From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2018 11:33:17 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI US Ethanol Snapshot 09/26/18
- The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed neutral for US corn futures and slightly bullish for US ethanol futures.
- Production decreased 15,000 barrels per day to 1.036 million barrels per day (bbl) and stocks decreased 117,000 to 22.629 million.
- A Bloomberg poll called for US ethanol production to decrease 24,000 million/day and stocks to decrease 46,000 barrels.
- US ethanol production of 1.036 million barrels per day is about 4.0% higher from about the same time a year ago but 3.2% below 4-weeks ago.
- Padd2 production was 949,000 barrels, down 9,000 from a week earlier.
- Early September 2018 to date US ethanol production is running 1% above the same period a year ago.
- There were no imports reported this week.
- Ethanol stocks of 22.629 million barrels are down 1.9% from four weeks ago and up 9.1% from a year ago.
- Ethanol stocks are lowest since July 27, 2018.
- Days of inventory of 22.0 compared to 21.7 a month ago and 21.2 during comparable period a year ago.
- Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were up 1.53 million barrels to 235.68 million barrels.
- The net blender input of fuel ethanol was down 27,000 from the previous week at 901,000 bpd, below its 4-week average of 935,000 bpd.
- Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, decreased 208,000 to 8.957 million barrels, or 90.9 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, up from down from 91.6 percent for the previous week.
- Our 2018-19 crop-year corn for ethanol usage is 5.725 billion bushels, 75 million above USDA’s current estimate of 5.650 and compares to our working projection of 5.604 billion for 2016-17 (USDA 5.600).
- We look for the 2018-19 September – August weekly ethanol production to average 1.064 million barrels. The average for the first three weeks of the year is 1.036 million barrels.
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL 60603
ICE IM: treilly1
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