PDF Attached

 

Happy
New Year!

 

A
strong USD capped early fund buying to the start of the new quarter/year in grains. Soybeans ended higher in large part to another strong day in soybean meal. US soybean inspections fell to their lowest level since late September. NASS reported a soybean crush
below expectations and November corn crush above expectations.

 

The
GFS model for South America is drier this morning while the European model suggests about unchanged from Friday’s outlook. Brazil saw rain over the weekend across the northern areas and spotty rain southern of southern MG and Sao Paulo. Argentina saw spotty
but beneficial rain over the weekend. Northern Cordoba western BA and La Pampa was mostly dry. Brazil will see rain over the next week, but the southern areas will see deficits while the north will be too wet for early harvesting in some areas. Argentina will
see variable rain, but the greatest concern are hot temperatures keeping the dry areas dry from evaporation during rain events. Looking forward, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build up across Argentina after day ten of the forecast (around January
12-13) and prevail through mid-month which may lead to drier and warmer weather for Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. The US southern Great Plains will see limited precipitation and cold temperatures this week.

 

Weather

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World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH

  • Northern
    Argentina was excessively hot during the weekend, but should cool down this week for a little while
    • Extreme
      highs reached 115 Fahrenheit in Santiago del Estero while 100 to 111 was common in the north half of the nation
    • A
      short term bout of warming is expected ahead of a Sunday/Monday rain event
      • The
        precipitation Sunday into Monday will be greatest from southern Cordoba through central Buenos Aires and will restore favorable topsoil moisture after a bout of rising stress this workweek
  • Rain
    fell beneficially in central parts of Argentina Friday through Sunday
    • Some
      of the rain was greater than expected with up to 1.50 inches resulting
      • Most
        of the rain fell from southern and central Cordoba into northern Buenos Aires and east across most of Santa Fe and much of Entre Rios
        • Most
          areas received 0.20 to 0.75 inch
    • Greater
      rain fell in central and southwestern Chaco where 1.00 to nearly 2.00 inches resulted
    • A
      few showers also occurred in northern Santiago del Estero with one location reporting 2.38 inches in the northeast
    • Northern
      and central Cordoba, southern Santiago del Estero, La Pampa and much of central Buenos Aires were dry along with Corrientes
      • Far
        southern Buenos Aires reported up to 0.57 inch
  • The
    next greatest rain event in Argentina will be Sunday and Monday of next week at which time some significant rain “may” occur from southern Cordoba to central Buenos Aires
    • The
      models are not in agreement with this event, but the European model has been outperforming the GFS and it suggests some 1.00 to 2.00-inch rain totals will be possible
      • If
        that that occurs as advertised, the key crop areas from Cordoba to central Buenos Aires will see relief from recent drying and a restoration of more favorable crop development
  • Argentina
    will experience a new ridge of high pressure evolving in the latter part of next week and lasting through January 18 restoring dryness and crop stress through limited rain and warm to hot temperatures
  • Southern
    Brazil will begin receiving periodic showers and thunderstorms this week and that trend will last into next week
    • The
      precipitation will be erratic and more favorable for some areas than others, but most of the dry areas in the south will get enough rain to induce at least a short term improvement in crop and field conditions
    • Drier
      weather is expected at the end of next week through Jan. 19 with some warmer temperatures possible as well
  • Northern
    Brazil’s frequent rainfall pattern will prevail through the next couple of weeks maintaining a wet environment for crops and raising a little concern for maturation and harvest progress of early season soybeans
    • The
      wettest conditions are expected from eastern Mato Grosso to Tocantins, western Bahia, Minas Gerais and northeastern Sao Paulo where the ground will stay saturated and areas of standing and running water are expected
    • Most
      of the early planted soybeans are farther to the west where rainfall will not be as heavy or persistent from western and central Mato Grosso to southwestern Sao Paulo and Parana
      • Fieldwork
        will advance around the showers and thunderstorms
  • Safrinha
    corn and cotton planting prospects are still very good in Mato Grosso and areas south into Parana and Sao Paulo this year
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat damage may have occurred during the weekend due to bitter cold temperatures and a few areas of very limited or no snow cover
    • Extreme
      lows fell to -20 at North Platte, Neb. and -18 at Limon, Colorado while readings of -16 to -10 occurred in several other pockets in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado
      • Northwestern
        half of Kansas reported lows below zero while positive single digit readings occurred in the southeast half of Kansas and the Texas Panhandle
