FI Evening Grain Comments 03/29/22

PDF Attached do not include daily estimate of funds. FI export sales estimates attached.

 

News
headlines over the talks between Ukraine and Russia today sent wheat and other commodities sharply lower early but many markets rebounded from ongoing concerns Russia will not withdraw troops from Ukraine anytime soon. Russia promised to scale down military
operations but it does not appear a ceasefire was reached.

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH

• No
  major changes occurred overnight
• U.S.
  Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin will continue to  receive frequent precipitation and the region’s mild to cool temperatures will keep evaporation rates low so that the  wet bias already in place remains for a while
• Expect
  planting delays from the lower Midwest into the Delta and Tennessee River Basin this spring
• Dryness
  will remain a concern for West and South Texas where little to no  rain is expected for the next ten days to two weeks and the ground is already critically  dry
• California’s
  rain Monday favored the central and lower coast more than the Sierra Nevada resulting in short term soil moisture increases, but no long-term drought relief
• Runoff
  from mountain snowpack is expected to be below normal this spring and summer leaving water reservoir levels below normal and keeping water restrictions on for the foreseeable future
• U.S.
  high Plains region will continue dry biased for the next couple of weeks, although a few showers may impact a part of the region
• The
  dry region runs from western Texas to Montana and the  western most Dakotas
• U.S.
  northwestern Plains and southwestern Canada’s Prairies remain in a serious drought with little relief expected over the next few weeks.
• U.S.
  Pacific Northwest precipitation continues below normal with little change likely for a while
• Flooding
  in U.S. is mostly confined to parts of the Red River Basin in the North, the Midwest and Delta with most of it rated minor to moderate.
  
• Cool
  weather will continue to come and go frequently in eastern North America and across Europe during the next ten days to two  weeks
• Winter
  crop development will be slower than usual  because of cool weather
• Snow
  and rain will accumulate significantly from central Europe through west-central Russia and northwestern Ukraine during the next week to ten days
• Livestock
  stress and travel delays are expected because of the snow
• Melting
  snow later this spring may induce flooding in at least a part of western Russia as significant snow accumulation melts while the ground is saturated and rivers and streams are running high
• Cool
  weather will restrict snow melt during the next ten days delaying the potential flood event until later this spring
• The
  combination of new precipitation and moisture abundance will maintain wet field conditions in many areas
• There
  is need for drier and warmer weather especially in April when spring planting occurs in many areas.
  
• Heavy
  snow will fall from western Ukraine and southeastern Belarus to the Ural Mountains with accumulations of 4 to 15 inches and possibly more
• this
  may lead to more flooding in April as the snow melts over saturated soil
• Mexico’s
  dryness and drought have been expanding this winter due to poor precipitation resulting from persistent La Nina
• The
  region will continue lacking precipitation for an expected period of time
• Eastern
  and southern Mexico will remain seasonably dry this week and will only receive light rainfall next week
• Argentina
  rainfall over the next ten days to two weeks will be restricted to east-central and northeastern parts of the nation
• Sufficient
  rain will fall in these areas to maintain moisture abundance
• Net
  drying is expected in western Argentina
• Soil
  moisture is sufficient to carry on normal crop, despite limited new moisture
• Temperatures
  will be near to below normal this week
• Bahia
  and the northern two-thirds of Minas Gerais will continue dry biased for the next ten days to two weeks
• The
  region is already considered to be too dry and moisture stress for minor corn, soybean, sugarcane and coffee areas is rising
  
• moisture
  stress may lead to some negative impact on late season crops
• Most
  other areas in Brazil will get rain over the next ten days to two weeks with some of it likely to be excessive.
  
• Tonight,
  and Wednesday of this week and again Sunday and Monday will be the two wettest periods in the south, although a third period of rain April 7-9 will perpetuate the wet bias
• Drier
  weather will be needed from northeastern Argentina through Rio Grande do Sul and southern Paraguay to southern and eastern Mato Grosso  do  Sul, Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo to protect late season crop development
• Temperatures
  will be near normal with a slight cooler bias in the wetter areas
• Safrinha
  crops will have plenty of moisture going through much of April this year, but the wetter areas will need drying to promote harvesting of full season crops and to limit any crop quality declines because of too much moisture.
  
• China’s
  precipitation in the east-central and southeastern provinces will be less frequent and less significant this week after Wednesday and especially next week allowing the ground to firm up
• This
  change will improve spring planting and early season winter and spring crop development
• India
  rainfall will be confined to a few far southern crop areas and in the far Eastern States during the next two weeks while most other areas are dry and warm biased
• Temperatures
  will be near to above normal – warmest relative to normal in the north
• Good
  winter crop maturation and harvest conditions are expected
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall will continue frequent and abundant
• No
  area in the  mainland areas, Philippines, Indonesia or Malaysia are expected to be too dry
• Too
  much rain may impact northeastern Philippines late this weekend into next week
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will continue greatest in Tanzania, although parts of Uganda and Kenya will get rain periodically as well.
  
