PDF Attached
Today
was last trade for CBOT March futures. (March settles below w/ weekly % change)
Soybean
oil was again the bread winner for the week. Futures traded choppy Friday on lack of direction and positioning. Most US wheat futures were under pressure from the current storm rolling across the heart of the US providing widespread soil moisture relief.
World
Weather Inc.
WORLD
WEATHER TO WATCH DURING THE WEEKEND
- Argentina
crop stress has continued to be punishing in some areas this week and that trend will prevail through the weekend and into Monday
o
Thunderstorms Monday night into Wednesday will bring relief to many areas with 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain and locally more
- The
precipitation will be welcome and should offer some relief to crop moisture stress, but follow up rain will be very important
o
Cooling accompanying next week’s rain will help temporarily slow evaporation and crop stress
o
Follow up rain will be very important and there is some expected in the March 20-26 period – that event will also be welcome, although many crops will move beyond their most moisture sensitive stage of development as the end of
the month rolls around.
- Brazil
rainfall will resume this weekend and occur frequently again next week in Mato Grosso, Goias, Tocantins and some immediate neighboring areas
o
This week’s break from the wettest conditions has allowed the topsoil to firm up in some areas, but the break has not likely allowed aggressive field progress because muddy conditions
o
Field progress will continue around the rain, but progress will be slow
- Southern
Brazil weather will be more supportive of crop development and farming activity including soybean harvesting and Safrinha corn planting
o
Rio Grande do Sul will have need for greater rain later this month, but crops in the state will remain in good shape through the next seven days
- Some
changes in the distribution of rain in the U.S. Plains has been subtly suggested today, but between this weekend’s precipitation event and the follow up system expected during mid-week a sufficient amount of relief will continue to the driest areas in Kansas,
Nebraska and northeastern Colorado.
o
Another storm system possible around March 22-23 could bring additional moisture to the region
o
Three storm systems in ten days across hard red winter wheat production areas could seriously improve root and tillering so that production can be raised later in the year barring no other weather adversities
- Livestock
stress and possible losses may occur this weekend into early next week from southwestern South Dakota into eastern Wyoming and southward through the Front Range area of the Colorado mountains where 12 to 30 inches of snow will accumulate
o
Snowfall in the Mountains could range from 2 to 4 feet and locally much more
o
Travel issues are expected from Denver Colorado through Cheyenne Wyoming and areas north east into the Black Hills region
- Far
northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies will be drier than usual over the next ten days due to frequent storms in the U.S. limiting northbound moisture from reaching the higher latitudes
o
World Weather, Inc. still believes better precipitation will reach these areas in April and May to east long term dryness.
o
A couple of weak weather systems will move through the Prairies late next week into the following weekend, but moisture totals will be light
- U.S.
West Texas weather will be mixed through next week
o
The High Plains region will get less than 0.50 inch of moisture
o
The Low Plains will receive 0.25 to 0.75 inch with a few totals to 1.50 inches
o
The Rolling Plains will receive 0.50 to 1.50 inches with a few locally greater amounts
- Severe
thunderstorms are likely in the southern Plains this weekend and some will reach the Delta late Sunday into Monday - U.S.
southeastern states will experience good planting weather through Sunday and Into Monday
o
Brief periods of precipitation will slow farming activity next week, but the mix of rain and sunshine should be good for early planted crops
- U.S.