        • Crop
          damage was most likely in southwestern Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and in a few counties of northwestern Kansas where snow cover was lightest or non-existent
      • Very
        little damage likely occurred in the Texas Panhandle because of single digit low temperatures and a little snow, but the region’s crops were shocked after being in the 60s and 70s before the coldest weather hit
      • Damage
        assessments will not be complete until spring
  • Another
    bout of bitter cold is expected in the central Plains late this week and snow cover may be limited in a few areas
    • The
      cold will occur after sufficient warming takes place to melt most of the snow that fell during the weekend
    • Some
      snow will precede the coolest conditions Wednesday and Thursday, but it may not cover all areas that may slip below zero Friday.
    • The
      situation will be closely monitored for possible winterkill
  • Snow
    fell across many U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas during the weekend with depths of 1 to 5 inches across southeastern Colorado west-central through north-central Kansas and from extreme northeastern Colorado to the North Platte area of Nebraska
    with North Platte reporting 6 inches
    • A
      trace to 2 inches occurred in other areas from eastern Colorado to southwestern Nebraska; including far northwestern Kansas 
    • A
      trace to 1 inch of snow fell in the Texas Panhandle and south-central into eastern wheat areas of Kansas
  • Snow
    also fell significantly from far northern Kansas and southern Nebraska to southeastern Wisconsin and southern Michigan where 3 to 9 inches resulted
    • One
      more band of significant snow fell in southern South Dakota in the Interstate Highway 90 corridor where a trace to 2 inches occurred most often and local totals to 4 inches
  • Heavy
    snow in Tennessee River Basin overnight has snarled traffic
    • The
      storm will shift to North Carolina and Virginia today where more than a foot of snow is possible resulting in transportation delays in that region, as well
  • Heavy
    rain fell during the weekend in the lower U.S. Midwest and especially in the Ohio River Valley southward into the Tennessee River Basin and northern Arkansas
    • Rain
      totals varied from 1.00 to 4.00 inches and locally more from northern Arkansas to central Kentucky and there were a few reports of wind damage
    • Minor
      flooding is occurring in the lower Midwest, a part of the northern Delta and in a few Tennessee River Basin locations
  • Lighter
    precipitation fell in the lower U.S. Delta and southeastern states during the weekend, but  one to three inches was noted Sunday in the Carolinas and Virginia and up to 2.10 inches occurred in southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle
    • This
      precipitation was helpful in easing recent drying
  • Some
    areas in West Texas received up to 0.44 inch of moisture during the weekend which was welcome, but most amounts were no more than 0.20 inch
    • West
      Texas is not likely to see much more precipitation of significance for a while
  • U.S.
    temperatures during the weekend turned bitterly cold in the Plains and western Corn Belt and continued quite cold in the northern Plains, although Sunday was warmer in this latter area
    • Extreme
      lows of -20 to -37 Fahrenheit occurred from northern Montana to northern Minnesota with Grand Forks, N.D. coldest
    • Subzero
      degree lows occurred as far south as northern New Mexico extreme northwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle, Central Kansas and northern Missouri
  • U.S.
    weather over the next ten days will downplay precipitation in the central and southern Plains, although it will not be completely dry
    • Precipitation
      totals will be well below average
    • Frequent
      precipitation will impact the lower Ohio River Valley, the Tennessee River Valley, portions of the Delta and the middle and northern Atlantic Coast states
    • Storminess
      in the far western states will be more restricted to the Pacific Northwest over these next ten days and probably for two weeks
      • Some
        excessive wind and rain have impacted the Puget Sound and Cascade Mountains recently
    • Temperatures
      in the western United States will likely trend warmer than usual as time moves along in this first half of January
  • Snow
    should fall most significantly in the coming ten days from Canada’s western Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains to the Great Lakes region and in a small part of the west-central high Plains region and in northern parts of the lower Midwest
    • Some
      waves of snow will impact the middle and northern Atlantic Coast states during the coming week
  • Europe
    weather has been and should continue to be good for dormant winter crops
    • Concern
      about dryness in Spain may continue for a while, but soil moisture and snow cover should be sufficient for crops elsewhere over the next ten days
  • North
    Africa precipitation will increase during mid- to late week this week in north-central and northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia, but precipitation in Morocco will be quite limited
    • Southwestern
      Morocco continues to be a notable multi-year drought and dryness is also a concern in northwestern Algeria
