The Dec contract slightly higher this morning with much of that November cold now behind us. Much of the nation experienced temps that were 10 to 20 degree below normal last week, but with the weekend runs we now finish Nov much warmer. Both the GFS and Euro Ensemble had fewer HDDs to close the month out. Here are the changes from Friday’s 12Z.


This latest pattern projections takes the forecast well above normal TDD levels for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period. The current NOAA weather outlook updates directly here:



Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  101.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.58 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.56 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 104.9 Bcf today,  -6.74 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4.02 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 39.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.4 Bcf today. Sabine Pass is now consistently taking 5+ Bcf/d as the facility operates at higher utilization during the cooler weather.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today. Canadian exports remained strong through the weekend, but we expect them to drop as warmer weather comes to the Midwest for the balance of the month.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -83 Bcf today.


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