Daily Market Report – Dec 16, 2021

For today’s storage report our final projection is -91 Bcf (S/D model at -91, Flow model at -88).

The current Bloomberg survey is -88 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -89 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -90 [today’s report]

Week 2 is -51

Week 3 is -125

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1610. [Last week was 1615]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3600. [Last week was 3600]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.59 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 84.7 Bcf today,  -1.3 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 26.7 Bcf. The next few days (including today) are much warmer-than-normal and therefore we should see consumption remain low. That being said, starting next week we see HDD pick up back to normal levels. Today’s 00z forecast added more HDDs beyond day 5 in the Midwest and East regions.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12 Bcf today. The drop in feedgas levels to Sabine looked to be related to fog that last few days. Today, Sabine is showing feedgas levels back at 4.6 Bcf/d, which indicates that all 6 trains are fully functional.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.8 Bcf today.

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