      • Crops
        elsewhere are doing relatively well
  • Warmer
    temperatures in parts of Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region during the weekend induced a little rain while snow fell frequently to the north
  • No
    threatening cold weather is expected anytime soon in Europe or the western CIS
    • Snow
      cover will remain widespread across much of Russia and the northernmost part of Ukraine as well as some areas in eastern Europe
    • Winter
      crops are in good conditions no change is expected
  • China’s
    weather will continue mostly uneventful for a while, although periods of rain and a little snow will impact the Yangtze River Basin during the next couple of weeks.
    • The
      moisture will preserve the integrity of the 2022 rapeseed and southern wheat crops
    • Snow
      will fall periodically in the far northeast while the Yellow River Basin and southern coastal provinces receive little to no precipitation
    • Temperatures
      will be near to slightly warmer than usual
  • Northern,
    central and eastern India will receive rain this week and during the weekend that will moisten the topsoil and help support crop development ahead of reproduction
    • Wheat,
      millet, rapeseed and some pulse crops will be among the beneficiaries of the precipitation
    • Southern
      India will be relatively dry, although significant rain fell along the lower east coast during the weekend
  • Southeast
    Asia oil palm, citrus, sugarcane, coffee, cocoa, rice and other crop areas of Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines will receive frequent bouts of rain over the next two weeks
    • Some
      heavy rain is possible, but no serious widespread flood problem is expected
      • Local
        flooding will be possible, though
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will be mostly dry during the next ten days except Vietnam coastal areas where some heavy rain will occur late this week and into the weekend
  • Australia
    weekend precipitation was limited the far northeastern New South Wales and extreme southeastern Queensland where 0.15 to 1.18 inches occurred with a few coastal areas getting more than 2.00 inches
    • Most
      other areas were dry and temperatures were very warm to hot from interior eastern parts of the nation into interior parts of Western Australia
    • Rain
      is needed in western sorghum and western cotton areas in Queensland and New South Wales as well as in many livestock grazing areas in the two states
  • Australia
    weather will not change much through Tuesday
    • Thunderstorms
      are expected in eastern parts of New South Wales and a few interior southeastern Queensland locations during the second half of this week and into the weekend
    • Rainfall
      will be greatest along the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range in New South Wales
    • The
      precipitation may continue next week as scattered showers and thunderstorms that will benefit summer crops in both Queensland and New South Wales
    • Southeastern
      Australia will be wettest including southeastern crop areas of New South Wales and central through eastern crop areas of Victoria
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above normal
    • Late
      season winter crop harvesting in the south should not be seriously impacted by rain since most of the crop has been harvested
  • South
    Africa will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, although the precipitation will be limited in the central and west for a while this week
    • The
      long term summer outlook remains favorable
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • West-central
    Africa precipitation will be limited to coastal areas and temperatures will be a little warmer than usual
  • East-central
    Africa will be erratic, but it is expected daily through the next ten days supporting coffee, cocoa, rice sugarcane and other crops
  • Middle
    East precipitation is expected to be erratically distributed over the next couple of weeks
    • Winter
      crops will benefit from whatever rain falls, but it is not expected to be evenly distributed for a while
  • Northwestern
    Mexico received some welcome rain during the weekend with moisture totals to 1.25 inches western Chihuahua and parts of Baja California
    • The
      precipitation was welcome to winter crops in the region lifted topsoil moisture briefly, but much more rain is needed
    • The
      region will be dry, like most of Mexico during the coming week to ten days.
      • Some
        showers are expected in the far south and a few extreme eastern parts of the nation late this week into early next week
  • Central
    America precipitation will be greatest along the Caribbean Coast , but including a fair amount of Panama and Costa Rica during the next ten days
    • A
      few showers will occur in Guatemala periodically as well, although rainfall will be light
  • Western
    Colombia and western Venezuela precipitation is expected to occur periodically in coffee, corn, rice and sugarcane production areas during the next ten days,  but no excessive rain is expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was +12.00 and it was expected to drift lower for a while this week
  • New
    Zealand rainfall is expected to continue getting less than usual precipitation this week with temperatures near to above normal

