PDF Attached

 

Chicago
temperatures reached above the 32 degree freeze level for the first time since February 4.  The concentration for past cold US temperatures lies in the southern half of the country, where ice and snowstorms drove up agriculture basis and wreaked havoc on the
energy, animal unit and transportation industries, among others.  It will take weeks to determine monetary loss, and the dent in US GPD. The first real indicator, for ags, of the extend from cold weather will be reflected in this week’s EIA ethanol production
figure.  We included an early preliminary figure below (not PDF).  Most CBOT major agriculture markets rallied today on widespread commodity buying and spillover sentiment from USDA’s outlook for tight US 2021-22 ending stocks. China is expected to step up
on food security, a hint they may buy additional agriculture products. 

 

 

 

Weather

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

  • Buenos
    Aires, Argentina rainfall overnight was greater than expected with some central areas getting 1.00 to 2.83 inches. Most other areas in the province reported 0.08 to 0.60 inch with a few totals in the east-central crop areas getting up to 1.14 inches
    • The
      added moisture will shrink the area of concern over dryness temporarily
    • The
      driest areas in Argentina are in La Pampa and western and southern Buenos Aires
  • Heavy
    snow fell in eastern Nebraska through western and central Iowa to west-central and southern Wisconsin Sunday with 3 to 7 inches common and local totals to 9.5 inches
  • High
    wind speeds are expected in the Northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies today and again late this week causing travel issues and possible property damage
  • Argentina
    rainfall in early March has been increased in the latest GFS model run
    • World
      Weather, Inc. has been flagging this as a viable possibility because our Trend Model suggests the change as well
      • The
        GFS is probably too wet in some areas, but the trend may be correct

