FI Evening Grain Comments 02/08/21

PDF Attached

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Feb 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
• (CASDE
  ?)
• France
  agriculture ministry updates 2021 winter-crop planting estimates

 

Wednesday,
Feb 10:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on January palm oil end- stocks, output, exports
• Malaysia
  Feb. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, Intertek, SGS
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains report
• HOLIDAY:
  Vietnam

Thursday,
Feb 11:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Conab’s
  data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans in Brazil
• Russian
  consultant IKAR holds agricultural conference, day 1
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam

Friday,
Feb 12:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Russian
  consultant IKAR holds agricultural conference, day 2
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Feb 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
• (CASDE
  ?)
• France
  agriculture ministry updates 2021 winter-crop planting estimates

Wednesday,
Feb 10:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on January palm oil end- stocks, output, exports
• Malaysia
  Feb. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, Intertek, SGS
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains report
• HOLIDAY:
  Vietnam

Thursday,
Feb 11:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Conab’s
  data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans in Brazil
• Russian
  consultant IKAR holds agricultural conference, day 1
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam

Friday,
Feb 12:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Russian
  consultant IKAR holds agricultural conference, day 2
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures surged in a session we cannot explain.  Outside markets were positive.   Funds bought an estimated net 40,000 contracts.
  That is a big amount we otherwise debate given the positioning today. 
• Goldman
  roll – day 2. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

• The
  European Union granted imports licenses for 20,000 tons of corn imports, bringing cumulative 2020-21 imports to 9.989 MMT, 27 percent below same period year ago

 

Source:
Trade News Service 

 

Updated
1/29/21

March
corn is seen trading in a $5.15 and $6.00 range. 

May
corn is seen in a $5.00 and $6.00 range. 

July
is seen in a $4.90 and $5.75 range. 

December
is seen in a $3.75-$5.50 range. 

 

Soybean
complex.
 

• Higher
  session on higher palm oi, and fears global veg oils sill drive business to the US..   
  
• Funds
  sold an estimated net 17,000 CBOT soybean contracts, bought 5,000 soybean meal and bought 9,000 soybean oil. 
  
• We
  heard China bought an April Brazilian soybean cargo Thursday, one shipment for May from Brazil and a February US boat. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins were 203 cents on our calculation (216 previous), compared to 171 at the end of last week and to 84 year ago.
  
• The
  European Union reported soybean import licenses since July 1 at 8.948 million tons, above 8.471 million tons a year ago. European Union soybean meal import licenses are running at 10.338 million tons so far for 2020-21, below 11.468 million tons a year ago.
  EU palm oil import licenses are running at 3.464 million tons for 2020-21, above 3.426 million tons a year ago, or up 3 percent.
• European
  Union rapeseed import licenses since July 1 were 4.225 million tons, down 1 percent from 4.272 million tons from the same period a year ago.

 

 

Updated
1/26/21

March
soybeans are seen in a $13.25 and $14.75 range 

March
soymeal is seen in a $410 and $480 range

March
soybean oil is seen in a 42.50 and 45.00 cent range

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat ended higher on technical buying despite a higher USD. 
• Funds
  bought an estimated net 12,000 Chicago wheat contracts. 
• The
  European Union granted export licenses for 301,000 tons of soft wheat exports, bringing cumulative 2020-21 soft wheat export commitments to 15.815 MMT, well down from 18.865 million tons committed at this time last year, a 16 percent decrease.  Imports are
  down slightly from year ago at 1.487 million tons.

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of animal feed barley on Feb. 9.
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on Feb 10.  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria is in for 25,000 tons of rice on February 9. 

 

Export
Developments.

• Japan
  seeks milling wheat this week.

• The
  Philippines seeks 230,000 tons of feed wheat on February 9 for April-June shipment if from the Black Sea or May and June if from Australia. 
  
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of animal feed barley on Feb. 9.
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on Feb 10.  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria is in for 25,000 tons of rice on February 9. 

 

Updated
2/2/21

March
Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.35‐$7.15 range

March
KC wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.70 range (lowered 25 low end)

March
MN wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.55 range