From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, November 28, 2018 10:30:08 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI US Ethanol Snapshot 11/28/18

PDF attached


Ethanol update

  • The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed slightly supportive for US corn futures and slightly bearish for US ethanol futures. 
  • Weekly US ethanol production increased 6,000 barrels per day to 1.048 million barrels per day (bbl) and stocks increased 139,000 barrels to 22.930 million.

·         A Bloomberg poll called for weekly ethanol production to decrease 10,000 barrels per day from the previous week and stocks to decrease 13,000 barrels.

  • US ethanol production of 1.048 million barrels per day is about 1.7% lower from about the same time a year ago and 1.0% below 4-weeks ago.
  • Padd2 production was 964,000 barrels, up 2,000 from a week earlier. Padd3 was up 4,000.
  • Early September 2018 to date US ethanol production is running 0.5% above the same period a year ago. At this time last year ethanol production was advancing 3.7% above the Sep-Nov 2016 period.
  • There were no ethanol imports reported this week.
  • Ethanol stocks of 22.930 million barrels are down 1.0% from four weeks ago and up 4% from a year ago.
  • Days of inventory of 21.7 compares to 22.6 a month ago and 20.5 during comparable period a year ago.
  • Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were down 0.764 million barrels to 224.55 million barrels.
  • The net blender input of fuel ethanol was down 4,000 from the previous week at 924,000 bpd, below its 4-week average of 927000 bpd.
  • Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, decreased 33,000 to 9.169 million barrels, or 88.5 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, down from 90.7 percent for the previous week.
  • Our 2018-19 crop-year corn for ethanol usage is 5.750 billion bushels, 100 million above USDA’s current estimate of 5.650 and compares to 5.605 billion for 2017-18.
  • We look for the 2018-19 September – August weekly ethanol production to average 1.069 million barrels. The average for the first twelve weeks of the year is 1.049 million barrels.






Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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