The EIA reported a +82 Bcf injection for the week ending June 24th, which came in much higher than the market consensus once again. That’s now two extremely bearish EIA storage prints in a row, which help verify the looseness in the market. This storage report takes the total level to 2251 Bcf, which is 296 Bcf less than last year at this time and 322 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,573 Bcf. Overall, we estimate this +82 Bcf injection is +2.7 Bcf/d loose vs last summer (wx adjusted).
The combination of the loose storage report and a bearish notice published by the PHMSA (around 11am EST) in regards to the length of the Freeport outage helped trigger a sell-off like no other. The drama did not end. Late in the day (around 430 EST – no exact timestamp on the PR), Freeport put out their own press release which suggested a partial restart in early Oct. With that the market bounced higher after hours.
Link: http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9746&intAcc_ID=77
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.03 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.82 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.1 Bcf today, -0.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.49 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 40.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today. Sabine Pass jumped from 3.77 Bcf/d just a few days ago to 4.63 Bcf/d today. Additionally, Calcasieu Pass is back up to 1.41 Bcf/d according to the nominations for today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +68 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-July-01-2022.pdf