 

Source:
World Weather, inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Jan. 3:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • CFTC
    and ICE commitments of traders reports (delayed from Dec. 31)
  • Honduras
    and Costa Rica coffee exports
  • Global
    cotton balance report from the International Cotton Advisory Committee
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.K, New Zealand, Thailand, Russia, Japan, China, Canada, Australia

Tuesday,
Jan. 4:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • HOLIDAY:
    New Zealand, Russia

Wednesday,
Jan. 5:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Malaysia’s
    Jan. 1-5 palm oil exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Russia

Thursday,
Jan. 6:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Russia

Friday,
Jan. 7:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Russia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range    

Wheat                 
141,816                 versus   200000-450000  range

Corn                     
596,092                 versus   500000-1000000                range

Soybeans           
1,191,739             versus   1400000-1900000             range

 

Soybean
inspections were lowest since late September. China took 748,871 tons of soybeans and only a cargo of corn. Big upward revision to corn for the previous weeks. Soybeans were also upward revised.

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 30, 2021

                           
— METRIC TONS —

—————————————————————————

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      12/30/2021  12/23/2021  12/31/2020    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0       10,010       20,944 

CORN         
596,092     954,488   1,089,440   12,898,120   15,218,768 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          224          461 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0           0          300        2,593 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM        
1,879     175,385     156,802    1,729,267    2,348,260 

SOYBEANS   
1,191,739   1,732,291   1,764,078   30,301,724   39,220,494 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0          432            0 

WHEAT        
141,816     291,207     475,901   12,086,652   15,015,437 

Total      
1,931,526   3,153,371   3,486,221   57,026,729   71,826,957 

—————————————————————————

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

 

 

 

 

Commitment
of Traders

SUPPLEMENTAL     
Non-Comm               Indexes                  Comm

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
282,789      7,775    434,234      6,544   -683,314    -13,494

Soybeans           
80,710     23,464    177,111      1,588   -224,854    -23,704

Soyoil              
1,589      6,717    118,271        425   -124,729    -11,609

CBOT
wheat         -30,498     -2,423    121,414      4,852    -84,223     -2,313

KCBT
wheat          29,651       -116     61,712      4,291    -92,738     -2,437

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
373,345     12,929    260,246     -2,632   -674,323    -11,411

Soybeans           
98,080     25,154    134,757     -2,340   -228,233    -21,576

Soymeal            
61,162     10,611     87,016       -498   -203,326    -10,997

Soyoil             
45,394      6,316     94,119       -567   -132,434    -10,815

CBOT
wheat         -11,773       -766     73,505      3,289    -66,458     -2,030

KCBT
wheat          59,406        599     25,597         11    -79,583     -2,312

MGEX
wheat          12,030     -1,148      1,127        -32    -24,172      3,010

Total
wheat         59,663     -1,315    100,229      3,268   -170,213     -1,332

 

Live
cattle         69,602        850     81,043       -270   -155,363     -1,748

Feeder
cattle        1,679      1,293      3,552         11        763       -579

Lean
hogs           57,720      3,736     57,219       -954   -105,071     -2,149

 

                     
Other             NonReport                  Open

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg   Interest        Chg

Corn               
74,442      1,940    -33,710       -825  1,843,102     41,913

Soybeans           
28,363        110    -32,968     -1,349    767,439    -21,966

Soymeal            
29,360        252     25,788        630    430,303    -22,160

Soyoil            
-11,948        599      4,869      4,468    419,844    -36,371

CBOT
wheat          11,418       -377     -6,692       -116    433,728    -11,061

KCBT
wheat          -6,793      3,439      1,374     -1,738    244,520     -3,024

MGEX
wheat           7,040       -566      3,975     -1,263     77,597     -1,051

Total
wheat         11,665      2,496     -1,343     -3,117    755,845    -15,136

Live
cattle         17,448        246    -12,732        921    361,314     11,315

Feeder
cattle          436        208     -6,431       -933     46,242       -690

Lean
hogs            6,808     -1,084    -16,674        449    262,948      4,718

Source:
CFTC, Reuters and FI

 

Selected
Brazil Commodity December 2021 December 2020

CRUDE
OIL (TNS)              6,150,307                            5,282,467

IRON
ORE (TNS)                31,426,947                          33,120,248

SOYBEANS
(TNS)               2,711,907                            274,082

CORN
(TNS)                        3,438,330                            4,856,570

GREEN
COFFEE(TNS)       207,640                                254,552

SUGAR
(TNS)                      1,943,706                            2,880,667

BEEF
(TNS)                          126,915                                142,524

POULTRY
(TNS)                  383,517                                350,857

PULP
(TNS)                          1,643,000                            1,276,018

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Jan. 3:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • CFTC
    and ICE commitments of traders reports (delayed from Dec. 31)
  • Honduras
    and Costa Rica coffee exports
  • Global
    cotton balance report from the International Cotton Advisory Committee
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.K, New Zealand, Thailand, Russia, Japan, China, Canada, Australia

Tuesday,
Jan. 4:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • HOLIDAY:
    New Zealand, Russia

Wednesday,
Jan. 5:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Malaysia’s
    Jan. 1-5 palm oil exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Russia

Thursday,
Jan. 6:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Russia

Friday,
Jan. 7:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Russia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn ended lower by 4 cents on weakness in US wheat and a sharply higher USD pressured price. The session low in March corn bounced tested the low end of a 4-month trading channel.

·        
Prices were higher early on South American weather concerns and higher energy markets, but that didn’t last long after the day session open. News was light with no notable global export developments were announced over the weekend.
USDA NASS reported the November corn for ethanol use above trade expectations. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of December 30, 2021 were 596,092 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 954,488 tons previous week and compares to 1,089,440 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 175,131
tons, Colombia for 146,717 tons, and Japan for 132,292 tons.

·        
President Biden plans to invest 1 billion USD in funding fir meat processors and ranchers to help boost competition to lower meat prices.

·        
Argentina extended its export suspension for some beef cuts until the end of 2023.

·        
France reported bird flu at a farm of about 13,000 turkeys in Beaufou (western France). 

·        
Bulgaria culled 39,000 chickens after a bird flu outbreak was reported in the southern village of Krivo Pole.

·        
USDA reported the November corn for ethanol use at 469 million bushels, 13 million above an average trade guess, one million above October and 37 million bushels above November 2020.

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Energy
prices rose more than other commodities in 2021

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50718&src=email

 

Updated
1/3/22

March
corn is seen in a $5.60 to $6.20 range (up 10 cents, unchanged)

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans rallied 13.25-16.25 cents in large part to strength of $9.10-$12.20 in soybean meal. Soybean oil ended 8-14 points lower on product spreading and reversal in energy prices. 

·        
South American weather concerns lifted prices higher overnight but a strong rally in the USD capped gains in soybeans. After the close NASS reported the November crush at 190.5 million bushels, 1.3 million bushels below expectations.

·        
Cold US temperatures over the weekend expected to last beyond this week was supporting soybean meal feed demand, and to an extent corn futures before wheat pulled that market lower.

·        
The March crush spread is trading at $170.50 per bushel, close to its contract high.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of December 30, 2021 were 1,191,739 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 1,732,291 tons previous week and compares to 1,764,078 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
748,871 tons, Italy for 141,102 tons, and Egypt for 56,906 tons.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections were lowest since the last week of September and concerning since they are well below average. With Brazil coming online soon, the US has a small window of exports to catch up to the pace to
reach USDA’s 2.050 billion projection. US soybean export commitments are running 23 percent below this time year ago while USDA’s 2.050 billion soybean export projection is 9 percent below 2020-21.

·        
The slow export inspections comes when China’s weekly soybean stocks hit a 32-month low of 3.63 million tons, 2.84 million tons below this time year ago (AgriCensus).

·        
December soybean inspections could end up near 290 million bushels, down from the record 383.8 million exported year ago.  The previous 2015-2019 average was 225 million bushels for December.  We look for USDA to lower US soybean
exports next week by 25 million bushels to 2.025 billion and compares to 2.265 billion year ago. For the crop-year, we are using 2.000 billion bushels, 50 below USDA.

·        
It was reported StoneX estimated Brazil’s soybean production at 134 million tons and corn at 117.5 million tons.  USDA December for Brazil was at 144.0 beans / 118 corn.  USDA Argentina soybeans 49.5 beans / 54.5 corn.

·        
Egypt said they have enough vegetable oil reserves for 6.4 months, largest amount in years.

·        
China’s Heilongjiang Province will increase its soybean planting area by 10 million mu (about 666,667 hectares) in 2022.

·        
China was on holiday, returning Tuesday.

·        
USDA NASS reported the November crush 1.3 million bushels below expectations at 190.5 million and was below 196.9 million during October and compares to 191.0 million year earlier. 6.3 million bushels were crushed per day during
November, about 100,000 less than a month ago and 100,000 below year earlier. The lower than expected crush was surprising as NOPA indicated a month over month increase in the daily crush rate. Despite the lower rate, soybean oil stocks increased 29 million
pounds from October to 2.415 billion pounds, 13 million above trade expectations, even though the soybean oil yield dropped from 11.92 pounds per bushel during October to 11.80 pounds during November.  Soybean meal stocks fell from 411,000 short tons at the
end of October to 399,000 short tons at the end of November.

 

Export
Developments

·        
The CCC seeks 12,000 tons of soybean oil on Jan 5 for Feb 5-15 delivery for the Dominican Republic.

 

 

Updated
1/3/22

Soybeans
– March $13.00-$14.00 (unch, up 15 cents)

Soybean
meal – March $370-$435 (up $15, up $20)

Soybean
oil – March 52.00-60.00 (up 100, up 100)

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat started higher led by higher protein wheat, but prices collapsed after the USD rallied more than 60 points during the day session.

·        
EU wheat basis the March position was 4.75 lower at 274 euros a ton.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of December 30, 2021 were 141,816 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 291,207 tons previous week and compares to 475,901 tons year ago. Major countries included Nigeria for
52,872 tons, Philippines for 40,820 tons, and Mexico for 30,537 tons.

·        
US weather improved over the weekend with Great Plains snowfall coverage expanding across the central and northern Plains. The US southern Great Plains will see limited precipitation and cold temperatures this week. The January
outlook calls for below normal precipitation for the southern Great Plains.

·        
Jordan and Iraq are in for wheat early this week.

·        
China plans to sell 50,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on January 5 to flour millers. The sold an estimated 891,938 tons of wheat from reserves in October.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan’s state grain buyer seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat, optional origins, on Jan. 5, for shipment in 2022 between July 1-15, July 16-31, Aug. 1-15 and Aug. 16-31.

·        
Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on January 3 from the US, Canada and Australia.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Egypt said they have enough sugar reserves for 3 months.

·        
Results awaited:
Bangladesh
seeks 50,000 tons of non-basmati parboiled rice for delivery 50 days from contract award and letter of credit opening.

 

 

Updated
12/9/21

Chicago
March $7.40 to $8.60 range

KC
March $7.55 to $9.00 range

MN
March $9.50‐$11.00

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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