Weather runs were bearish overall from Friday’s 12Z run. Below is the change from Friday’s 12z which shows both models making the same directional move.
Here is a look the latest outlook, which shows the overall forecast hovering very close to the 10Y normal past this week.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.43 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.75 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production out of the Bakken has been volatile this past week. We are uncertain if the lower production is due to freeze-offs (as the the region received a good amount of snow over the last week) or pipeline maintenance. Bakken production is estimated to be 0.9 Bcf/d which is less than half of normal levels. Here is a view of this week which shows cool temps continuing in the Bakken region.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 71.6 Bcf today, +3.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 15.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.2 Bcf today. LNG deliveries continue to remain low with Freeport maintenance of train 1. This maintenance was originally to be completed last week, but now the estimated completion data is 4/27.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +37 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Apr-25-2022.pdf