PDF Attached
Attached
are our updated US 2023 acreage and US soybean complex S&D’ tables. For area, we made a small downward revision to all-wheat (-150), hay, cotton, and soybeans (-300 from previous). CFTC COT report as of March 14 showed another large reduction for corn and
soybean oil longs. The US agriculture markets fell today led by Chicago wheat, soybeans and soybean
oil. Talk of vegetable oils backing up in Europe and improving selected winter wheat state ratings prompted fund selling, for starters. Soybeans were sharply lower. Losses in corn were limited after USDA reported additional China sales. Private exporters reported
sales of 136,000 tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Weather
World
Weather Inc.
-
PDO
continues strongly negative and may be a significant influence on spring and summer weather in North America -
NOAA’s
ENSO forecast model continues to show an aggressive forecast for El Nino to be in place during June – World Weather, Inc. still believes the model is being a little too aggressive even though warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has been significant
recently along with cooling in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean -
Argentina
is still expecting to receive waves of rain in the central and north over the next ten days that will induce much wetter soil conditions -
Flooding
is not much a concern right now due to the very dry state of the soil, although if heavy rain occurs some temporary flooding will be possible -
Brazil’s
center south crop areas that were too wet for many weeks from Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana into Minas Gerais are drying down favorably this week and that should translate into better late season soybean harvesting and allow any remaining Safrinha crop planting
to conclude soon -
Brazil
monsoonal rainfall is still expected to abate in mid-April adding some pressure on late planted Safrinha crops to produce favorably
-
Unexpected
late season rainfall will be needed during reproduction and filling to get crop yields as high as possible
-
Rio
Grande do Sul, Brazil should get some timely rainfall over the next two weeks to support late season crops.
-
Some
of the rain may be heavy in time -
U.S.
southwestern Plains dryness will continue into the last days of March -
Some
longer range forecast models have been hinting at some potential for better rainfall in April in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas -
The
forecast is not a very high confident one yet, but it is important to note in previous years of multi-year La Nina that abated in this solar cycle did produce some welcome rain -
The
strongly negative PDO of this year, however, may work against some of that potential rainfall and the situation needs to be closely monitored -
U.S.
flood potentials in the Red River Basin of the North are still high and rising with another 2 to 8 inches of snowfall expected to accumulate there by Friday with much of that occurring this afternoon and tonight -
The
speed in which the snow melts and whether or not there is any rain that accompanies the snowmelt season will determine much about the flood potential and the extent of it -
Flooding
from the Red River of the North is also expected to impact southern Manitoba, Canada later this spring as the river flows northward into Lake Winnipeg.
-
Upper
portions of the Mississippi River Basin may also be threatened with significant runoff and possible flooding in April -
The
region needs to be closely monitored, although the Mississippi should be low enough to handle most of the flood water and the soil in the upper Midwest still has room to absorb some of the snowmelt -
California
flooding is a viable concern too for this spring as significant mountain snowpack runs off into water reservoirs that are likely to become full -
India’s
reports of crop damage were numerous Monday following the rain and thunderstorm activity during the weekend; however, the damage may not be as extensive as some articles have suggested -
India
will continue to receive periodic rainfall in the next ten days especially in northern and eastern parts of the nation possibly raising more concern over winter crop conditions -
North
Africa will continue dealing with dryness over the next ten days with temperatures ebbing a little warmer than usual -
Crop
moisture stress is already an issue for interior Tunisia and portions of Morocco and Algeria, although Tunisia will likely experience the greatest decline in potential production relative to that of last year.
-
China
rainfall over the next ten days will be greatest in the southern half of the Yangtze River Basin and southern coastal provinces benefiting rapeseed development and early season rice planting -
Additional
rain totals of 3.00 to 8.00 inches may occur near and south of the Yangtze River reaching into Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang -
Limited
precipitation in the lower Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will leave some wheat areas in need or greater precipitation especially in April -
Cooling
is expected in eastern China late this week into next week which may help to slow drying rates in winter wheat areas of the north and conserve soil moisture in the south -
CIS
precipitation decreased during the weekend and remained light Monday especially in the west which may have helped reduce flooding as snow continued to melt.