Delta planting will advance in the south through the weekend and into next week, although rain will develop periodically to slow or stall fieldwork for short periods of time - Nebraska,
northeastern Kansas, Missouri and Kentucky will likely get too much rain in the next week resulting in some flooding
o
The greatest rain will occur through the weekend with follow up moisture during mid-week next week
- South
Texas will continue too dry along with some of the Coastal Bend region, despite a few brief showers
o
Irrigated corn, sorghum and some cotton are being planted
o
Dryland crops in the region need more moisture, but some planting is under way
- California
and the interior western U.S. will see some precipitation during the next two weeks, but most of the significant precipitation will fall in the mountains - Freezes
returning to the central and southern Plains late this weekend and next week will not cause any permanent damage to wheat that is greening
- Southeast
Canada will experience below average precipitation and near average temperatures during the coming week to ten days - North
Africa weather has trended drier once again
o
This week’s precipitation was welcome, but more will be needed to ensure the best yields later this spring
o
Northwestern Algeria, a few areas in northern Tunisia and southwestern Morocco are driest
- Ivory
Coast, Ghana, Benin and southern Nigeria will receive waves of rain in the next ten days
o
New rain totals will vary from 0.50 to 3.00 inches and locally more will be supportive of coffee and cocoa flowering and help increase soil moisture for future rice, sugarcane and cotton production
- East-central
Africa rainfall will be erratic and light for a while
o
Crop conditions are best in Tanzania
o
Rain is needed most in Ethiopia, although this is the end of their dry season
- South
Africa will experience an erratic rainfall pattern through the next week with temperatures mostly near to above average
o
The drying trend will encourage early season crop maturation, but subsoil moisture and irrigation will support late season crops
o
Summer crop conditions will remain favorably rated, although there will be a growing need for showers by mid-March
- Some
increase in precipitation is expected March 20-26 and that should prove timely for late season crops that dry out in this coming week - India
began receiving isolated showers in central parts of the nation Thursday and they will continue into Saturday morning
o
The moisture will be good for filling crops, but it will not likely to change soil conditions for very long
o
Some follow up precipitation may occur erratically in the March 20-26 period, but it will be lost to evaporation very quickly
- China
weather over the next ten days will continue dry in Yunnan while periodic rain and thunderstorms occur near and south of the Yangtze River
o
Rainfall will be greatest in southeastern Sichuan, Guizhou, Hunan Jiangxi and Zhejiang where 1.00 to 4.00 inches and locally more will result
o
Other showers and thunderstorms will occur in east-central China periodically during the next ten days, but periods of sunshine will also occur and rain totals will be mostly under 1.00 inch
o
Northeastern China and the Yellow River Basin will see alternating periods of light precipitation and sunshine through the next two weeks maintaining a very good outlook for winter crop development when seasonal warming begins
- Spring
planting prospects remain exceptionally good. but seasonal warming is needed in many areas
o
Temperatures will be above normal in most of the nation during the coming week to ten days
- Winter
crops will continue to come out of dormancy in the central and south. Spring planting will advance around periods of rain in the south
- Australia
weather in the coming week is expected to include frequent showers and thunderstorms in northeastern New South Wales and southern Queensland
o
The precipitation will be good for late season crops and for improving topsoil moisture for autumn planting
o
Early maturing cotton might not welcome the precipitation and could become a little too wet
- Mexico
drought conditions are still prevailing, although the impact on winter crops is low due to irrigation
o
Water supply is low in some areas and a notable improvement in rainfall is needed, but not very likely
o
Dryland winter crops are stressed and will yield poorly
o
Freeze damage is common in northern parts of the nation due to a couple of cold surges this winter
o
Rain in the coming week will be mostly confined to the east coast and temperatures will be seasonable with a slight warmer bias in the driest areas
- Central
America precipitation will continue greatest along the Caribbean Coast and in Guatemala while the Pacific Coast receives the lightest and most erratic rainfall, but some precipitation will fall especially in Costa Rica and Panama. - Southeast
Asia rainfall will occur relatively normally over the next two weeks
o
Mainland areas will experience net drying over the coming week with rain possible in the March 19-25 period
- The
resulting rainfall will be sporadic and light with net drying probably continuing in many areas for a while longer
o
Philippines rainfall will increase in the coming week due to a tropical weather disturbance that will help induce some moderate to heavy rain at times
o
Indonesia and Malaysia weather during the next two weeks will bring rain to most crop areas maintaining a very good outlook for crop development
- A
boost in precipitation is expected and will be welcome - Peninsular
Malaysia is still driest and has the greatest need for rain - Rain
in peninsular Malaysia should fall during the middle to latter part of next week and into late month - New
Zealand weather will be drier and a little cooler than usual in this coming week
o
The nation’s soil moisture has drifted below average especially in the north
o
Additional drying is expected March 20-26
- Southern
Oscillation Index has been falling and was at +3.84 this morning. The index is expected to continue to fall for a little longer, but will soon start to level off somewhat. The index has fall since Feb. 23 when it was +15.24 - Europe
weather will be mixed over the next two weeks with periods of rain, mountain snow and sunshine occurring while temperatures are seasonable
o
The environment will be good in maintaining moisture abundance in much of the continent and seasonal warming will bring more winter crops out of dormancy in parts of the west and south
o
Net drying is expected in Spain and Portugal
- Western
CIS temperatures will be slightly cooler than usual in this coming week while waves of snow and rain prevail
o
The environment will be good for spring crop development, but for now there will not be much greening or crop development for a while longer due to coolness
o
Too much moisture is also present in the soil in western Russia and flooding may be an issue for a while this spring as a deep layer of snow melts while new precipitation falls
- Bitter
cold in Russia this week occurred in snow covered areas resulting in no crop damage.