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD

  • Argentina
    will be very warm to hot and experience net drying conditions in many areas during the coming week after a few early week thunderstorms
    • Rain
      and thunderstorms will occur tonight into Tuesday with total coverage of 40% and most rain amounts under 0.50 inch; however, a narrow band of greater rain may occur Tuesday into Wednesday morning from central Cordoba into northern Entre Rios where 0.50 to
      1.50 inches will result with a possible locally greater amount
    • Temperatures
      will be in the 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit often later this week into early next week after the early week precipitation clears the region
    • Accelerated
      drying is likely, although short term benefits will come from the stronger thunderstorms early this week
      • Crop
        stress will steadily rise this week in pockets
    • There
      is some potential for scattered showers in southern and western Argentina late this week and next week, but the resulting rainfall should not counter evaporation very well, but a few locations might get temporary relief  
      • The
        forecast will need to be closely monitored for the possibility for surprise thunderstorms especially during the first week of March
  • Argentina
    rain during the weekend was concentrated on southeastern Santiago del Estero, northwestern Santa Fe and some immediate neighboring areas Friday into Sunday afternoon
    • Most
      of the rain was greatest in northwestern Santa Fe and southeastern Santiago del Estero where 0.68 to 0.92 inch resulted
      • Surrounding
        areas received less than 0.20 inch and the remainder of the nation was dry
    • Temperatures
      were mild to cool Friday into Sunday morning with highest afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s Fahrenheit except in the north where the 90s were noted
      • Lowest
        morning temperatures slipped into the upper 30s and 40s in the southern one-third of the nation
        • No
          frost was noted, but the cool conditions conserved topsoil moisture through slower evaporation
  • Argentina’s
    bottom line is still one of concern about net drying.  Some showers will be around, but it will be hard for many areas to get enough rain to seriously bolster soil moisture for improved crop and field conditions. Temperatures are going to be very warm to hot
    and that will accelerate drying rates resulting in a rising amount of plant stress during the forecast period of the week and possibly a little longer. Totally dry weather is not expected, but the few showers that occur will offer only temporary relief to
    the drying trend. Greater amounts of rain will be needed to reverse the drying trend and protect production potentials.  There will be a few areas of exception where significant rain may fall. The first week in March might also trend a little wetter.
  • Brazil’s
    general weather theme for the next ten days has not changed much since Friday
    • Restricted
      rainfall is expected from Mato Grosso and southwestern Sao Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul and Paraguay
      • Some
        rain will occur, but it will be infrequent enough to lead the region into a steady rate of drying
        • Improved
          soybean maturation and harvest conditions will result along with faster Safrinha corn planting
        • Rain
          will be needed later in March and April to support second season crops
    • Rain
      will fall most frequently and significantly from northeastern Sao Paulo through Minas Gerais to central and northern Goias, Tocantins and northern and eastern parts of Mato Grosso
      • The
        wet weather will slow soybean maturation and harvest progress and maintain some concern over crop conditions
    • Sugarcane,
      coffee, minor rice, and minor corn and soybean production areas from northeastern Sao Paulo through Minas Gerais to Goias and Tocantins will get enough rain in the next ten days to result in some excessively wet field conditions and flooding is possible
    • A
      few areas in Sao Paulo citrus and sugarcane areas need greater rain
    • Western
      Bahia, Piaui and Maranhao will be plenty wet throughout the forecast period
    • Temperatures
      in Brazil will be seasonable throughout the outlook period
  • Brazil
    weather during the weekend occurred as expected
    • Rain
      fell mostly from Mato Grosso and Tocantins through Goias and western Bahia to central and northern Minas Gerais
      • Rainfall
        varied from 1.00 to 2.75 inches in northern and central Minas Gerais and varied from 1.00 to 2.25  inches in parts of central Goias while varying from 0.30 to 0.70 inch in most other areas with local totals to 1.50 inches
    • Net
      drying occurred in the remainder of the nation, including most of the south
    • Temperatures
      were seasonable with highs in the 80s and lower 90s most often followed by lows in the 60s and lower to a few middle 70s Fahrenheit
  • Brazil’s
    bottom line is mostly good for southern Brazil with infrequent rainfall occurring in the next ten days to support the maturation and harvest of soybeans as well as the planting of Safrinha crops. Enough soil moisture and/or rainfall will occur to support ongoing
    full season and second season crop development.  In the meantime, northern Brazil will continue fighting a wetter bias that will result in slow soybean harvest and Safrinha planting rates and could raise a little crop quality issue in a few areas. Most of
    the excessive rain will occur from central Minas Gerais to Tocantins. Drier weather must evolve for a little while in the north to promote better field working conditions and to get Safrinha corn planted as quickly as possible to protect production potentials.
    Some coffee areas of Zona de Mata and Cerrado Mineiro will be among the wettest areas.
  • Tropical
    Depression Dujuan was moving through the central Philippines Sunday, but was diminishing in the Visayan Islands today
    • The
      storm center was 373 miles southeast of Manila at 10.7 north, 125.2 east at 0
    • 0300
      GMT today moving west northwesterly at 6 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 30mph
    • Dujuan’s
      center will move from across the heart of the Visayan Islands today while further diminishing
      • Rain
        totals of 3.00 to 8.00 inches and local totals over 10.00 inches will result by 1200 GMT Wednesday, despite the storm’s weakening trend
        • Already
          more than 5.00 inches was reported in northeastern Mindanao
      • Some
        flooding is expected, but crop damage will be kept to a few low lying areas
        • Rice,
          sugarcane, corn and a few herbs and spices will be most impacted
  • India’s
    rain ended in central India late last week and was expected to end in the south early this week
    • Resulting
      rainfall was a little too light and sporadic for a lasting impact on winter crops as they reproduced, but short term improvements in crop and soil conditions occurred
      • Yield
        potentials remain favorable from southern and eastern Madhya Pradesh southward into northern Tamil Nadu where the precipitation was greatest over the past week
      • Greater
        rain is still desired
  • India
    will be dry warm to hot after showers end in the far south early this week
    • Some
      crop stress is expected in the north where temperatures will eventually be hottest
  • China
    temperatures soared into the 70s and slightly over 80 degrees Fahrenheit briefly during the weekend in east-central and southeastern parts of the nation
    • The
      warm weather stimulated more greening in southern wheat and rapeseed areas and quickened the drying rate
      • Crop
        conditions were still favorably rated
