Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble trended warmer overnight. The additional PWCDDs were particularly in the 6-10 day window. The GFS Ensemble has been showing warmer temps than observed for the past few week. The Euro Ensemble did show more warming overnight specifically in Midwest.




Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  90.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.61 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production was revised higher for the weekend. Nomination issues  from REX (maintenance on their info posting website) over the weekend looks to have thrown off the Northeast calculation. It looks to be corrected today.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.8 Bcf today,  +0.27 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 40.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.1 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +44 Bcf today.

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