#natgas is trading much higher this morning with the GFS Ensemble adding 25 HDDs to the 15 day outlook. With the latest forecast we now see the first week of December coming in much cooler than normal. Here is the 24hr change in HDDs by day. The GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble are well aligned up until Dec 2nd after which the GFS Ensemble is set much cooler.
For week ending Nov 18th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a -85 Bcf, while our flow model is much lower at -67 draw. We believe our flow model is not capturing the full extent of the withdrawal from Salt as the weather made a very quick switch to bitterly cold; hence we are more aligned with the S/D model for this report. That being said, we do believe there is a risk to a lower draw if line pack was used to serve some of the higher consumption.
Last year we drew -14 Bcf during the same week.
The current Bloomberg survey is –86 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -79 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).
Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.
Week 1 is +40 [no OI] *doesn’t make sense
Week 2 is +36 [no OI] *doesn’t make sense
Week 3 is -93 [no OI] *doesn’t make sense
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (report on Apr 13th) is 1610, OI = 170 [Last week was 1625, OI = 143]
There current end of Summer 2023 (report Nov 9th) is 3644, OI = 0
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 101.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.35 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.98 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 91.2 Bcf today, -7.43 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -16.67 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 30.9 Bcf. Demand is well off the highs of last week.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
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