  • East-central
    China will receive rain and some snow this week while a little snow falls in the northeastern provinces as well
    • Waves
      of snow will fall in the northeastern provinces through the next two weeks
      • Resulting
        precipitation totals will be greater than usual
      • Snowfall
        will be widespread with parts of Heilongjiang getting 3 to more than 10 inches of snow over the entire forecast period
        • Travel
          delays and livestock stress are expected
      • Most
        of the snow in Liaoning and Jilin will occur in the coming weekend
    • Snow
      and rain will impact the Yellow River Basin and southern parts of the North China Plain during the middle part of this week (Tuesday and Wednesday) with 3 to 8 inches common and local totals as great as 12 inches
      • Shandong,
        southern Hebei, Shanxi and northern Shaanxi will be most impacted by the snow along with northern parts of Henan
      • Moisture
        totals will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few amounts to 1.25 inches
    • Another
      storm system may impact the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain this weekend into Monday with moisture totals of 0.20 to 0.75 inch and local totals over 1.00 inch
      • Snow
        totals will vary from 1 to 4 inches with a few local totals to 6 inches
        • The
          snow will not be nearly as widespread and significant as that of mid-week this week
    • Waves
      of rain will impact the Yangtze River Basin and the southern coastal provinces from mid-week this week through the first week in March
      • Rain
        totals of 0.70 to 2.50 inches with local totals over 3.00 inches are likely in each of the next two weeks
    • Excessively
      great moisture will be present in the Yangtze River Basin and areas to the south favoring rice planting, but raising a little concern over early season rapeseed condition. Some drying would be welcome. In the meantime, the greater than usual moisture in the
      North China Plain, Yellow River Basin and northeastern provinces will ensure abundant early season soil moisture for winter wheat development and spring planting, although not much planting is expected for a few weeks outside of the Yangtze River Basin and
      areas farther to the south.
  • East-central
    Australia cotton and sorghum areas will get alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the next ten days to two weeks favoring cotton, sorghum and other late season crops in northeastern New South Wales and parts of southeastern Queensland
    • Western
      New South Wales and southwestern Queensland will not get much rain
    • Wet
      weather will continue the Cape York Peninsula as well
  • Australia
    weekend rainfall was erratic and mostly significant in the Cape York Peninsula and along the upper New South Wales coast where amounts of 2.00 to more than 4.00 inches resulted
    • Net
      drying occurred elsewhere with some very warm to hot temperatures stressing livestock and minor crop areas from western Queensland and western New South Wales into South Australia and northwestern Victoria
  • South
    Africa experienced net drying during the weekend and temperatures were seasonable
  • South
    Africa will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms during the next couple of weeks along with periods of sunshine and seasonable temperatures
    • The
      bottom line will be very good for summer crop development. Yield potentials are already very good and this pattern will preserve that outlook
  • Europe
    temperatures will be above average except in the far west and in the Italian Peninsula where readings will be near average
    • Europe
      precipitation will continue restricted in the heart of the continent this week while rain falls more significantly in far northwestern parts of the United Kingdom, western Norway and parts of Spain where rain will be a little greater than usual
    • Europe
      Precipitation next week will be a little more significant in south-central parts of the continent while still restricted in many other areas
      • Temperatures
        are not likely to change much
    • Winter
      crops will remain dormant and in fair to good condition with little change likely
  • Russia’s
    New Lands will remain colder biased and some of the coolness will reach into Russia’s Southern Region, but no crop damaging cold is expected because of snowfall that will occur today and Monday ahead of Tuesday and Wednesday’s bitter cold
    • Extreme
      low temperatures will fall below zero Fahrenheit Wednesday morning in Russia’s New Lands and the snow free area today will have snow by that time protecting winter crops
  • U.S.
    temperatures in the coming two weeks will be seasonable with a cooler bias in the western states and a slight warmer bias in the east
    • There
      is potential for cooling in the north-central states during the second week of March
  • U.S.
    precipitation this week
    • A
      weak weather system will move through the northeastern states today
    • Rain
      will develop in the southeastern Plains and Delta late this week into the weekend that will bring moisture to the southeastern and middle Atlantic Coast states as well during the weekend
      • Sufficient
        rain will occur to maintain wet field conditions in the Delta and southeastern states possibly leading to delays in early season farming activity
    • Another
      storm system is possible late in the weekend and especially early next week from the southeastern Plains and Delta the lower Midwest and middle Atlantic Coast States
      • Moisture
        totals will vary from 0.40 to 1.35 inches and local totals over 1.50 inches
      • A
        band of heavy snow will occur across the Great Lakes region into the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada Sunday into next Monday
        • Some
          significant accumulations of more than 6 inches will be possible
  • U.S.
    weather the remainder of next week will generate another weak storm system possibly in the southern Plains that might move to the lower Midwest and Delta March 1-2
    • Another
      storm may evolve in the Plains March 3-4 before moving to the Midwest March 4-5
    • Confidence
      in these last two storm systems is very low
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains and southwestern Plains will experience limited precipitation during the coming ten days, although not necessarily completely dry
    • Dry
      biases will remain in the soil
  • U.S.
    Delta and much of the southeastern states will remain very wet over the next ten days excepting southern Georgia, Florida and southeastern Alabama where net drying is expected
    • Northern
      Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama may not be impacted as much as other areas in the southeastern states
  • U.S.
    Midwest will remain plenty wet across most of the region over the next two weeks with some drier bias in the northwest
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will remain plenty moist over the next ten days to two weeks
  • U.S.
    southwestern states will remain drier biased for the next ten days to two weeks
  • Southwestern
    Morocco received up to 0.60 inch of moisture through this morning while a few showers also occurred in north-central Morocco and north-central Algeria with rainfall of up to 0.92 inch and 0.47 inch respectively
    • Temperatures
      were seasonable
  • North
    Africa precipitation will be erratic and light during the next ten days
    • The
      moisture will be welcome, but probably not enough to seriously bolster soil moisture
    • The
      greatest need for rain remains in southwestern Morocco and northwestern Algeria along with a few northeastern border areas of Morocco
    • Temperatures
      will remain seasonable

