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USDA
reported private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. Longs were dominant today in the agriculture markets. US winter wheat problems coupled by SE Asia oilmeal demand interest hinted
a higher trade. The KC/Chicago wheat spread hit a new 12-year high.

 

SX/CZ
US acreage battle far from over

 

Fund
estimates as of March 28

                    

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • North
    Africa and eastern Spain are still dry and unlikely to get much rain for the coming week impacting durum wheat and barley among other crops in Spain
    • Irrigated
      crops are likely performing well
    • Precipitation
      has been suggested for next week in a part of North Africa, but the GFS model is overdoing the precipitation and future model runs will likely remove some of the moisture
    • Production
      cuts are expected in Tunisia without some significant rain soon. Algeria and Morocco crop stress will rise as temperatures trend warmer
    • Northern
      Morocco crops are in better shape than last year at this time, but the southwest drought prevented much planting from occurring for the second year in a row
  • U.S.
    southwestern hard red winter wheat and West Texas cotton areas are still notably drought stricken with little opportunity for rain for the next ten days
  • South
    Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend rain prospects are good, but only for light showers and a general soaking is still eluding the region raising concern over dryland corn, cotton and sorghum prospects for 2023
  • U.S.
    Red River Valley and upper Midwest flood potentials remain high because of significant snowpack and little to no melting for another ten days
    • Two
      additional storms are likely in the coming week producing at least some additional rain and snowfall
      • The
        first event is expected at the end of this workweek when some significant snowfall and rain are possible from South Dakota to the western Great Lakes region
      • A
        second precipitation event is expected for late in the weekend or early next week, although it will likely be a weaker storm
    • Computer
      forecast model divergence remains significant on both of these storms and the situation will be closely monitored
    • Warmer
      temperatures and potential for some rain in April will induce significant runoff that is likely to resulting in the start of flooding
  • U.S.
    Delta, Tennessee River Basin and parts of the lower Midwest will be wet enough or too wet to advance planting in a significant manner during the next two ten days to two weeks
    • Planting
      delays are under way and will continue for a while
  • Mountain
    snowpack in California is still more than double the norm for this time of year and water reservoirs in the state are already above historical averages raising the potential for flooding this spring as the significant snowmelt raises water reservoir levels
    to full capacity warranting and significant spillage of water down the various river systems
    • Irrigated
      fruit, vegetable and other crops will likely yield better in 2023 than they did in 2022 because of improved water supply
  • Argentina
    and Brazil forecast weather has not changed today relative to recent past days
    • Argentina
      will experience some increase in precipitation late this week and mostly next week
      • In
        the meantime, fieldwork and crop maturation will advance well
    • Brazil
      will see rain in the south and in the far north maintaining favorable to abundant soil moisture
    • Center
      south Brazil continues to experience net drying which is needed to get the remaining Safrinha crops planted and support additional soybean harvesting
  • Abundant
    rain is expected in Brazil’s Amazon River Basin as well as Peru, Colombia and surrounding areas
  • Northern
    India will receive additional rainfall later this week maintaining concern over winter wheat and other crop quality
    • Dry
      and warm weather is needed to expedite crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Other
      areas in India are experiencing favorable weather for this time of year
  • Subsurface
    ocean water temperatures are warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean supporting the idea that El Nino is coming later this year
  • China’s
    North China Plain and Yellow River Basin are still advertised to receive some significant moisture next week
    • The
      event is far enough out in time to leave room for forecast models to reduce some of the intensity of rain and the situation will be closely monitored
      • The
        moisture would be a boon to wheat and barley development this early spring and could induce better spring planting conditions as well
  • China’s
    southernmost provinces (excepting Yunnan) are excessively wet and need a period of drying time to support early rice planting and other spring planting and fieldwork
    • China’s
      rapeseed crop is rated favorably
    • Southwestern
      China (mostly Yunnan) needs rain for cotton and rice planting
  • Europe
    will experience waves of rain over the next ten days to two weeks
    • Eastern
      Spain will remain one of the driest areas in the continent for a while and temperatures will be warmer than usual throughout the next ten days possibly threatening dryland winter crops and some of the planting of spring crops
    • Abundant
      moisture is likely elsewhere with “some” relief to dryness in Romania and the lower Danube River Basin during the second week of the outlook
  • Western
    CIS crop areas; including Ukraine, Belarus, far western Russia and the Baltic States will experience increasing precipitation and a continuation of wet field conditions for a while
    • Some
      flooding is expected in northern Russia where significant snowmelt is under way
  • Mexico
    drought will continue into April, although there will be some periodic opportunity for rain in eastern parts of the nation starting at mid-week this week and lasting into next week
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will continue drier than usual this week especially in the interior southwest where there is need for significant precipitation this spring in order to support planting and early crop development.
    • Precipitation
      is expected to increase during April
  • West-central
    Africa precipitation will be erratically distributed over the next few days, but it may increase next week
    • Recent
      precipitation has been erratic with some areas getting plenty of rain and others need more
    • Rain
      is expected periodically throughout the next couple of weeks with most areas getting at least some rain
      • Some
        of the rain will be locally heavy  
  • Eastern
    Australia rainfall will occur periodically over the next ten days improving soil moisture for some areas and disrupting fieldwork in other areas.
    • The
      change will be good for a few late season crops, but drier weather may be needed to protect early maturing cotton in the open boll stage
  • Central
    America rainfall will be greatest in Guatemala and from Costa Rica to Panama during the next ten days
    • Net
      drying is likely in portions of Honduras and Nicaragua
  • South
    Africa crop weather has been very good this year, although portions of the nation are drying out now and the trend may continue for a while
    • Early
      season maturation and harvesting should go well
    • Late
      season crops will need some beneficial moisture later this season
      • Rain
        prospects are fair over the next ten days, but the precipitation should be erratic and often lighter than usual
  • Southeastern
    Canada’s corn, wheat and soybean production region is favorably moist and poised for a good start to spring, although fieldwork is still a few weeks away
  • Turkey
    will receive frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days bolstering soil moisture for wheat development and rice and cotton planting
    • Portions
      of the nation are already wet after recent rain and mountain snow
    • Other
      spring planting will benefit from the coming moisture boost
  • Other
    areas in the Middle East have been experiencing a boost in precipitation
    • This
      week’s precipitation will be greatest in Turkey, Iraq and western Iran
  • Improving
    soil moisture throughout the Middle East is improving rice and cotton planting prospects (among other crops) and winter wheat conditions are improving
  • Philippines
    rainfall will be light to locally moderate most days through the coming week
    • Weather
      conditions in the next ten days should be mostly good for the nation, although the south may eventually turn quite wet
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall will occur abundantly during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and no area experiencing much net drying
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience a general boost in precipitation this week and next week which is normal at this time of year.
    • Recent
      temperatures have been heating up while it has been dry and that, too, is typical of this time of year ahead of the coming monsoon season
  • Eastern
    Africa precipitation is expected to scatter daily from Tanzania to Ethiopia over the next ten days
    • The
      moisture will be good for ongoing crop development
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -0.77 and it was expected to move erratically over the coming week

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
March 28:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
March 29:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Coffee,
    rice and rubber exports from Vietnam

Thursday,
March 30:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    hogs & pigs inventory, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    India

Friday,
March 31:

  • US
    prospective planting data for several crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, barley and rice, noon
  • USDA’s
    quarterly stockpiles data for corn, soybeans, wheat, barley and sorghum
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
  • Malaysia’s
    March palm oil export data
  • US
    agricultural prices paid and received, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI