Daily Market Report – May 05, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +72 Bcf (S/D +72 and Flow +72). There is the possibility of a higher injection in the East this week, in the case that last week’s 0 Bcf estimate for the East was understated. We could see some make up in this week’s number. Based on our flow model, we expect the East to show an injection of 16 Bcf for last week, but there is the possibility of a this coming in higher.

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +69 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +70 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +75 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +87

Week 3 is +97

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3450. [Last week was 3500]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1672. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.31 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.67 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production continues to remain lower in the SC and Northeast.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.5 Bcf today,  -2.47 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.43 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 14.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.3 Bcf today.    

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.

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