PDF Attached
US
trade data will be released on Friday. Higher USD limited upside potential in soybeans today. Meal was a puzzler with cold US temps on the horizon. USDA export sales shattered the record as expected for corn and were good all-around for the other commodities.
USDA may lower their US corn ending stocks for the current season by 50 million bushels with adjustments to demand (exports higher and feed lower) on Tuesday but leave the US soybean and wheat ending stocks unchanged, in our opinion. Trade estimates indicate
otherwise.
CME
Margins update on Corn and Wheat.
https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/02/Chadv21-050.html
![]()
Weather



MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:
Not
much has changed overnight. Brazil weather will remain well mixed supporting full season crops and late season soybeans. Enough dry weather will support soybean harvesting and Safrinha crop planting. Excessive rain noted recently in Paraguay and parts of southern
Brazil induced some flash flooding, but most crops likely “weathered” the situation relatively well. There have been local areas of crop quality declines because of recent wet weather in Brazil, but the nation’s crop is mostly rated favorably.
Central
Argentina soil moisture was bolstered in a major way in recent weeks. Crop development in Cordoba, northern Buenos Aires, central and southern Santa Fe and parts of Entre Rios will advance favorably during the next two weeks. A favorable mix of additional
rain and sunshine is expected in much of the nation.
South
Africa summer crop conditions remain very good with little change likely. Australia’s dryland sorghum and other crops would benefit from more routine rainfall, especially in Queensland, but that is not likely for a while.
India
winter crops are beginning to reproduce, and timely rain is needed to support the best possible yields. Crop conditions are rated favorably. Rain this week is not likely to seriously bolster soil moisture outside of the far north, but every drop of moisture
will be good for reproduction. More rain is desired, though.
China and Europe crops are mostly dormant and will remain in favorable condition for the next few weeks. Western Europe has become a little too wet.
Overall,
weather today will likely provide a neutral to slightly bearish bias to market mentality.
MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: Concern remains over snow free areas in southwestern Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern and west-central U.S. Plains as colder air settles into those areas for a while late this week and through the weekend. Snow should precede
the bitter cold to adequately protect dormant winter crops from winterkill. A close monitoring of the region will be warranted when the coldest conditions arrive to make sure snow cover is adequate to protect all crops. There is potential that a few wheat
areas will remain snow free.
Snow
cover in northern Russia and northeastern Europe is sufficient to support crop needs during the colder periods that may evolve over the next week and deeper into February. Snow free areas in southern Europe, Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region should not
be threatened by damaging cold weather in the next week.
China,
India and Europe winter crops are in mostly good condition. Rain is needed in India during reproduction in February and a close watch on rain potentials is warranted over the next few weeks. Showers later this week over the next few days in the far north and
extreme east will be welcome, but greater volumes of rain will still be desired.
Morocco
rain expected into the weekend will improve topsoil moisture for better wheat development potential in the spring. However, drought during the planting season may have permanently cut production in a small part of the nation. A boost in precipitation is still
needed across all other areas in northern Africa, but no area is drier than southwestern Morocco.
Recent
increases in Middle East rainfall has improved field condition so that some improvement in crop conditions may follow.
Overall,
weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality.
Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI
FI
US acreage update
From
previous for 2021:
Raised
sorghum by 100,000 acres
Raised
corn by 300,000 acres
Raised
soybeans by 250,000 acres
Lowered
spring wheat 50,000 acres
YOY
15 crops up 10.24 million acres…could be more when initially reported by USDA in March intentions.

Thursday,
Feb 4:
- FAO
World Food Price Index; cereals supply/demand brief - USDA
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports
Friday,
Feb 5:
- US
Trade Balance - Statcan
reports on wheat, soy, durum, canola and barley stockpiles in Canada - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - China’s
CNGOIC to publish soybean and corn reports
Monday,
Feb 8:
- USDA
weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - HOLIDAY:
New Zealand
Tuesday,
Feb 9:
- USDA’s
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon - (CASDE
?) - France
agriculture ministry updates 2021 winter-crop planting estimates
Wednesday,
Feb 10:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Malaysian
Palm Oil Board data on January palm oil end- stocks, output, exports - Malaysia
Feb. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, Intertek, SGS - FranceAgriMer
monthly grains report - HOLIDAY:
Vietnam
Thursday,
Feb 11:
- USDA
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - Conab’s
data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans in Brazil - Russian
consultant IKAR holds agricultural conference, day 1 - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - HOLIDAY:
China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam
Friday,
Feb 12:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - Russian
consultant IKAR holds agricultural conference, day 2 - New
Zealand Food Prices - HOLIDAY:
China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines


US
Factory Orders Dec: 1.1% (est 0.7%; prev R 1.3%)
–
Factory Orders Ex Transport Dec: 1.4% (prev R 1.1%)
–
Durable Goods Orders Dec F: 0.5% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
–
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transport Dec F: 1.1% (est 0.7%; prev 0.7%)
–
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air Dec F: 0.7% (prev 0.5%)
Corn.
-
Corn
futures closed lower again the nearby front three contacts and higher in the back months, as we pounder a higher March US planting intentions report and recent absence of Chica corn purchases.
-
The
USD, up higher this morning, was flat by late afternoon. -
Energies
were mostly higher. There
were no USDA 24-hour sales this morning.
(Reuters)
– Argentina’s 2020/21 corn crop is expected at 46 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains
Corn
Export Developments
·
South Korea’s MFG bought 137,000 tons of corn from South America and optional origin. One consignment of 69,000 tons expected to be sourced from South America was bought from trading house Bunge
at an estimated $287.83 a ton c&f for shipment from South America between March 22 and April 10 for arrival in South Korea around May 20. The second consignment of 68,000 tons, optional origin, was bought at $289.89 a ton c&f for shipment May 10-29 if sourced
from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, between April 20 and May 9 if sourced from the U.S. Gulf or Black Sea region/east Europe, between April 15 and May 4 if from South America or between April 25 and May 14 if from South Africa. (Reuters)
·
Turkey seeks 235,000 tons of corn on Feb 11 for shipment Feb 19.



Updated
1/29/21
March
corn is seen trading in a $5.15 and $6.00 range.
May
corn is seen in a $5.00 and $6.00 range.
July
is seen in a $4.90 and $5.75 range.
December
is seen in a $3.75-$5.50 range.
