Correction: FI Morning Grain Comments 09/04/20

Sep 4, 2020







PDF
attached corrects prices on page one

 

Morning. 

 

USDA
reported 318,000 tons of soybeans sold to China and 175,000 tons of soybean meal sold to the Philippines.  Rumors also circulated of Brazilian buying of US beans although, this is doubtful.  Soybeans and meal are seeing follow through buying while soybean
oil light profit taking.  The typhoon in China has flooded the fields and the northeastern areas will receive additional rain where it is excessively wet.  Malaysian palm futures were 56MYR lower and cash down $14.00/ton.  CBOT corn is rebounding higher on
talk Brazil may buy corn from the US.  Wheat was mostly higher.  We look for corn and soybean conditions to stabilize but on Tuesday expect the combined good and excellent ratings to decline by one point each.  103 soybean meal receipts were cancelled, most
of them by Bunge.  The Philippines bought 110,000 tons of wheat.  Ethiopia seeks 80,000 tons of wheat and SK seeks 114k tons of rice.  The US will see wetter conditions for the Sunday/Monday period where rains in Iowa and Illinois occur, although this is too
late.  US markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

MORNING
WEATHER MODEL COMMENTS

 

NORTH
AMERICA

  • Slightly
    less threatening cold was noted for the upper Midwest during mid-week next week, although temperatures will still slip into the 30s Fahrenheit
    • Frost
      and a couple of light freezes cannot be ruled out especially with the event still so far out in time
  • Damaging
    freezes are expected in Montana and Wyoming’s dry bean and sugarbeet areas and in a few other late season crop areas
  • Freezes
    will be most significant from Montana to Manitoba Tuesday with frost and light freezes expected from parts of Nebraska to northwestern and west-central Minnesota and the Dakotas Wednesday morning
  • Today’s
    GFS model run is wetter for Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, southern Wisconsin and neighboring areas relative to that of Thursday morning, although the same area is advertised to be impacted by rain
    • Amounts
      may be a little overdone, but it will rain and soil moisture improvements in some of the drier areas will result
  • Rain
    and some wet snow is still expected to come out of Wyoming into eastern Colorado and a few northwestern Kansas locations Monday into Tuesday morning; rain also falls across other central Plains crop areas
    • The
      moisture for hard red winter wheat areas will be welcome for early planting that is getting under way
  • GFS
    model was wetter in Saskatchewan and a part of Manitoba for Sep 11-13
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • GFS
    suggested rain in the southwestern and central U.S. Plains Sep 14-16
    • Some
      of this may be overdone
  • GFS
    reduced rainfall in the heart of the Midwest while increasing it in the southeastern states Sep. 14-16
    • Both
      changes may  have been a little overdone, but trends may have been correct
  • GFS
    reduced rain from the southern Plains through the Delta to the central Midwest for Sep. 17-18
    • This
      change was needed

 

Today’s
forecast model runs are still keeping the general theme on the cold similar to that of Thursday with the west-central and northwestern Plains into eastern Canada’s Prairies most vulnerable frost and freezes. The heart of the Midwest will see abundant rainfall
and that will help ease dryness in some areas and help hold temperatures up while the unusually cold airmass moderates. The second week of the outlook in key Midwestern locations is a little drier biased and warmer weather will return.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • Some
    rain is expected Saturday in La Pampa with a little follow up precipitation during the middle to latter part of next week from La Pampa into western Buenos Aires
  • Otherwise
    the model outlook for Argentina has not changed much today relative to that of Thursday; rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days especially in the drier areas of western and northern Argentina

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    significant changes were noted for the coming ten days
    • France
      and central Germany do not get an abundance of moisture and will remain in need of improved precipitation
  • There
    is some potential for rain in western Europe’s drier areas after Sep. 14

 

Rain
is still expected from Italy into a part of Poland periodically in the coming week to ten days. Rain will also fall in northern parts of the U.K. and in the Baltic Sea region. Net drying occurs in France, Spain, central Germany and the middle and lower Danube
River Basin. Some showers will occur infrequently in central and eastern Ukraine into Krasnodar while much of Russia’s Southern region northeast of Krasnodar will be mostly dry along with western Kazakhstan

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    significant changes were noted during the coming ten days today
    • Rain
      is still advertised to be most frequent in the easternmost New Lands where some concern over unharvest small grain and sunseed quality is expected
    • Most
      of the key spring wheat and sunseed areas will experience a good environment for crop maturation and harvesting