 

  • West-central
    Africa precipitation during the weekend was restricted and net drying occurred in most areas
    • Showers
      will occur mostly near the coast through Friday, but may expand northward into Ivory Coast and Ghana coffee and cocoa production areas briefly during the weekend and early next week
      • Resulting
        rainfall will be light, but still welcome and good for early season flowering that began in some areas earlier this month
  • East-central
    Africa precipitation during the weekend was most significant in Tanzania and lightest in Uganda and Ethiopia
    • Scattered
      showers and thunderstorms will occur this week with the lightest and most infrequent rain occurring in Ethiopia and parts of Uganda while the most significant rain occurs in Tanzania where all crop areas will get moisture
    • Next
      week will be drier in Ethiopia and Kenya while little change occurs elsewhere
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall will occur relatively normally over the next two weeks except for heavy Philippines rainfall early this week due to Tropical Depression Dujuan
    • Mainland
      areas were mostly dry during the weekend and not much change is likely, although a few showers could pop up across the region next week
      • All
        the precipitation will be sporadic and light having little to no impact on crops
    • Rain
      will fall excessively in the central Philippines as Tropical Depression Dujuan moves across the Visayan Islands from southeast to northwest today into Tuesday
      • Some
        flooding will occur and a little damage is possible
      • Rainfall
        otherwise is expected to be scattered and mostly light to moderate over the next two weeks
    • Indonesia
      and Malaysia weather during the next two weeks will bring rain to most crop areas maintaining a very good outlook for crop development
      • Sumatra,
        Peninsular Malaysia and eastern Borneo were dry Friday into Sunday morning and some areas in Sulawesi reported minimal amounts of rain
  • New
    Zealand weather during the weekend was wettest in North Island where rainfall was lightest in January
    • South
      Island trended drier with very little or significance during the weekend
    • Temperatures
      were mild to warm
    • New
      Zealand Weather is expected to be a little drier biased in the coming week with temperatures near to above average
  • Tropical
    Storm Guambe was located over open water south southeast of Madagascar moving away from southern Africa and Madagascar today
    • The
      storm poses no threat to land

 

