Production continues to show strength this week with levels over the weekend reaching almost 97 Bcf/d. That last time we saw these levels was Q4 2019. The peak daily production level we have on record is for Nov 29, 2019 when production reached 97.7 Bcf/d. We should note that the Gulf of Mexico offshore production still has not reached is full potential. It is currently producing slight below 2 Bcf/d, but Shell is looking to restore of volumes at the Ursa & Mars platforms soon and this could help volumes reach new record levels.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.64 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.16 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We have seen revisions in evening cycle nomination data; hence its likely today’s production level gets restated higher.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.2 Bcf today, -0.9 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -10.08 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 19.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. Freeport has still not reached its full potential of operation. It is currently operating at 66% of peak observed levels.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +5 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-09-2021.pdf