Daily Market Report – Apr 21, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +45 Bcf (S/D +45, Flow +53).

The current Bloomberg survey is +16 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +20 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +48 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +45

Week 3 is +80

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3500. [Last week was 3500]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1672. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.5 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.64 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production dropped for two consecutive days in the South Central and NE for a total of 1.8 Bcf/d. This latest drop could be related to pipeline related maintenance.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.3 Bcf today,  -6.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.03 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 18.2 Bcf. Wind continues to perform a strong levels after the weekend which is helping keep burns lower. We are also seeing Nuke recover after a deep maintenance/refueling this quarter.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.4 Bcf today. Freeport continues to have volatile deliveries as they wrap up T1 maintenance. Todays nomination is 1.23 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.

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