Daily Market Report – Nov 10, 2022

For week ending Nov 4^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +81 Bcf injection and our Flow model is pointing to +78 Bcf. We are putting more confidence in the Flow model this week. Last year we injected only +15 Bcf during the same week.

The current Bloomberg survey is +80 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +81 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +81 [no OI]

Week 2 is -48 [1 OI]

Week 3 is -34 [no OI]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3585, OI = 83. [Last week was 3585, OI = 83]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1692, OI = 56 [Last week was 1678, OI = 134]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.43 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.57 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.3 Bcf today,  -3.8 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.3 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 17.9 Bcf. Nicole made landfall in Florida last night and so the impact has not been big. There are currently 76k customers without power according to poweroutage.us.

Click here to get all the Hurricane Details + the EIA infrastructure map: http://www.analytix.ai/hurricanes.html

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.

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