Natgas prices shift lower on open yesterday with the 15D forecast continuing to show warm in the back-end of Jan. The Northeast specifically showed no real threat of cooler temps. The Euro Ensemble is quite bearish with the forecast well below the 10Y normal up until Jan 24th.
The chart below shows the change in the current forecast to Friday’s 12z. The GFS Ensemble lost 14 HDDs, while the Euro Ensemble lost 13 HDDs.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 105.4 Bcf today, -0.74 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.64 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 45.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Weekend-Report-Jan-11-2021.pdf