Our storage forecast for week ending October 16th is 54 Bcf. This injection would take inventories to 3931 Bcf (+350 vs. LY, +332 vs. 5Yr Avg). This injection would be significantly less than last year’s 92 Bcf for the same week, and the 5Yr average of 75 Bcf. The lower injection rates have been eating into the massive storage surplus of over 800 Bcf we started the summer with (peaked week ending Mar 20th at 888 Bcf). With the 54 Bcf injection, this is how the surplus chart looks:

Storage facilities around the country are getting near capacity, which also means their daily injections are dropping due to storage ratchets. Here is how the storage facilities that report weekly inventories looked – all between 93% and 100% of past recorded levels by mid-October.

Today’s Fundamental’s

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  88.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.35 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.42 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.9 Bcf today,  -2.31 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.76 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 13.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 8.6 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.9 Bcf today.

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