Correction: FI Morning Grain Comments 09/04/20

PDF
attached corrects prices on page one

 

Morning. 

 

USDA
reported 318,000 tons of soybeans sold to China and 175,000 tons of soybean meal sold to the Philippines.  Rumors also circulated of Brazilian buying of US beans although, this is doubtful.  Soybeans and meal are seeing follow through buying while soybean
oil light profit taking.  The typhoon in China has flooded the fields and the northeastern areas will receive additional rain where it is excessively wet.  Malaysian palm futures were 56MYR lower and cash down $14.00/ton.  CBOT corn is rebounding higher on
talk Brazil may buy corn from the US.  Wheat was mostly higher.  We look for corn and soybean conditions to stabilize but on Tuesday expect the combined good and excellent ratings to decline by one point each.  103 soybean meal receipts were cancelled, most
of them by Bunge.  The Philippines bought 110,000 tons of wheat.  Ethiopia seeks 80,000 tons of wheat and SK seeks 114k tons of rice.  The US will see wetter conditions for the Sunday/Monday period where rains in Iowa and Illinois occur, although this is too
late.  US markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

MORNING
WEATHER MODEL COMMENTS

 

NORTH
AMERICA

• Slightly
  less threatening cold was noted for the upper Midwest during mid-week next week, although temperatures will still slip into the 30s Fahrenheit
• Frost
  and a couple of light freezes cannot be ruled out especially with the event still so far out in time
• Damaging
  freezes are expected in Montana and Wyoming’s dry bean and sugarbeet areas and in a few other late season crop areas
• Freezes
  will be most significant from Montana to Manitoba Tuesday with frost and light freezes expected from parts of Nebraska to northwestern and west-central Minnesota and the Dakotas Wednesday morning
• Today’s
  GFS model run is wetter for Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, southern Wisconsin and neighboring areas relative to that of Thursday morning, although the same area is advertised to be impacted by rain
• Amounts
  may be a little overdone, but it will rain and soil moisture improvements in some of the drier areas will result
• Rain
  and some wet snow is still expected to come out of Wyoming into eastern Colorado and a few northwestern Kansas locations Monday into Tuesday morning; rain also falls across other central Plains crop areas
• The
  moisture for hard red winter wheat areas will be welcome for early planting that is getting under way
• GFS
  model was wetter in Saskatchewan and a part of Manitoba for Sep 11-13
• Some
  of this increase was overdone
• GFS
  suggested rain in the southwestern and central U.S. Plains Sep 14-16
• Some
  of this may be overdone
• GFS
  reduced rainfall in the heart of the Midwest while increasing it in the southeastern states Sep. 14-16
• Both
  changes may  have been a little overdone, but trends may have been correct
• GFS
  reduced rain from the southern Plains through the Delta to the central Midwest for Sep. 17-18
• This
  change was needed

 

Today’s
forecast model runs are still keeping the general theme on the cold similar to that of Thursday with the west-central and northwestern Plains into eastern Canada’s Prairies most vulnerable frost and freezes. The heart of the Midwest will see abundant rainfall
and that will help ease dryness in some areas and help hold temperatures up while the unusually cold airmass moderates. The second week of the outlook in key Midwestern locations is a little drier biased and warmer weather will return.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

• Some
  rain is expected Saturday in La Pampa with a little follow up precipitation during the middle to latter part of next week from La Pampa into western Buenos Aires
• Otherwise
  the model outlook for Argentina has not changed much today relative to that of Thursday; rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days especially in the drier areas of western and northern Argentina

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

• No
  significant changes were noted for the coming ten days
• France
  and central Germany do not get an abundance of moisture and will remain in need of improved precipitation
• There
  is some potential for rain in western Europe’s drier areas after Sep. 14

 

Rain
is still expected from Italy into a part of Poland periodically in the coming week to ten days. Rain will also fall in northern parts of the U.K. and in the Baltic Sea region. Net drying occurs in France, Spain, central Germany and the middle and lower Danube
River Basin. Some showers will occur infrequently in central and eastern Ukraine into Krasnodar while much of Russia’s Southern region northeast of Krasnodar will be mostly dry along with western Kazakhstan

