Yesterday, Natural gas price exploded higher after remaining under $2/MMBtu since early May. The combination of warmer weather past the 1-5 days period (indicating that August could follow July’s heat trajectory), LNG jumping near 4 Bcf/d, and production dropping added to yesterday’s rally.

 

Prompt month continues to rise this morning with price currently at 2.15. A close above 2.16 would set the next resistance at the 2.25 level.

 

 

Isaias slammed into the East Coast overnight, causing rapid flooding, and the threat of New York’s strongest winds since Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Isaias sustained winds of 85 mph and became a Category 1 hurricane before reaching land late last night near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina. It has been downgraded to a tropical storm this morning, but the heavy rains and flooding are  expected from North Carolina all the way to the Canada border over the next couple of days.

 

time of arrival graphic

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/215355.shtml?inundation

 

 

Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  84.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.21 Bcf/d to the 7D average.   

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.9 Bcf today,  -2.78 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.09 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 40.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 4 Bcf today

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today.   

Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM:
@het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960

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