Here is the latest change in the two major models since Friday’s 12z run. The GFS Ensemble was net flat for balance of the month, while the Euro Ensemble gained a model 3 CDDs.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 97.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.79 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Texas production was one of the main reasons for the rise this past weekend, with overall South Central volumes rising over 38 Bcf/d. Northeast volumes were also on the rise with total production from the region almost reaching 35 Bcf/d over the weekend.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 81.3 Bcf today, +0.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.06 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. Overall volumes for LNG remain strong despite the loss of Freeport. Calcasieu Pass peaked last week at 1.55 Bcf/d in deliveries, and weekend deliveries stayed close to those levels.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +44 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-July-18-2022.pdf