L48 48 temperatures moved warmer across the forecast, with all the gains across the 6-10 and 11-15 day ranges. The GFS Ensemble gained a total of 5.5 CDDs vs 24hrs ago, while the Euro Ensemble gained 9.5 CDDs. With the latest move, we now see good alignment between the two major models over the next 10 days.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.13 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.89 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The drop comes from the Northeast and the SC. The reported pipeline explosion in DeSoto Parish, Louisiana yesterday does not look to be the reason for the drop in production today. The drop from the SC comes from multiple interstate pipeline; hence the drop is not dedicated to this isolated event. There is not much detail available on the explosion, but it appears to have occurred on an gathering line as there looks to be a well site in the background of the image that floated around yesterday. When we tried to look up the location on google maps, we could clearly see multiple well sites in the vicinity. As of late yesterday, it was reported that residents in the area were allowed to return home and there were no injuries reported.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.9 Bcf today, -2.29 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.95 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 37.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today. Deliveries at Calcasieu Pass and Sabine trended higher this morning.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.
For week ending June 24th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a +78 Bcf injection while our flow model is higher with a +79 Bcf. Below is the regional break down of the flow based model + the week storage activity at the 4 facilities that report on a weekly basis.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-June-28-2022.pdf