Source:
World Weather inc.
Source:
World Weather inc.
Source:
World Weather inc.
Bloomberg
Ag Calendar
Monday,
March 15:
- USDA
Export Inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - Malaysia
to announce crude palm oil export tax rate for April (tentative) - Monthly
MARS bulletin on EU crop conditions - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - India
Feb. vegetable oil imports (tentative) - Malaysia’s
March 1-15 palm oil export data
Tuesday,
March 16:
- New
Zealand global dairy trade auction
Wednesday,
March 17:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production - Brazil’s
Unica may release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
Thursday,
March 18:
- USDA
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - China
customs to publish trade data, including import numbers for corn, wheat, sugar and pork - USDA
total milk production
Friday,
March 19:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions - U.S.
cattle on feed
Saturday,
March 20:
- China
3rd batch of Jan.-Feb. trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities. No timing
The
CME Group
intends to increase both spot-month and all-months-combined speculative position limits effective March 15.
https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/files/cme-group-Rule-562-pending.pdf
Traders
missed the net long positions in soybeans and soybean oil (less than expected). Lower trade Sunday night could be taken under consideration.
The
net longs for soybean oil managed money futures and options are down for the third consecutive week, while SBO futures traded higher.
What
is next for the soybean/corn traditional funds futures & options relationship?
Depends
in part on Index funds (they are near record long CBOT aggregated)
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
339,802 -8,812 408,098 1,159 -738,710 6,286
Soybeans
129,770 3,238 165,766 -1,870 -291,244 -3,127
Soyoil
74,589 -4,147 125,347 -793 -220,282 6,096
CBOT
wheat -4,234 -4,648 153,602 -2,685 -135,465 7,188
KCBT
wheat 28,252 -4,442 69,062 -130 -92,607 4,167
=================================================================================
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
356,514 7,966 260,678 -2,931 -723,193 6,373
Soybeans
159,601 4,040 90,567 -533 -277,756 -4,388
Soymeal
64,244 -1,179 70,306 633 -185,297 -3,218
Soyoil
99,574 -8,508 95,122 2,584 -235,110 3,952
CBOT
wheat 27,576 -4,227 93,552 161 -116,891 4,683
KCBT
wheat 47,664 -4,060 41,748 -424 -84,710 4,265
MGEX
wheat 16,590 2,489 3,917 -275 -27,676 -2,166
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 91,830 -5,798 139,217 -538 -229,277 6,782
Live
cattle 81,660 1,090 83,265 -1,012 -169,816 660
Feeder
cattle 379 -784 7,425 -268 -2,731 -743
Lean
hogs 74,287 155 55,368 337 -134,458 -5,942
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
115,193 -12,777 -9,190 1,368 2,374,719 16,167
Soybeans
31,882 -879 -4,293 1,759 1,193,643 37,019
Soymeal
17,922 408 32,824 3,357 471,502 10,492
Soyoil
20,067 3,127 20,347 -1,156 590,495 41,721
CBOT
wheat 9,663 -762 -13,902 145 503,536 -7,013
KCBT
wheat 5 -186 -4,707 404 233,235 -5,263
MGEX
wheat 1,858 -235 5,312 186 87,446 2,502
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 11,526 -1,183 -13,297 735 824,217 -9,774
Live
cattle 19,796 -1,764 -14,905 1,026 381,857 -4,472
Feeder
cattle 3,992 1,283 -9,065 511 50,687 2,437
Lean
hogs 13,866 3,890 -9,065 1,561 319,949 5,761
Source:
Reuters, CFTC and FI
US
PPI Final Demand (M/M) Feb: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 1.3%)