-
Very
few freezes occurred overnight last night keeping the snow melt ongoing -
CIS
temperatures will continue warmer than usual in the west over the next week to ten days -
Precipitation
will be restricted this workweek, but it will increase during the weekend and next week raising runoff once again -
Some
additional flooding will occur as temperatures trend warmer and precipitation increases once again -
Europe
will continue warmer and drier than usual for a few more days and then precipitation will increase in the north and west-central parts of the continent late this week into next week
-
Temperatures
will begin cooling next week as precipitation increases -
Eastern
Spain will remain one of the driest areas in the continent for a while possibly threatening dryland winter crops and some of the planting of spring crops -
West-central
Africa precipitation will be sporadic and light for another day or two, but will increase late this week and continue into next week -
Recent
precipitation has been lighter than usual and temperatures warmer biased raising some concern over crop development -
Rain
later this week into next week will be very important for coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane -
Australia
rainfall will resume in the southeast during mid- to late week this week and then to southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales next week
-
Temperatures
will continue warmer than usual this week and then trend a little cooler this weekend and next week – at least in eastern crop areas -
Mexico
is still dealing with a winter drought and there is need for precipitation to support corn, sorghum and cotton in unirrigated areas -
There
is also need for moisture in some citrus and sugarcane areas, although the situation for these two crops is not critical outside of the far northeast part of the nation -
Central
America rainfall will be greatest in Guatemala and from Costa Rica to Panama during the next ten days -
Net
drying is likely in Honduras and Nicaragua -
Drought
continues a concern in Canada’s southwestern Prairies -
Some
snow fell earlier this month in a part of the drought region, but snow water equivalents were not great enough to offer a tremendous improvement, although some benefit did occur as the snow melted -
Not
much precipitation of significance will occur in the dry areas over the next week, although some light precipitation will be possible infrequently -
Greater
precipitation may occur in the last days of March and early April -
Drought
in the U.S. western Plains is the most serious out of all dryness in North America,
but it could also be fixed faster than some other areas because “normal” rainfall is not all that great -
Dryness
is most serious from West Texas cotton and wheat areas north into western Kansas and eastern Colorado, although a part of the region from western Nebraska to Montana is also considered to be too dry -
Relief
from dryness in the southwestern Plains is unlikely in the next ten days and probably longer -
Some
rain and snow will fall in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado periodically over the next ten days, but serious relief from drought may be difficult to come by
-
“Partial”
relief from dryness is possible in “some” areas -
U.S.
southeastern states had been drying out in recent weeks, but the region has not been seriously impacted except in Florida where drought is a concern for long term crop development -
Relief
is expected in the interior southeastern parts of the United States in the coming ten days to two weeks with rain likely in many areas, but some areas will get more rain than others -
Florida
will get the least amount of rain and will continue notably drier biased -
Southern
U.S. Plains, Delta and southeastern States to be quick in heating back up this week with 70- and 80-degree highs expected by mid-week and will last into the weekend before cooling again next week -
South
Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend planting of corn, sorghum and some cotton is underway, but dryland production areas (especially in the south) need significant rain -
Some
precipitation is expected over the next ten days, but it has been reduced from that of last week and much more will be needed to bolster soil moisture for long term crop development especially in unirrigated areas -
Portions
of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin are quite wet and need drier weather to improve planting conditions in the next few weeks -
South
Africa crop weather has been very good this year, although the nation is drying out now -
Early
season maturation and harvesting should go well -
Late
season crops will need some beneficial moisture later this season -
Rain
prospects on fair over the next ten days, but the precipitation should be erratic and often lighter than usual -
Southeastern
Canada’s corn, wheat and soybean production region is favorably moist and poised for a good start to spring, although fieldwork is still a few weeks away -
Turkey
will receive frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days bolstering soil moisture for wheat development and rice and cotton planting -
Portions
of the nation are already wet after weekend rain and mountain snow -
Other
spring planting will benefit from the coming moisture boost -
Other
areas in the Middle East will also experience a boost in precipitation -
Syria,
northern Iraq and much of Iran will receive significant rainfall as will some areas in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan -
Philippines
rainfall will be light to locally moderate most days through the coming week
-
Weather
conditions in the next ten days should be mostly good for the nation, although the south may eventually turn quite wet -
Indonesia
and Malaysia rainfall will occur abundantly during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and no area experiencing much net drying -
Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia will receive very little rain of significance through Sunday, but a notable boost in rain may occur in the last days of this month -
Eastern
Africa precipitation is expected to scatter from Tanzania to Ethiopia over the next ten days -
The
moisture will be good for ongoing crop development -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -0.38 and it was expected to move erratically over the coming week
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Bloomberg
Ag calendar
Wednesday,
March 22:
- EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - EARNINGS:
Syngenta - HOLIDAY:
Indonesia
Thursday,
March 23:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - Rabobank
Farm2Fork Summit, Sydney - Russian
Grain Union holds conference in Kazan - Brazil’s
Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative) - USDA
red meat production, 3pm - US
cold storage data for pork, poultry and beef, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
Indonesia
Friday,
March 24:
- Marine
Insurance London conference - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop conditions reports - US
poultry slaughter - HOLIDAY:
Argentina
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
CFTC
Commitment of Traders
The
net long position for corn and soybean oil really took a hit over the past 4 weeks (might be related to crude oil).