• Ethiopia
  rainfall should be most sporadic and light
• West-central
  Africa rainfall will continue periodically and sufficient to support coffee and cocoa development
• Rainfall
  so far this month has been a little sporadic, but no area has been seriously dry biased
• Pockets
  in Ivory Coast and western Ghana have received less than usual rain, but crop development has advanced well
  
• North
  Africa rainfall will be greatest Tuesday through Thursday of this week and again early to mid-week next week in Morocco and northwestern Algeria
• Crop
  conditions will improve as a result of the rain
• Australia
  reported rain in both the eastern and western most crop areas during the weekend and again Monday.
  
• Flooding
  rain occurred along the Pacific Coast near the Queensland and New South Wales border where excessive rain reaching over 12.00 inches resulted
• This
  same region flooded earlier this month
• Western
  Australia rain totals Monday varied from 0.05 to 1.07 inches
• The
  precipitation was associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Charlotte that dissipated last week
• Western
  Australia will continue to receive periods of rain through the weekend, although much of it will now become light and sporadic
• The
  additional moisture will further boaster topsoil moisture for use in the autumn wheat, barley and canola planting season that begins in late April
• Eastern
  Australia precipitation is expected to become quite limited the remainder of this week bringing on a better environment for cotton in the open boll stage of development
• The
  drier weather will also be good for early season planting which begins soon
• Irrigated
  late season sorghum and other crops will continue to develop favorably
• Some
  of the dryland crop that is still immature still needs greater moisture
• South
  Africa rainfall over the next couple of weeks will be less frequent and less significant resulting in a very good environment for early season crop maturation and harvesting
• some
  timely rainfall in April will prove to be beneficial for late season crops only if it is brief and light
• Colombia,
  Ecuador, western Venezuela and parts of Peru will remain plenty wet during the next ten days
• Frequent
  rain is expected
• The
  moisture will be great for coffee and cocoa flowering and well as support of all crops
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index is +12.49 
• The
  index will move lower over the next seven days
• Central
  America precipitation will be greatest along the Caribbean Coast during the next seven to ten days and in both Panama and Costa Rica
• Guatemala
  will also get some showers periodically

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
March 29:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Department releases March export data for coffee, rice and rubber

Wednesday,
March 30:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• USDA
  hogs and pigs inventory, 3pm

Thursday,
March 31:

• U.S.
  annual acreage prospective planting data for various farm commodities, including wheat, barley, corn, cotton, soybeans and sunflower, noon
• USDA
  quarterly stockpile data for wheat, barley, corn, oats, soybeans and sorghum, noon
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, 3pm
• Malaysia’s
  March palm oil export data

Friday,
April 1:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Reuters
trade estimates for USDA

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisory

Estimated
2022 U.S. Corn Acreage 91.5 mac, Soybeans 88.5 mac

2021/22
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 123.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Brazil Corn Estimates Unchanged at 112.0 Million tons

2021/22
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 39.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Corn Estimate Unchanged at 49.0 Million Tons

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures traded lower, by limit earlier, before pairing some losses, settling down 22.25 cents basis the May position at $7.2525. Headline trading was the main driver. Ukraine/Russia talks sent mixed signals to the market.
WTI was $1.46 lower by 2 pm CT and USD off 69 points.  Turkey bought optional origin corn.

·        
May CBOT corn
failed to trade at $7.50 after trading at the level last 18 consecutive session.

·        
Texas reported 51 percent of their corn crop planted, above a 5-year average of 46 percent. Corn planting was 51% complete in Louisiana, 5% complete in Mississippi and 2% complete in Arkansas. (Reuters)

·        
Fertilizer prices are around a record according to a Bloomberg story, adding to food inflation and leaving some second guessing the size of the US corn planted area.

·        
Anec sees Brazil corn exports reaching 103,278 tons for the month of March, down from 110,000 previous. 

·        
Argentina farmers sold 19.5 million tons of corn for the 2021-22 season, according to AgMin data. That is up  744,000 tons for the week ending March 23. Argentina may produce 49 million tons this season.

·        
Ukraine producers late last week started planting on 15-20% of the planned area according to Ukraine.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 5,000 barrels to 1.037 million (1.025-1.051 range) from the previous week and stocks up 137,000 barrels to 26.285 million.

