From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2019 8:12:49 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 05/01/19

PDF attached



         6-10 day was wetter for the southern Midwest.

         Light to heavy rain will continue to impact the US Midwest through second half of May.  The first week will be wetter than that of the second week. Wettest areas will be from eastern KS to southern WI, central OK and central TX.  Southeastern states will see best fieldwork.

         China’s Yangtze River Basin needs rain. Conditions improved for North China Plains.

         Argentina will see favorable conditions through May 10. Brazil is favorable with mix of rain & sunshine. 

         Australia will see rain from South Australia through NSW, parts of Queensland and Victoria. W.A. C dry.

         EU: pockets of dryness will add crop stress, but cooler temperatures may slow damage, is any.

         Western CIS will see mild to warm temps with on and off rain events.

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI


Source: World Weather Inc. and FI


Source: World Weather Inc. and FI


Bloomberg Ag Calendar


  • African swine fever forum in Ottawa. Authorities and industry leaders discuss the threat of ASF to the Americas
  • U.S. agricultural prices for March
  • Cargo surveyors AmSpec, Intertek and SGS release their respective data on Malaysia’s April palm oil exports
  • Polish statistics office to issue assessment of 2019 winter crops
  • Holiday in Japan


  • Labor Day holiday in many parts of world, including China, Russia, France, India, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand. Japan also on holiday
  • EIA weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
  • USDA soybean crush and corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Food & Ag symposium in Omaha, Nebraska, day 1


  • USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
  • Food & Ag symposium in Omaha, Nebraska, day 2
  • Brazil soybean, coffee, sugar and corn exports for April, 2:20pm
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
  • Holiday in Japan, China


  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on French crop conditions
  • ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1pm (~6pm London)
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • Holiday in Japan, China

Source: Bloomberg and FI






         US ADP Employment Change Apr: 275K (exp 180K; prev 129K)

         USD 32 points lower (7:37 am CT)

         US DOW +95

         Crude -$.41

         Gold -$4.10



         US corn futures are higher on ongoing US corn planting delays.  

         CBOT corn prices averaged about 3.58 in April, down from 3.71 in February.

         Baltic Dry Index was up 20 points to 1,031, a two percent increase.

         February US ethanol production was a little higher than our estimate.  At 28.576 million barrels, it below 31.601 for January and 29.519 million for February 2018.  We are using 5.550 billion bushels for US corn for ethanol use, unchanged from previous, and same as USDA. 2017-18 use was 5.605 billion.



Export Developments

  • India’s MMTC seeks an unspecified amount of corn on May 8, valid until May 26 for shipment until May 29 and June 20.




Soybean complex.

         CBOT soybean prices averaged about 8.83 in April, down from 9.02 in February.

         No offshore values this morning as markets overseas are closed.

         Our China cash crush margin calculation were last negative 62 cents and compares to negative 62 cents late last week and positive 110 cents year ago.

  • China markets: CLOSED

         Malaysian palm markets: CLOSED

  • EIA reported February US biodiesel feedstock use at 985 million pounds, less than expected, but up from 953 million last year and down from 1.114 billion in January 2019.  Soybean oil use was 560 million pounds, only 4 million pounds above our estimate, up from 496 million in February 2018 and down from 623 million in January 2019.
  • We left our 8.300 billion pounds soybean oil for biodiesel use in 2018-19 unchanged from previous. This is 50 million pounds below USDA and compares to 7.134 billion used in 2017-18.
  • US production of biodiesel was 131 million gallons in February 2019, 13 million gallons lower than production in January 2019.
  • Us consumption of biodiesel has been on the decline over the past two years. Exports are helping offset the rise in production, but remember, the US basically cut off Argentina imports. 



Export Developments



         US wheat futures are higher on short covering.  New contract lows were established on Tuesday.

         The US 2019 winter wheat crop tour started, and yields are looking better than last year for Kansas. 

  • Bloomberg: The first day of the KS wheat tour suggests record yields in northwest KS. “Winter wheat yield potential in northwest Kansas was estimated at 46.9 bu/acre, according to results from the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour. * That compares to the tour’s findings last year of 38.2 bu/acre and is the highest since 47.1 bu/acre in 2016 * Crop scouts sampled 240 fields in Kansas * In Nebraska, winter wheat yields were estimated at 44 bu/acre, up from 43 last year”. –

         CBOT SRW wheat prices averaged about 4.51 in April, down from 4.57 in February.

         On Tuesday, May 7, StatsCan will release Canadian crop stocks.


Export Developments.

         Results awaited: Ethiopia seeks 600,000 tons of wheat on April 30.



  • None reported


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst C Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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