  • Southern
    Oscillation Index today was +15.18 today and the index will level off this week after rising during the weekend and there is a good chance it will fall later this week
  • Indian
    Ocean Dipole remains neutral and is expected to remain that way through May, but could drift to a slight negative IOD bias during the late summer
  • Mexico
    precipitation in the coming ten days will be mostly confined to the east coast
  • Central
    America precipitation will continue greatest along the Caribbean Coast and in Guatemala while the Pacific Coast is relatively dry
  • Canada
    Prairies will experience seasonable temperatures over the next ten days with precipitation mostly below average
    • Some
      occasional precipitation will occur along the front range of mountains in Alberta and in the extreme northern parts of the crop country
  • Southeast
    Canada will experience near normal amounts of precipitation in the coming week while temperatures are seasonable.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Feb 22:

  • USDA
    Export Inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • MARS
    crop bulletin
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EARNINGS:
    Wilmar
  • HOLIDAY:
    Russia

Tuesday,
Feb 23:

  • USDA
    Milk production, 3pm
  • U.S.
    pork, beef, poultry cold storage data, 3pm
  • U.K.
    National Farmers Union virtual annual conference to discuss the future of agriculture, horticulture
  • EARNINGS:
    IOI Corp.
  • HOLIDAYS:
    Japan, Russia

Wednesday,
Feb 24:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Amsterdam
    sustainable cocoa conference (Feb 24-26)
  • U.S.
    poultry slaughter, 3pm
  • MPOB
    palm oil prices seminar

Thursday,
Feb 25:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Malaysia’s
    Feb. 1-25 palm oil export data
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3pm
  • EARNINGS:
    Minerva, BRF, FGV (tentative), Golden Agri

Friday,
Feb 26:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • Earnings:
    Olam
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat      
324,597     versus  300000-550000           range

Corn         
1,231,810  versus  500000-1400000         range

Soybeans  
721,845     versus  300000-950000           range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 18, 2021

                           
— METRIC TONS —

                      
                            CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      02/18/2021  02/11/2021  02/20/2020    TO DATE     TO DATE  

BARLEY         
2,395       1,597           0       28,628       28,432 

CORN       
1,231,810   1,314,960     923,999   23,997,794   13,310,308 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          509          520 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS            
 100           0           0        2,493        3,143 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM      
124,101      71,084      16,661    3,461,982    1,328,470 

SOYBEANS     
721,845     922,181     573,450   50,916,438   28,832,628 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
324,597     418,816     437,336   17,758,763   18,157,632 

Total      
2,404,848   2,728,638   1,951,446   96,166,607   61,661,133 

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Macros

US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Jan: 0.66 (est 0.50; prevR 0.41; prev 0.52)

StatsCan
Revises Canadian January Core Inflation To 1.77%

 

Corn.

  • Corn
    futures traded higher on technical buying and expectations US corn shipments will increase after February on slowing Black Sea exports.  Slow Mato Grosso, Brazil, corn plantings was also seen supportive.  Back month contracts gained over current crop year.
  • Funds
    bought an estimated net 25,000 corn contracts.

  • USDA
    US corn export inspections as of February 18, 2021 were 1,231,810 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,314,960 tons previous week and compares to 923,999 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 332,271 tons, Japan for 227,681 tons,
    and Vietnam for 146,198 tons.
  • China’s
    AgMin said hog inventories are expected to return to end-2017 levels by around June.  Officials also said they will enhance its ability to secure supplies of grains and other agricultural products, and support companies to integrate into supply chains of global
    agricultural products. 
  • During
    the trading session, the US EPA announced they will not move on any decision on facility blending exemptions until the US Supreme Court rules on it.  This could take months.  Separately they sided with the appeals court’s decision that sided with limiting
    oil refiners exemptions to U.S. biofuel blending laws a win for agriculture lobby groups.  In January 2020 the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled waivers granted to small refineries after 2010 should only be approved as extensions.
  • In
    our opinion, with introduction of new methods of renewable energy, RSF2 needs to be reexamined. 
  • US
    DDGS exports could slow over the next 1-2 months over container shortages and rising freights rates along with slowing US ethanol production and high soybean meal prices that make the commodity attractive for domestic feeding. 
  • We
    look for US ethanol production to be down 30 to 40 thousand barrels per day for the week ending February 19 due to plant closers and slowdowns. 
  • IMEA
    reported Just under 36% of the corn crop was planted by mid-February, below 80% year ago and 5-year average of 62.5%. 
  • A
    Reuters poll calls for South Africa’s CEC to initially report their 2020-21 corn production at 16.872 million tons, up from the 15.300 million tons last season.  The first survey of the season is expected to show 8.929 million tons of white maize and 7.943
    million tons of yellow maize.  They will release the report on Thursday. 
  • The
    European Union granted imports licenses for 3,372 tons of corn imports, bringing cumulative 2020-21 imports to 14.348 MMT, 28 percent below same period year ago. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

·        
South Korea’s NOFI passed on 69,000 tons of corn for arrival in South Korea around June 20. Prices were too high.  Lowest price offered was $298.02 a ton c&f.