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

• No
  significant changes were noted during the coming ten days today
• Rain
  is still advertised to be most frequent in the easternmost New Lands where some concern over unharvest small grain and sunseed quality is expected
• Most
  of the key spring wheat and sunseed areas will experience a good environment for crop maturation and harvesting

 

CHINA

• Not
  much change in the models today over the next week to ten days
• Northeastern
  China will get excessive another round of excessive rain from the remnants of Typhoon Haishen that will move through the Korean Peninsula late this weekend into early next week before reaching northeastern China early next week as well
• Rainfall
  to more than 8.00 inches fell in northeastern China Thursday from remnants of Typhoon Maysak and 4.00 to 8.00 inches and local totals to 10.00 inches will accompany Haishen
  
• Jilin
  and Heilongjiang will be most impacted
• Flooding
  remains a serious problem in parts of northeastern China
• East-central
  China will experience a favorable drying environment over the coming week to ten days
  
• Southeastern
  China will experience periods of rain and will stay wet especially in the southwest

 

INDIA

• No
  changes overnight
• Northern
  India will be rainy through the weekend and then trend drier next week
• Some
  concern over cotton quality will remain in the north through the weekend and then conditions will improve
• Drier
  weather is expected in northern India next week
• Gujarat,
  western Rajasthan and central and southern Pakistan are already drying out will continue doing so over the coming week
  
• Some
  increase in rainfall may impact southern and eastern Gujarat and far southern Rajasthan during the Sep. 12-18 period
• India’s
  wettest weather is expected in the central, south and eastern parts of the nation over the next ten days

 

AUSTRALIA

• Rain
  was suggested to increase Wednesday into Thursday of next week in southeastern Queensland and New South Wales
• The
  increase may verify, although it is not a general soaking
• Any
  rain would be welcome to support reproducing winter crops
• Not
  much other change was noted in Australia through the coming week to ten days
• Rain
  continues mostly in the far south parts of the nation’s crop areas over the next two weeks
  

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

 

 

 

Total
stocks of principal field crops at July 31

                        
July 2018  July 2019  July 2020        July 2018 to July 2019/

                                                     
    July 2019 to July 2020

                             
thousands of   tonnes                  % change

Total  
wheat             6732       5891       5028              -12.5          -14.6

Durum
wheat               1476       1792        660               21.4          -63.2

Wheat 
excluding durum    5256       4099       4368              -22              6.6

Barley                   
1244        863        957              -30.6           10.9

Canola                   
2506       4175       2741               66.6          -34.3

Dry
field peas             648        312        233              -51.9          -25.3

Flaxseed                  
127         60         64              -52.8            6.7

Lentils                   
873        716         61              -18            -91.5

Oats                      
778        397        426              -49              7.3

Rye                       
124         49         40              -60.5          -18.4

Source:
StatsCan, Reuters, and FI

 

Macros

·        
US Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Aug: 1371K (est 1350K; prevR K; prevR 1734K; prev 1763K)

·        
US Unemployment Rate Aug: 8.4% (est 9.8%; prev 10.2%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Aug: 0.4% (est 0.0%; prevR 0.1%; prev 0.2%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Aug: 4.7% (est 4.5%; prevR 4.7%; prev 4.8%)

·        
US Change In Private Payrolls Aug: 1027K (est 1325K; prevR 1481K; prev 1462K)

·        
US Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Aug: 29K (est 65K; prevR 41K; prev 26K)

·        
Canadian Net Change In Employment Aug: 245.8K (est 250K; prev 418.5K)

·        
Canadian Unemployment Rate Aug: 10.2% (est 10.2%; prev 10.9%)

·        
Canadian Full Time Employment Change Aug: 205.8K (prev 73.2K)

·        
Canadian Part Time Employment Change Aug: 40.0K (prev 345.3K)

 

Corn.

• CBOT
  corn is rebounding higher on talk Brazil may buy corn from the US and expected decline in US crop ratings when updated Tuesday.  Monday is a US holiday. 
  
• We
  look for corn and soybean conditions to stabilize but on Tuesday expect the combined good and excellent ratings to decline by one point each. 
  
