From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2018 10:31:44 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI US Ethanol Snapshot 12/12/18

PDF attached


Ethanol update

  • The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed negative for US corn futures and neutral for US ethanol futures. 
  • Weekly US ethanol production decreased 23,000 barrels per day to 1.046 million barrels per day (bbl) and stocks decreased 140,000 barrels to 22.890 million.

·         A Bloomberg poll called for weekly US ethanol production to decline 12,000 barrels from the previous week and stocks to increase 193,000 barrels.

  • US ethanol production of 1.046 million barrels per day is about 3.9% lower from about the same time a year ago and 0.4% above 4-weeks ago.
  • Padd2 production was 963,000 barrels, down 26,000 from a week earlier. Padd3 was up 2,000.
  • Early September 2018 to date US ethanol production is running 0.1% below the same period a year ago. At this time last year ethanol production was advancing 4.1% above the Sep-Dec 8, 2017 period.  This season to date decline in ethanol production is the first time we have seen this happen during the OND quarter in years.
  • There were no ethanol imports reported this week.
  • Ethanol stocks of 22.890 million barrels are up 0.4% from four weeks ago and up 2.3% from a year ago.
  • Days of inventory of 22.0.7 compares to 21.7 a month ago and 20.7 during comparable period a year ago.
  • Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were down 2.09 million barrels to 228.34 million barrels.
  • The net blender input of fuel ethanol was up 14,000 from the previous week at 910,000 bpd, below its 4-week average of 919,000 bpd.
  • Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, increased 160,000 to 9.018 million barrels, or 88.4 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, down from 89.5 percent for the previous week.
  • Our 2018-19 crop-year corn for ethanol usage is 5.700 billion bushels, 50 million below our November projection and 100 million above USDA’s current estimate of 5.600 (recently lowered 50 million bushels in the December 11 update) and compares to 5.605 billion for 2017-18.
  • We look for the 2018-19 September – August weekly ethanol production to average 1.060 million barrels. The average for the first twelve weeks of the year is 1.042 million barrels.





Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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