 

Source:
Reuters

 

 

Updated
2/22/21

March
corn is seen trading in a $5.25 and $5.75 range (up 5, lowered 25)

May
corn is seen in a $5.15 and $6.00 range.

July
is seen in a $5.00 and $6.00 range.

December
corn is seen in a $3.75-$6.00 range. (unchanged, up 25)

 

 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • CBOT
    soybean futures traded two-sided in old crop, ending on a strong note with help from a surge in new crop futures.  USDA export inspections are starting to slow but China was in there for about 156,000 tons.  We look for CBOT soybean prices to stabilize on
    slowing US exports, but one can’t rule out influence from unperceptive upside moves in Canadian canola prices.  China cash crush margins eroded from the previous week. Look for traders to soon shift focus on US plantings.  Fieldwork across the Delta will begin
    by the end of this month in select locations
    .
  • SMH
    closed Friday below 50 day MA for 1st time since Aug 12 and today was under pressure on technical selling.  The SMN/SMZ spread was active with the back months strong and nearby contracts on the defensive.  Soybean prices for new crop gained over old crop. 
  • Last
    week we saw heavy March/May soybean oil spreading and today there was heavy volume in the August 59 calls with over 7,500 trading by late morning. 
  • We
    see limited upside in CBOT soybean oil, in our opinion, but can’t fight the current trade.  Oil share appears high to us but relative to history and tight world vegetable oil stocks, would not discount upside potential.  With Argentina product production back
    to normal, we caution volatility in meal and oil prices for the next few weeks.  Beginning of March traders will get a better understanding of January SBO demand when NASS updates their oilseed crush report. 
  • The
    Brazilian Real was down 2% this morning before pairing some losses with the Brazilian president firing head of Petrobras.
  • USDA
    US soybean export inspections as of February 18, 2021 were 721,845 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 922,181 tons previous week and compares to 573,450 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 155,928 tons, Netherlands for 139,100
    tons, and Egypt for 105,082 tons.
  • Argentina
    saw an improvement in rain over the weekend that could boost late crop conditions. 
  • Consultancy
    Pablo Adreani and Associates sees the late January and February rain improving crop prospects.  They project 50 million tons of soy and 51 million tons of corn. Rosario grain exchange is at 49 million tons for soybeans and 48.5 million tons for corn. 
  • Argentina
    will be very warm to hot and experience net drying conditions in many areas during the coming ten days after a few early week thunderstorms.  Restricted rainfall is expected from Mato Grosso and southwestern Sao Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul and Paraguay. 
  • Argentina’s
    soybean crush is starting to pick up.  It hit a five-year high during January at 3.22 million tons, up nearly 900,000 tons from a year earlier and up sharply from 808,200 tons during December.  2020 crush stood at 35.9 million tons.  AgriCensus calculated
    that was the lowest crush since 2013.
  • Harvest
    progress of soybeans in Brazil continues to lag.  AgRural reported 15 percent of the soybean crop had been collected as of February 18 versus 31 percent this time year ago and slowest in ten years.  IMEA reported Mato Grosso was just over 33 percent harvested
    by mid-February, below a five-year average of 58% and well behind last year’s pace of 73.2%.
  • Funds
    bought an estimated net 6,000 soybean contracts, sold 2,000 soybean meal and bought an estimated 2,000 soybean oil. 
  • ICE
    canola May futures were 16.40 higher at 751.90/ton.
  • APK-Inform:
    Ukrainian-origin sunoil prices rose to a range of $1,395 to $1,415 per ton FOB Black Sea with delivery in March-April.
  • India
    exported 498,060 tons of oilmeal during the month of January, up from 169,397 tons year ago.  (oilmeal includes all major meals). 
  • We
    heard China bought at least one Brazilian soybean cargo since Friday, for March shipment. 
  • Heavy
    rain is in the forecast for parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java and Sulawesi areas that threaten palm oil production.  Indonesia has a high tax on palm exports that is shift trade business to Malaysia. 
  • SGS
    reported a 28 percent increase in Malaysian palm exports for the Feb 1-20 period from the previous month to 734,622 tons.  AmSpec reported February 1-20 palm oil exports at 697,794 tons, up 10.3 percent from the same period last month.  ITS reported Feb 1-20
    shipments up 14.9% at 698,380 tons. 
  • The
    European Union reported soybean import licenses since July 1 at 9.359 million tons, above 9.128 million tons a year ago. European Union soybean meal import licenses are running at 11.123 million tons so far for 2020-21, below 11.785 million tons a year ago.
    EU palm oil import licenses are running at 3.622 million tons for 2020-21, below 3.649 million tons a year ago, or down 1 percent.
  • European
    Union rapeseed import licenses since July 1 were 4.293 million tons, down 4 percent from 4.469 million tons from the same period a year ago.