• French
  corn crop conditions declined slightly in the week to Aug. 31, to 61% from 62% previous week. This is the same compared to a year ago. 
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

• None
  reported. 

 

Soybean
complex.

• CBOT
  November soybeans are higher on Chinese buying.  Soybean meal is getting a lift after the Philippines bought US meal.  Soybean oil is on the defensive from product spreading and sharply lower Asian palm oil.  USDA reported 318,000 tons of soybeans sold to
  China and 175,000 tons of soybean meal sold to the Philippines.  Rumors also circulated of Brazilian buying of US beans although, this is doubtful. 
  
• The
  typhoon in China has flooded the fields and the northeastern areas will receive additional rain where it is excessively wet. 
  
• We
  look for corn and soybean conditions to stabilize but on Tuesday expect the combined good and excellent ratings to decline by one point each. 
  
• 103
  CBOT soybean meal receipts were cancelled, most of them by Bunge. 
• The
  US will see wetter conditions for the Sunday/Monday period where rains in Iowa and Illinois occur, although this is too late. 
  
• US
  markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. 
• Malaysian
  palm oil was sharply higher on Thursday by 80 points basis November contract. 
  
• We
  heard China’s Cofco bought at least 10 cargos of US soybeans for December and January shipment out of the Gulf and PNW. 
  
• USDA
  Attaché: Brazil Biofuels Annual
• https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Biofuels%20Annual_Sao%20Paulo%20ATO_Brazil_08-03-2020
  
• Celeres
  estimated the 2020-21 soybean crop at 131.4 million tons, up from 130.8 million previously.  They left their corn crop unchanged at 30 million tons. 
  

• Offshore
  values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 20 higher (12 higher for the week to date) and meal $1.10
  lower ($1.20 lower for the week). 
• Rotterdam
  soybean oil values were about 3.00 euros lower, rapeseed oil 3 higher in the benchmark positions, and Rotterdam meal mostly 2-4 euros higher from this time yesterday morning. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 80 cents per bushel (81  previous) and compares to 90 cents a week ago and 72 cents around this time last year.
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil traded lower after making a 7-month high. 

• A
  Reuters poll calls for Malaysia’s palm oil end of August stocks to increase 5.4 percent from the previous month to 1.79 million tons.  Production is expected increase 2% to 1.84 million tons.  The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release the official data on
  Sept. 10.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour system, private exporters sold 318,000 tons of soybeans to China and 175,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines.   
  

 

Wheat

• Wheat
  was trading mostly higher this morning with some reversal in MN/KC and MN/Chicago wheat spreading.  We didn’t see any evidence China bought US wheat this week but cannot rule out future purchases. 
  
• Canadian
  July wheat stocks fell 15 percent from a year ago to 5.0 million tons.  Supportive, in our opinion. 
  
• The
  Philippines bought 110,000 tons of wheat and Ethiopia seeks 80,000 tons of wheat. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat was up 0.50 at 188.50 euros. 
• Bulgaria harvested 4.63
  million tons of wheat this year from 1,176,048 hectares.  This compares to 6.16 million tons in 2019.
• Ukraine’s
  2019-20 grain exports for 2019-20 (July-June) were revised higher to 57.2 million tons from 56.5 million tons by the economy ministry.  Earlier this week the ministry made a downward revision to its forecast for the country’s grain crop in 2020 to 68 million
  tons from 70 million tons because of drought.  (Reuters)
• The
  Argentina Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported recent rain over the dry areas of Argentina’s wheat area brought relief to the crop, but some damage will be irreversible.  They estimated the wheat area at 6.5 million hectares, down from earlier estimates of
  around 6.8 million. 

 

Export
Developments.

• Reuters
  reported the Philippines bought about 110,000 tons of animal feed in two consignments at around $255 a ton c&f for November and December shipment. 
  
• Ethiopia
  seeks about 80,000 tons of milling wheat on Sept. 30.
• Japan
  seeks 100,000 tons of barley and 80,000 tons of feed wheat pm September 9 for arrival by end of Feb. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 113,999 tons of rice on Sep 16 for arrival in South Korea between Jan. 31, 2021, and June 30, 2021.

·        
Syria is in for 39,400 tons of white rice on September 30. 

 

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

 

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