US
PPI Ex-Food, Energy (M/M) Feb: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 1.2%)
US
PPI Ex-Food, Energy, Trade (M/M) Feb: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 1.2%)
US
PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Feb: 2.8% (est 2.7%; prev 1.7%)
US
PPI Ex-Food, Energy (Y/Y) Feb: 2.5% (est 2.6%; prev 2.0%)
US
PPI Ex-Food, Energy, Trade (Y/Y) Feb: 2.2% (est 2.5%; prev 2.0%)
Canadian
Net Change In Employment Feb: 259.2K (est 75.0K; prev -212.8K)
Canadian
Unemployment Rate Feb: 8.2% (est 9.2%; prev 9.4%)
Brazil
Retail Sales (Y/Y) Jan: -0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 1.2%)
Brazil
Retail Sales (M/M) Jan: -0.2% (est 0.0%; prev -6.1%)
Brazil
Retail Sales Broad (Y/Y) Jan: -2.9% (est -0.5%; prev 2.6%
Corn
- Corn
futures ended
Friday mixed from contract positioning and a higher USD (+21 as of 3 pm CT).
- Funds
sold an estimated net 3,000 corn contracts. - News
for the corn market was extremely light. - China
corn futures traded lower for the last few days on ASF concerns. Feed demand is a head scratcher for China. They recently have been picking up US white wheat and using it for feed. Soybean meal stocks are highest since December and China has been a reserved
buyer of US corn over the past month. However, they have huge commitments on the books, and we expect shipments to increase.
- We
look for US export inspections for corn to increase over the next several weeks as imports shift away from soybeans.
- Note
at least five of the corn cargoes SK bought this week were out of the PNW.
Export
developments.
- None
reported
Updated
3/1/21
May
corn is seen in a $5.20 and $5.75 range.
July
is seen in a $5.00 and $6.00 range.
December
corn is seen in a $3.85-$5.50 range.
- The
soybean complex was very choppy today in part to a higher USD, rally in soybean oil after briefly turning lower, and sharply lower soybean meal futures. We are getting a lot of questions on SBO these days. When will it break? The hundred thousand dollar
question. But with renewable diesel production coming online, long term we remain bullish. We do think a short term correction is due for soybean oil, but long traders may want to see a decline in South American cash prices and pause in the upward momentum
in Malaysian palm futures before taking profits. We also caution a product spread reversal when US soybean rationing hits the crush industry this summer, limiting available supplies of soybean meal for domestic feed. Global vegetable oil prices were up this
week and exports are lucrative. Note vegetable oil accounted for 40% of Ukraine’s farm exports so far in 2020-21 in USD terms (4.4 USD billion). And some countries may need to play catchup for imports as their economic situation improves. India vegetable
oil imports slowed last month. SEA reported India February palm oil imports at 394,495 tons, down 27% year earlier and lowest level in nine months. Soybean imports were 285,973 tons from 322,448 tons, and sunflower oil dropped to 116,110 tons from 226,743
tons. - Funds
were net even in soybeans, sold 4,000 soybean meal and bought 6,000 soybean oil.
- Lack
of export developments since Thursday afternoon and light news kept CBOT soybeans choppy, eventually ending mixed.
There
again were no major changes to the SA weather forecast although Argentina was slightly wetter for early next week. Argentina will see 1-1.5 inches of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Northern and central Brazil will remain active for at least the next week.
