The first half of December now looks quite bearish with the Euro Ensemble following in the GFS Ensembles move from yesterday. The Euro lost nearly 18 HDDs relative to 24 hours ago, with most of the change in the 11-15 day period. As seen in the chart below, the current forecast is trending warmer than the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.74 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Nomination data suggests production has dropped significantly since late last week. We anticipate some revisions higher this week. We believe that part of the drop is related to the 1st of month nomination noise.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 87.3 Bcf today, -6.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.83 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 29.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today. Sabine pulled off the pedal this week. This could be related to T6 testing.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -58 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-01-2021.pdf