week will be dependent upon the tropical cyclone noted above
    • Good
      drying conditions are likely in key summer grain, oilseed and cotton areas in Eastern Australia this week favoring summer crop maturation and good harvest progress.
  • Frost
    and freezes in Europe are not permanently harming winter wheat, barley, rye or rapeseed, although new growth is being burned back
    • Warming
      is needed to stimulate new winter crop development and spring planting
    • Rain
      and snow across the continent will increase soil moisture for use by crops during the warmer days of late April and May
  • Western
    Europe will receive some needed rain this weekend
    • The
      precipitation will be erratic and somewhat light leaving need for more moisture
    • Next
      week trends drier once again and some warming is expected
  • CIS
    grain and oilseed areas will continue plenty moist except in Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan where there is need for more moisture this spring and summer
    • Winter
      crops are still dormant or semi-dormant, although a little greening may be occurring in the far south
    • Significant
      warming is expected this weekend and early next week that will more significantly melt snow and warm soil temperatures
      • Some
        improved planting conditions may evolve in parts of Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region and winter crops will break dormancy a little more significantly because of the warmth
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience a net boost in precipitation over the next few weeks that will improve corn planting conditions and maintain an improving trend in sugarcane, rice and coffee production areas
    • Some
      beneficial rain fell across parts of this region recently, but southern areas are still dry
  • Philippines
    weather is good for most crops, but a boost in rainfall would be welcome
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia crop weather is expected to be mostly good for the next ten days to two weeks with most areas getting rain
    • Flooding
      in Timor and Flores is abating after serious crop and property damage occurred during the weekend from a developing tropical cyclone
  • India
    weather will continue good for this time of year with restricted rainfall and warm temperatures supporting winter crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Rain
      may fall heavily in Bangladesh and neighboring areas of India briefly next week
  • China
    weather remains mostly very good, although portions of the Yangtze River Basin are too wet and need to dry down
    • Northern
      crop areas in China are favorably moist and poised to support aggressive winter and spring crop development this year once additional warming takes place
  • North
    Africa will experience a favorable mix of weather over the next ten days, although resulting rainfall is not likely to be very great
    • All
      of the moisture will be welcome, but resulting amounts may be a little erratic and light leaving need for more moisture
    • Northwestern
      Algeria and southwestern Morocco need rain
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • West-central
    Africa coffee and cocoa weather has been very good recently and that is not likely to change much for a while; some rice and sugarcane has benefited from the pattern as well
    • Rainfall
      will be a little lighter and less frequent than usual over for a while longer, but improved rainfall should occur in the April 16-22 period
    • Temperatures
      have been and will continue to be very warm keeping evaporation rates very strong until greater rain evolves
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall has been erratic recently and a boost in precipitation should come to Ethiopia this month while Tanzania slowly begins to dry down
  • South
    Africa weather will continue favorably for early maturing summer crops and the development of late season crops
    • Net
      drying is expected for a while which will support faster crop maturation and will eventually support early season harvest progress
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual and that will dry out the soil relatively quickly
  • New
    Zealand weather has been drier than usual and precipitation will slowly improve during the next week to ten days in both North Island and western parts of South Island
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • Southeastern
    Canada will see below average precipitation and warmer than usual temperatures over the next ten days
  • Mexico
    precipitation will continue limited to a few eastern and far southern locations during the next week to ten days
    • Rain
      is needed in many areas
    • Drought
      is prevailing across most of the nation
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index this morning was +0.93 and the index will move in a narrow range through next week with slight rise in the index.

Source:
World Weather inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
April 9:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
April 12:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton, 4pm
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board data on March end-stocks, output, exports
  • Malaysia’s
    April 1-10 palm oil export data from SGS
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
April 13:

  • China
    customs to publish trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
  • France’s
    agriculture ministry updates on 2021 crop plantings
  • Malaysian
    Cocoa Board releases 1Q 2021 cocoa grinding numbers
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Wednesday,
April 14:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Unica’s
    data on cane crush and sugar production in Brazil’s center-south region (tentative)
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly grains report
  • European
    Cocoa Association’s quarterly grind data (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    India, Bangladesh, Thailand

Thursday,
April 15:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Malaysia’s
    April 1-15 palm oil export data
  • The
    U.S. National Confectionery Association releases first quarter cocoa grinding data for North America
  • USDA
    updates monthly North American sugar and sweeteners outlook
  • White
    sugar May contract expires
  • New
    Zealand food prices
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Friday,
April 16:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • Cocoa
    Association of Asia releases 1Q 2021 cocoa grinding data
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

 

 

 

 

 

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