- After
the Friday close, the
Association of Mato Grosso Soy and Corn Producers (Aprosoja) estimated the Brazil soybean crop at 128.57 million tons vs. 129-130 million tons previously. Note this group represents producers. For Brazil we are using 133 million tons, around other trade
expectations. - ICE
canola basis May position fell 40 cents to 801.10/ton. - Coceral
lowered their EU rapeseed crop to 17.7 million tons from 17.8 million tons in December, above 17.1 million harvested in 2020. - Offshore
values this morning were leading CBOT SBO 49 points lower (69 lower for the week) and meal $0.90 short ton higher ($4.10 lower for the week).
- China
cash crush margins on our analysis were 178 cents (175 previous), up from 113 cents late last week and compares to 128 cents year earlier.
- Malaysian
palm oil for the week was up 10 percent this week to nearly 5-1/2 year high.
- Monday
we will see NOPA release February US crush figures and the trade can’t seem to get a handle on what was crushed for the month. Bloomberg and Reuters reported a very large range for the US February soybean crush, and it appears some
people may have forgot the US saw a large storm last month temporarily knocking some crush plants offline, and that there are only 28 days for the month of Feb.
When eyeing the estimates below, keep in mind the median estimate for Reuters was 167.9 million bushels and Bloomberg medium at 171.
Bloomberg
estimates below
Export
Developments
- Results
awaited: South Korea’s NOFI group seeks 12,000 tons of soybean meal for March 11-March 29 shipment (US), or up through April 15 if sourced from China.
- The
USDA CCC seeks 2,030 tons of packaged oil on March 16 for shipment Apr 16 – May 15.
Monthly
oil share – rolling second month
Source:
Reuters and FI
12ZSAT
Updated
3/11/21
May
soybeans are seen in a $13.75 and $14.75 range.
May
soymeal is seen in a $400 and $450 range.
May
soybean oil is seen in a 52.00 and 56.00 cent range. –
do not discount volatility to increase.
- US
wheat futures ended mostly lower after trading tow-sided. A large US wintery precipitation event is expected to bring soil moisture relief to many parts of the central and southern Great Plains. The Kansas (ratings declined one point last week to 36% G/E)
wheat areas badly need precipitation. US global export developments slowed by late workweek.
- Funds
sold an estimated net 4,000 wheat contracts. - French
soft wheat conditions were 88% as of March 8, unchanged from the week prior and above 63% a year ago. Durum was rated 88% as well, and winter barley at 85%, according to FranceAgriMer. Egypt said they have enough strategic reserves for 5 months.
- Coceral
lowered their EU soft wheat production to 141.5 million tons from 143.0 million but above last year’s 128.2 million. - EU
May milling wheat was down 1.25 at 223.25 euros. - Egypt
said they have enough strategic reserves for 5 months. - APK-Inform:
(Barley now more than expensive than milling wheat - Milling
wheat $218-$227 a ton Black Sea June-July delivery - Barley
$220-$230 a ton CPT (carriage paid to) Black Sea June-July delivery - 80%
of Russia’s winter crop is in good condition-Russian Ag Ministry.
Export
Developments.
- Japan
bought 94,925 tons of milling wheat this week. - Results
awaited: Algeria seeks around 50,000 tons of feed barley on March 11 for shipment by April 25.
- Jordan
seeks 120,000 tons of animal feed barley, on March 16 for shipment between October 1 and November 15.
- Pakistan
seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on March 16 for April-August shipment.
Rice/Other
·
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 208,217 tons of rice, on March 25 for arrival in South Korea in 2021 between May 1 and Oct. 31. 64,444 tons of non-glutinous brown rice is sought
from the United States. Rest from Thailand, China, Australia and Vietnam.
·
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on March 18.
·
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on March 29, from China or Egypt.
Updated
3/9/21
May
Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.25‐$6.90 range
May
KC wheat is seen in a $5.75‐$6.75 range
May
MN wheat is seen in a $6.20‐$6.65 range
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM:
treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Evecom-FI031221.pdf