Reuters
table
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
-77,633 -58,021 298,363 -13,468 -153,888 73,554
Soybeans
110,690 -18,657 127,514 -6,983 -195,006 24,573
Soyoil
-23,589 -18,395 98,897 -2,263 -75,866 22,245
CBOT
wheat -87,954 8,823 81,916 -5,368 4,224 -1,822
KCBT
wheat -21,245 -1,315 42,743 -720 -20,104 1,647
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
-54,134
-75,192 230,515 8,766 -165,518 65,848
Soybeans
127,661 -29,669 94,280 -2,505 -196,708 23,336
Soymeal
133,970 -21,094 82,920 2,907 -255,693 18,927
Soyoil
-1,189 -21,715 102,967 701 -101,002 22,460
CBOT
wheat -95,257 5,379 64,592 329 5,446 -4,166
KCBT
wheat -12,732 -2,313 36,144 -158 -22,286 1,286
MGEX
wheat -4,447 -1,418 1,320 -32 1,348 1,410
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat -112,436 1,648 102,056 139 -15,492 -1,470
Live
cattle 92,565 -20,040 46,276 -1,496 -149,701 16,851
Feeder
cattle 10,368 83 1,600 -58 -3,215 -2,053
Lean
hogs 2,136 4,215 46,958 1,587 -46,871 -5,079
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
55,980 2,644 -66,842 -2,066 1,667,603 103,001
Soybeans
17,964 7,771 -43,196 1,066 840,290 23,599
Soymeal
19,585 -251 19,218 -489 489,810 -6,966
Soyoil
-1,334 139 557 -1,587 501,748 22,739
CBOT
wheat 23,405 90 1,813 -1,633 459,299 26,549
KCBT
wheat 268 797 -1,393 387 191,175 5,305
MGEX
wheat 3,098 120 -1,319 -80 57,302 2,172
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 26,771 1,007 -899 -1,326 707,776 34,026
Live
cattle 23,559 2,879 -12,701 1,806 421,743 -15,508
Feeder
cattle 2,768 1,692 -11,520 335 75,782 4,965
Lean
hogs -2,082 -33 -141 -690 282,563 -6,500
FI
Corn
91.000
Soybeans
89.000
All-wheat
49.850
Allendale
Corn
90.414
Soybeans
87.768
All-wheat
48.706
S&P
Corn
90.900
Soybeans
88.200
All-wheat
49.247
104
Counterparties Take $2.195 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op. (prev $2.098 Tln, 97 Bids)
US
Existing Home Sales Feb: 4.58M (est 4.2M; prev 4.0M)
US
Existing Home Sales (M/M) Feb: 14.5% (est 5.0%; prev -0.7%)
US
Feb National Median Home Price For Existing Homes $363,000, -0.2% From Feb 2022 (prev $359,000)
Canadian
CPI NSA (M/M) Feb: 0.4% (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%)
Canadian
CPI (Y/Y) Feb: 5.2% (est 5.4%; prev 5.9%)
Canadian
CPI Core- Median (Y/Y) Feb: 4.9% (est 4.8%; prev 5.0%)
Canadian
CPI Core- Trim (Y/Y) Feb: 4.8% (est 4.9%; prev 5.1%)
·
Corn traded lower on fund selling but losses were limited from China buying additional US corn and higher WTI crude oil. News was light. Funds sold an estimated net 3,000 corn contracts.
·
The US is expected to see additional rain over the next week that should help set up favorable early crop development if plantings get in at a timely manner.
·
Trade estimates for US acreage should be out later this week. Early estimates for the US corn crop call for over 90 million acres. Note the survey was conducted from March 1 to March 14. The acreage fight is not over. There is
still some time to switch to soybeans. The new-crop ratio is 2.33, lowest in a month.
