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11th
hour Black Sea export deal may prompt a lower trade Sunday for grains, led by wheat. Lower close Friday for the CBOT soybean complex with soybean oil share recovering due to rumors Argentina soybean imports will yield higher than expected meal exports. Ukraine
announced a 120-day grain deal expansion on Saturday, after grain prices rose Friday from uncertainty. US is not out of the woods for small bank closures, so economic uncertainty is expected to spill over for the short term. Two weeks from today USDA will
release the 2023 initial US planting survey and March 1 grain stocks. Look for positioning ahead of this report to gradually increase.

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 191,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

CFTC:
March 17, 2023: The cyber-related incident at ION prevented the submission of timely and accurate data to the CFTC last month. As a result, the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) report has been delayed. Today, staff will not issue the Commitments of
Traders report as data for this week will need to be reviewed and validated.

 

 

 

Our
fund/managed money estimates as of March 17.

 

 

Weather

Map

Description automatically generated

 

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

MORNING
WEATHER UPDATE

WORLD
DROUGHT AREAS

  • Mexico
    is still dealing with a winter drought and there is need for precipitation to support corn, sorghum and cotton in unirrigated areas
    • There
      is also need for moisture in some citrus and sugarcane areas, although the situation for these two crops is not critical outside of the far northeast part of the nation
  • Drought
    remains in eastern Spain and in the lower Danube River Basin in southeastern Europe
    • Dryness
      is also a problem in Norway
  • Drought
    continues in portions of northern Africa with some areas hurting for moisture more than other areas
    • Interior
      parts of Tunisia are experiencing the biggest decline in crop conditions relative to those of last year
    • Southwestern
      Morocco has seen improved rainfall this winter, although it was too dry to plant most of the irrigated wheat and barley in the region this year so production will still be down
    • Crop
      conditions in Algeria seem to be similar to slightly poorer than last year at this time
    • Rain
      prospects are poor for at least another week
  • India’s
    winter rainfall was poor this year hurting some of the dryland winter crop production
    • Temperatures
      were warmer than usual in February which added to the crop moisture stress
    • March
      started off warmer than usual and quite dry, but the coming two weeks will be cooler than usual and there is a good chance for showers this weekend through early next week
      • Most
        of the rain comes too late to improve yield potentials, but some late developing winter crops will see an improvement in crop quality
  • Argentina
    remains the world’s most seriously drought impacted country
    • Recent
      rain has improved topsoil moisture in central and southern Buenos Aires and in portions of western and southern Cordoba, San Luis and a few La Pampa locations, although much more rain is needed
    • Central
      portions of Argentina have been most seriously impacted by dry and hot weather during the most recent 30-days
    • Rain
      is expected Monday into Wednesday across central Argentina offering some relief to persistent dryness, but the drought will not end because of the rain
      • The
        moisture comes too late in the season to benefit more than a few crops, but some improvement will be possible
        • Rain
          totals will vary from, 0.75 to 2.50 inches from Cordoba to Entre Rios and northern Uruguay
        • Southern
          Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil will also benefit from the early week rain event next week
    • Other
      areas in Argentina will get some rain in the coming ten days, but the moisture will be sporadic and light
      • Warm
        temperatures will keep evaporation rates high
  • Drought-like
    conditions have been evolving in northeastern Brazil in the past few weeks, although the impact on agriculture has been low so far
    • This
      area will be impacted by more dryness late this year and into early 2024 if El Nino evolves as expected
  • Dryness
    in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil has been an extension of drought from Argentina and it has had some negative impact on rice and corn production this year
    • Soybeans
      have been impacted to a smaller degree of seriousness
    • Some
      timely rainfall is possible in the state next week, but more rain will be needed to end long term dryness
  • Eastern
    Australia has been struggling with some dryness in recent weeks, but rain a week ago in central through southeastern Queensland offered some welcome relieve for late season summer crops
    • New
      South Wales was not as seriously relieved from dryness as Queensland, although northeastern parts of the state did get some significant moisture
    • Eastern
      Australia summer crop areas have resumed a drier bias and will continue to experience limited rain for the next ten days
    • Summer
      crop advancement is getting to the point that dryness is not likely to have a big impact on unirrigated crops in the future, but moisture is needed to improve field conditions for the planting of winter crops beginning in late April
  • Drought
    continues a concern in Canada’s southwestern Prairies
    • Some
      snow fell earlier this month in a part of the drought region, but snow water equivalents were not great enough to offer a tremendous improvement, although some benefit did occur as the snow melted
    • Not
      much precipitation of significance will occur in the dry areas over the next couple of weeks
  • Drought
    in the U.S. western Plains is the most serious out of all dryness in North America
    ,
    but it could also be fixed faster than some other areas because “normal” rainfall is not all that great
    • Dryness
      is most serious from West Texas cotton and wheat areas north into western Kansas and eastern Colorado, although a part of the region from western Nebraska to Montana is also considered to be too dry
      • Relief
        from dryness is unlikely in the next ten days and probably longer
  • U.S.
    southeastern states had been drying out in recent weeks, but the region has not been seriously impacted except in Florida where drought is a concern for long term crop development
    • Relief
      is expected in the interior southeastern parts of the United States in the coming ten days to two weeks with rain likely in many areas
      • Florida
        will get “some” rain, but probably not enough to break drought status
  • South
    Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend planting of corn, sorghum and some cotton is underway, but dryland production areas (especially in the south) need significant rain
    • Some
      precipitation is expected over the next ten days, but more will be needed to bolster soil moisture for long term crop development especially in unirrigated areas
  • West
    Texas precipitation will continue restricted over the next two weeks, although totally dry weather may not occur
    • Some
      parts of the dryland production region need a tremendous amount of rain to restore soil moisture and water supply

