The current CFSv2 for Dec has been migrating to a cooler pattern for up North, while pushing the above normal temps for the L48 further South. This is starting to set up a weather pattern that could take overall Dec temps closer to normal, rather than the warm pattern that has been portrayed up until now.


Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  101.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.07 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 99.5 Bcf today,  -8.16 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -10.21 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 35.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.2 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.

For week ending Nov 18th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a -85 Bcf, while our flow model is much lower at -67 injection.  We believe our flow model is not capturing the full extent of the withdrawal from Salt as the weather made a very quick switch to bitterly cold; hence we are more aligned with the S/D model for this report.
Last year we drew -14 Bcf during the same week.

NOTE: There will be no report on Thursday & Friday of this week. The next report will be published on Monday Nov 28th.



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