 

Soybean
Complex Export Developments

 

May
CBOT Oil Share

We
think the recent rise has been more related to strong US domestic cash prices. 

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Oil
Share second month rolling

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

 

Updated
2/22/21

March
soybeans are seen in a $13.50 and $14.25 range.  (unchanged, lowered)

March
soymeal is seen in a $415 and $435 range. (unchanged, lowered)

March
soybean oil is seen in a 46.50 and 49.00 cent range (up 150, up 50)

 

Wheat

  • Wheat
    futures ended sharply higher after Algeria bought barley and Saudi Arabia secured wheat.  The USD was 25 points lower by midafternoon CT.  Chicago led the rally on fund buying.  During the trade KC was up most for the three markets.  Talk of cold temperatures
    for the Black Sea came up today but note as Ukraine went under a cold spell a week and half ago, corn shipments seemed uninterrupted.  Traders should monitor lineups for Black Sea that are corn focused based rather than wheat unless Russia cannot fulfill commitments
    from the late surge in their wheat export demand prior to the export tax kicking in. 
  • Funds
    bought an estimated 12,000 soft red winter wheat contracts. 
  • USDA
    US all-wheat export inspections as of February 18, 2021 were 324,597 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 418,816 tons previous week and compares to 437,336 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 67,260 tons, Peru for 49,499 tons, and
    Nigeria for 48,242 tons.
  • EU
    March milling wheat was up 0.75 euros at 239.50 euros. 
  • APK-Inform:
    Ukrainian-origin 12.5% protein wheat stood at $278 to $285 per ton FOB Black Sea. 
  • SovEcon
    reported Black Sea export prices for wheat unchanged from a week ago at $248 per ton while IKA reported 12.5% protein at $283/ton fob, up $5.50 from the previous week. 
  • The
    European Union granted export licenses for 18,000 tons of soft wheat exports, bringing cumulative 2020-21 soft wheat export commitments to 16.590 MMT, well down from 20.341 million tons committed at this time last year, an 18 percent decrease.  Imports are
    up slightly from year ago at 1.504 million tons.

 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Algeria
    bought about 150,000 tons of feed barley for LH March shipment. 
    • 30,000
      tons at about $277 a ton c&f
    • 120,000
      tons at about $281 a ton c&f
  • Saudi
    Arabia’s SAGO plans to import 355,000 ton of wheat at an average price of $330.04 per ton from farms from in Australia, Canada and Ukraine for delivery from May to December 2021.
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on February 24.
  • Japan
    seeks 57,331 tons of Australian milling wheat this week. 

  • Syria
    seeks 200,000 tons of wheat for shipment within 60 days of contract signing. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of barley on February 23.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Copper futures hit a 9 year high.

·        
London cocoa hit a 2-month high. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 4,000 tons of long grain white rice, optional origin, on March 2, for delivery between April 15 and June 15.

 

 

Updated
2/22/21

March
Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.30‐$7.00 range.

March
KC wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.70 range.

March
MN wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.55 range.

We
see the May trading ranges keeping a 10 to 15 cent premium over March for the balance of the month. 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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