 

WETTER
AREAS OF THE WORLD

  • Portions
    of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin are quite wet and need drier weather to improve planting conditions in the next few weeks
  • The
    U.S. Red River Basin of the North and portions of the upper Mississippi River Basin have tremendous amounts of snow on the ground and could experience some flooding if the snow melts too fast while significant rain falls in the region
    • No
      such forecast has been made for the coming two weeks, but cool temperatures will leave much of the snow in place raising the potential that when it does warm up the snow may melt fast resulting a sudden turn toward flooding
  • California
    and western parts of both Washington and Oregon are very wet and there is potential for flooding this spring as the deep snowpack in the mountains melts
  • A
    large part of northern Europe has become saturated with moisture in the past week, but dryness down deep in the soil should absorb much of the moisture in time limiting the potential for flooding
    • Many
      rivers and streams are still flowing at below normal levels following last summer’s drought and a poor winter season of precipitation
      • The
        low water levels will prevent major flooding from occurring event if Europe goes into a more active weather pattern this spring which is possible
  • Western
    Russia continues saturated with moisture and significant snowmelt is under way now and will continue into early April
    • Some
      flooding is suspected, although not confirmed
    • Any
      abundance of rain that evolves in the next few weeks could raise the severity of flooding across the region
      • Portions
        of Belarus and the Baltic States are quite wet as well
  • Many
    areas in Indonesia and Malaysia have seen waves of significant rain in recent months leaving the ground saturated and inducing periodic flooding
    • This
      pattern may continue for a while, but as La Nina’s lingering affects diminish so will the rainfall

 

REST
OF WORLD

  • South
    Africa crop weather has been very good this year, although the nation is drying out now
    • Early
      season maturation and harvesting should go well
    • Late
      season crops will need some beneficial moisture later this season
  • Most
    of Australia’s irrigated crops have performed well this summer and will likely finish out well
  • China’s
    weather has been nearly ideal in recent weeks and months
    • Winter
      crops should develop well, although some timely rain will be needed in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain soon
    • Rain
      in the Yangtze River Basin and areas to the south in the next ten days will improve soil moisture for aggressive rapeseed development and good rice planting and early development potential
  • Much
    of the Russia’s Southern Region and Ukraine weather has been good since planting occurred last autumn and early spring crop development potential looks good
  • Europe
    weather outside of the drier and wetter areas noted above will remain favorable for a while
  • Southeastern
    Canada’s corn, wheat and soybean production region is favorably moist and poised for a good start to spring, although fieldwork is still a few weeks away
  • West-central
    Africa rainfall is expected to increase through Friday of next week bolstering soil moisture and improving conditions for flowering coffee and cocoa
  • Turkey
    will receive frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days bolstering soil moisture for wheat development and rice and cotton planting
    • Other
      spring planting will benefit from the coming moisture boost
  • Other
    areas in the Middle East will also experience a boost in precipitation
    • Syria,
      northern Iraq and much of Iran will receive significant rainfall as will some areas in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan
  • Philippines
    rainfall will be light to locally moderate most days through the coming week
    • Weather
      conditions in the next ten days should be mostly good for the nation
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall will occur abundantly during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and no area experiencing much net drying
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will receive very little rain of significance in this coming week, but a notable boost in rain may occur in the last week of this month
  • Eastern
    Africa precipitation is expected to scatter from Tanzania to Ethiopia over the next ten days
    • The
      moisture will be good for ongoing crop development
  • Eastern
    Mexico and portions of Central America will receive rain during the next ten days
    • The
      precipitation will be most organized in Central America with Costa Rica and Panama wettest, but some areas in western Honduras, northwestern Nicaragua and Guatemala this weekend into next week
      • Moisture
        totals may be enough to stimulate premature coffee flowering and that potential event should be closely monitored
        • Most
          likely the advertised rain is overdone and will be reduced in future forecast model runs.
    • Mexico
      rainfall will continue erratic and light as it has been
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was +1.07 and it was expected to move lower over the coming week

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
March 20: