2 PDF’s attached, US corn S&D and Eth. snapshot
Weekly US ethanol production fell 39,000 barrels to 1.005 million barrels. The trade was looking for unchanged at 1.044 million. We see July ethanol production falling 2 percent from June, daily adjusted. The steep decline in US ethanol production over the past four weeks prompted us to downward revise our 2021-22 US corn for ethanol use. Stocks were up 116,000 barrels to 23.606 million barrels. The trade was looking for 23.618 million, so not that far off. Stocks are up a combined 860,000 barrels over the past two weeks. Refinery and blender net input of oxygenates fuel ethanol was 887,000 barrels, down from 904,000 week earlier and lowest since April 15. The ethanol blend rate into finished motor gasoline was 90.3%, up from 89.7% previous week. US gasoline product supplied (glimpse of gasoline demand) decreased 1.35 million barrels to 8.062 million, lowest level since the first week of January 2022. US gasoline stocks increased 5.8 million barrels to 224.9 million.
US balance update. Our US 2021-22 corn for ethanol use was lowered to 5.411 billion bushels from previous 5.445 billion. USDA is at 5.375 after yesterday’s S&D report. For 2022-23, we look for 5.400 billion bushels, 25 above USDA. We lowered corn feed use a touch from the previous month for both crop years. We revised lower our 2022-23 rolling corn crop year average based on a higher projected STU %. See attached.
US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 08-Jul: +3.254M (est -0.154M; prev +8.235M)
– Distillate Inventories: 2.668M (est +1.591M; prev -1.266M)
– Cushing OK Crude Inventories: 0.316M (prev +0.069M)
– Gasoline Inventories: +5.825M (est -0.357M; prev -2.497M)
– Refinery Utilization: 0.4% (est 0.5%; prev -0.5%)
EIA: Renewable identification number prices for ethanol and biomass-based diesel remain high
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53019&src=email
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Allfeed-FI071322.pdf