The EIA reported a 49 Bcf injection into storage inventories for the week ending Oct 16, confirming an increasingly tight supply/demand natural gas balance. Current Storage Levels are 3926 Bcf (+345 vs LY, +327 vs. 5Yr)
The storage surplus is quickly fading. The peak YoY surplus of 888 Bcf is no sitting at 345 Bcf.
Yesterday’s report also showed a hefty draw on Salt very early in the heating season. Salt carverns pulled 6 Bcf, which was well above our estimate of 2-3 Bcf. Last year during the same week, Salt injected 21 Bcf and this is usually quite normal. Current salt storage levels sit at 360 Bcf.
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 88.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.48 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.1 Bcf today, +2.09 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.78 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 13.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 8.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.3 Bcf today.
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