Daily Market Report – May 20, 2022

The EIA reported a +89 Bcf injection for the week ending May 6th, which came in right in the expected range. That being said, we dealt funny EIA math once again this week. The SC components were +10 Salt and +24 NonSalt yet the total for the region was +32 only. So this week’s number although reported as +89, could very well be +87 Bcf. This storage report takes the total level to 1732 Bcf, which is 358 Bcf less than last year at this time and 310 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,042 Bcf.

Once again (after a brief pause in the report for week ending May 6th), we estimate this +89Bcf injection was loose to last summer (wx adjusted). We compare this report to Q2 2021, we see it 1.8 Bcf/d loose YoY wx adjusted.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.67 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.86 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production looks to be starting to resume in Midcon and SC.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 68.6 Bcf today,  -1.05 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.2 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 9.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.3 Bcf today. All LNG facilities look to be done with their maintenance, and Calcasieu Pass is hitting record levels of deliveries.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +91 Bcf today. This is a similar level to this last report, but quite a change in the fundamentals WoW. For my early view I show production off by 1.0 Bcf/d WoW, and overall consumption off by a similar amount.

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