 

 

 

EIA:
Crude oil exports from other countries may pass through Russian infrastructure

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51838&src=email

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey’s
  TMO bought 100,000 tons of corn out of 300-325k sought for optional origin shipment between April 8 and May 5. They paid $400.87/ton C&F and $407.87/ton.
  

 

Updated
3/23/22

May
corn is seen in a $6.75 and $8.10 range

December
corn is seen in a wide $5.50-$7.50 range

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT May
soybeans, meal, and soybean ended lower in another risk off trade, lower outside related commodity markets and ongoing Covid-19 lockdown concerns in China. 

·        
SX held the 50 DMA.

·        
Anec sees Brazil soybean exports reaching 12.957 million tons for the month of March, up from 12.9 million previous.

·        
Investment bank Itau BBA expects Brazil 2022-23 soybean plantings to expand only 0.5%, slowest growth rate in more than 15 years. 2021-22 the area was 40.7 million hectares.

·        
Argentina farmers sold 11.5 million tons of soybeans for the 2021-22 season, according to AgMin data, for the week ending March 23. That compares to 12.8 million at same period year ago. Argentina may produce 42 million tons this
season.

·        
India paid $2,150 per ton CIF for 45,000 tons of Russian sunflower oil, a record price, for April shipment. Before the escalation in the Black Sea, India was buying sunflower oil at around $1,630/ton.

·        
Indonesia set its crude palm oil reference price for April at $1,787.5 per ton, up from March’s $1,432.24 per ton.

 

China’s
Dalian Commodity Exchange
will increase raise trading limits and margin requirements on April 6.

Source:
Reuters

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
Turkey seeks 18,000 tons of sunflower oil on Thursday.

·        
China plans to sell about 500,000 tons of soybeans on April 1.

• USDA
  seeks 2,710 tons of packaged oil on April 7 for May shipment (May 23-June 13 for plants at posts).
  
• Qatar
  seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April 4.

 

Updated
3/29/22

Soybeans
– May $15.50-$17.50 (down 50, down 50)

Soybeans
– November is seen in a wide $12.50-$16.00 range

Soybean
meal – May $430-$500 (unch, down $20)

Soybean
oil – May 68.50-74.00
(sharply
lower range)

 

 

 

Wheat

·        
Extremely wide trading range in US wheat futures left many traders positioning during the first half of the day session trade.  Some wheat contracts reached limit lower. May Chicago hit its lowest level since March 1, with a session
low of $972, $3.9150 off its absolute high of $13.6350 made on March 8.

·        
Russia promised to scale down military operations but it does not appear a ceasefire was reached.

·        
May Paris milling wheat settled down 12.25 euros, or 3.3%, at 357.50 euros ($396.22) a ton. Earlier it reached its lowest level since March 3.

·        
A delegation from Egypt will visit India early April to negotiate (large amount) wheat imports. India is also in talks with China, Turkey, Bosnia, Sudan, Nigeria and Iran. SK bought India wheat recently. 

·        
Kansas’s winter wheat crop saw a good improvement in combined good/excellent conditions from the previous week to 32 percent from 25 percent. Oklahoma was rated 18 percent, down from 21 percent week earlier and Texas 7 percent,
up one point from last week. CO was rated 11 percent, a decline from 19 percent week earlier. NE was rated 27% versus 36% at the end of February. SD increased 2 points from late February to 26 percent.

·        
A Bloomberg article Australia was “pretty well” sold out of wheat for the first half of this year with second half available.

·        
Australia’s eastern coastal areas were again hit with heavy rain. La Nina tends to yield above average rainfall for eastern Australia.

·        
USDA Attaché sees 2022-23 Egypt’s July-June wheat imports at 11 million tons, down from 12 million tons projected for 2021-22.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Cairo_Egypt_EG2022-0009

 

 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Tunisia seeks 150,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on Wednesday. The wheat is sought for shipment between April 20 and June 25, depending on origin supplied. The barley is sought for shipment between April
25 and June 25.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat for May and/or June shipment. It might be set to close Wednesday.

·        
Taiwan seeks 40,000 tons of US wheat on March 30 for shipment off the PNW during the May 14 and May 28 period.

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of milling wheat for shipment during May, June, or July on March 31.

·        
Results awaited: Qatar seeks 105,000 tons of optional origin animal feed barley on March 27 shipment in April, May and June. 

·        
Bangladesh is in for 50,000 tons of wheat with a deadline of April 4.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Bloomberg) — Qatar is seeking to buy 1.2m bags of rice in a tender that closes April 4, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s website.  Qatar also seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April
4

 

Updated
3/29/22

Chicago
May $9.00 to $12.00 range (down 35, down 50)

KC
May $9.00 to $12.00 range (down 25m down 50)

MN
May $9.75‐$12.00 (down 25, down 100 cents)