·
Anec: Brazil corn exports seen reaching up to 898,632 tons in March versus up to 845,063 tons forecast in previous week.
·
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 8,000 thousand barrels to 1022k (1012-1025 range) from the previous week and stocks down 400,000 barrels to 25.994 million.
·
US corn plantings:
TX
40% vs. 35% average
LA
87%
MS
7%
AR
1%
Export
developments.
-
USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Updated
03/21/23
May
corn $5.85-$6.75
July
corn $5.75-$7.00
·
Soybeans traded sharply lower from weakness in soybean oil and upward revision to the Brazil soybean crop by Agroconsult. There were rumors again China might be in for US soybeans, but there were no USDA announcements. Soybean
spreads saw a slight correction today. Crush margins fell led by the May position. Funds sold an estimated net 9,000 soybean contracts, 1,000 meal and 6,000 soybean oil.
·
Despite favorable rain falling across Argentina over the weekend with additional precipitation expected this week, we are hearing it’s too late to improve crop conditions. This morning it was noted recently harvested soybeans
are coming in green.
·
Producer selling is still slow in Argentina as they are likely waiting to see if a new soybean dollar will be rolled out.
·
Soybean oil was lower on product spreading and talk of slowing US renewable biofuel expansion. We heard Low Carbon Fuel Standard Credit prices dropped to their lowest level since 2015 after dropping about 12 percent from the previous
month.
·
We also caught wind that vegetable oil supplies are starting to flood the EU market.
·
A slowdown in US crush is not seen over the short term. We are slightly higher than USDA for product crush for the current marketing year. Although US soybean meal export headlines have settled down over the last week.
·
Agroconsult estimated the Brazil 2022-23 soybean crop at 155 million tons, up from 153 previous. They pegged Brazil soybean exports at 96 million tons and corn exports at 51.9 million.
·
Anec: Brazil soy exports seen reaching 15.388 million tons in March versus 14.893 million tons forecast in previous week.
·
Anec: Brazil soymeal exports seen reaching 1.787 million tons in March versus 2.091 million tons forecast in previous week.
·
Cargo surveyor SGS reported month to date March 20 Malaysian palm exports at 929,274 tons, 216,534 tons above the same period a month ago or up 30.4%, and 205,277 tons above the same period a year ago or up 28.4%.
·
The USDA Attaché sees new-crop Indonesia palm oil production at 46 million tons, 3 percent increase from 2022-23.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds%20and%20Products%20Annual_Jakarta_Indonesia_ID2023-0005
China
Attaché: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Imports
boosted to 97 million tons (92 year earlier)
Export
Developments
·
None reported
Updated
03/21/23
Soybeans
– May $14.00-$15.50
Soybean
meal – May $425-$500
Soybean
oil – May 52-58
Wheat
·
US wheat futures started the day higher but swiftly fell on fund selling. Positioning ahead of the USDA reports next week was likely. Funds are holding a large short position in wheat so don’t discount short covering later this
week. USDA reported a general improvement in US wheat conditions, but many states remain at historically low levels for the G/E categories. EU wheat fell again and settled near its 18 month low.
·
US winter wheat ratings on a national basis resume early April. For late November 2022, before the crop went into dormancy, were nationally rated 34 percent G/E, lowest since 2012, according to Reuters.
·
May Paris milling wheat officially closed down 4.75 euros, or 1.8%, at 253.50 euros a ton (about $272.79/ton).
·
Anec: Brazil wheat exports seen reaching 727,815 tons in March versus 728,594 tons forecast in previous week.
·
Ukraine grain exports stand at 35.8 million tons, down 20 percent from the same period year earlier.
o
21m tons of corn, up 2% y/y
o
12.3m tons of wheat, down 34% y/y
o
2.2m tons of barley, down 61% y/y (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
Good/Excellent W/w Change
Kansas 19% +2
Oklahoma 29% -1
Texas 23% +6
Colorado 36% -4
EU
wheat
·
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of milling wheat for Sep-Oct shipment.
·
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 22.
·
China plans to auction off 140,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on March 22.
Rice/Other
·
South Korea seeks 121,800 tons of rice, most of it from China, on March 21.
Updated
03/21/23
KC
– May $7.60-$8.75
MN
– May
$8.00-$9.50
#non-promo
Evecom-FI032123.pdf