The overnight weather runs brought some cooler weather back in the forecast. The GFS Ensemble 00z run had an additional 13 HDDs show up in the forecast in the back half of the 15 forecast with a concentration in the Midwest and East regions. The Euro Ensemble did not show the same level of change, but did have 5.8 HDD show up mainly in the 11-15 day. The Euro Ensemble spread the cooler weather across all regions with the Mountain getting most of the cooler weather.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.53 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 80.2 Bcf today, +1.89 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.18 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 22.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.9 Bcf today. The nomination data shows Freeport once again dropping today to under 1 Bcf/d of feedgas, or <50% utilization. The terminal has been struggling to operate consistently since late-summer. According to Criterion, the company will be working in the pretreatment train through at least November 20, 2021.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.1 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +30 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-12-2021.pdf