The EIA reported a -124 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Mar 4th, which came higher than market estimates. For the reported period, the weather shifted warmer across much of the country except for large portions of the Mountain and South Central. This led to looser daily balances as overall consumption fell (-5.0 Bcf/d WoW). Both Rescomm and Industrial was much lower, but Power gen was slightly higher. The reason being a big drop in wind generation. After a few consecutive weeks where wind generation was well above normal, we saw a steep decline in wind levels for this storage reporting period. Wind generation levels were 29% below normal.
This past week’s report continues to point to the tight market conditions. We estimate this report was ~7 Bcf/d tight vs LY (wx adjusted).
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 92.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.46 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The majority of today’s production drop comes from the South Central where temps overnight dropped to the mid-20s. The pain was felt across almost every basin.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 94.8 Bcf today, -4.42 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 37.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -66 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Mar-11-2022.pdf