Daily Market Report – Sep 21, 2022

The tropics are starting to get active, but we will likely skip any major hurricane threats in the month of September. There are currently 5 storms being tracked by NOAA, but only one has any chance of pushing into the GoM.

Storm 98 is currently producing shower and thunderstorm a couple hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. There is potential this storm becomes a tropical depression within the next couple of days. NOAA added these notes to their outlook:
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

The plots below come from the South Florida Water Mgmt District. They currently model show a few paths moving the storm into the GoM.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  98.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.97 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.84 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production was weaker across multiple regions today which is likely the result of pipeline maintenance.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76 Bcf today,  -0.83 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.43 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.

For week ending Sept 16^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +95 Bcf, while our flow model is at +93 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +77 Bcf during the same week.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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