From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2020 10:18:29 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI US Ethanol Snapshot 04/01/20

PDF attached


·         US ethanol production declined a huge 165,000 barrels to 840,000, versus a Bloomberg poll looking for a 75,000-barrel decrease.  This is the lowest weekly level since September 20, 2013.  Last time production dipped below 900,000 was 5/1/2015.  The current 840,000 barrels is down just over 22 percent compared with the week ending 2/28/20. 

·         Ethanol stocks rocketed higher by 1.577 million barrels to a record 25.717 million barrels. 

·         The corn for ethanol demand destruction was worse than what we thought.  At 840,000 barrels, implied corn use (2.8) is around 4.60 billion bushels, down from 5.908 billion at the end of February.  We will likely lower our corn for ethanol use for the remainder of the crop-year by 350+ million bushels, and lower next year by 50 to 100 million. 



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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