FW: FI Morning Grain Comments 02/13/20

PDF attached

 

 

Morning. 
Coronavirus (Covid-19) cases spiked.

 

 

 

Weather

The
CPC looks for 60 percent chance for a neutral ENSO through the NH spring. 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

Not
much has changed overnight. Favorable soil moisture is present in Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, India and some eastern Australia locations which should support crop development.  There is still some concern over harvest conditions in early season soybean
areas of Brazil which may lead to more delay in second season corn planting, but progress is being made every day and it looks as though the paces is not far from the five year average even though much slower than last year.

            Too
much rain in northeastern South Africa in the past week has resulted in some flooding. Crop damage has not been assessed, but the region impacted is a minor production region in eastern Limpopo and northeastern Mpumalanga. Other areas in South Africa have
ideal crop development conditions.

More
rain will fall this week in northern and eastern Europe and from there to Ukraine and that will improve early season crop development potentials for areas that were too dry last autumn.

China’s
winter crops are still rated favorably with a big potential for improving rapeseed conditions in the early weeks of spring after recent weeks of rain.

India’s
winter crops are still poised to perform quite favorably, despite a drier biased outlook for the next ten days.

Southeast
Asia crops are still rated well, despite erratically distributed rainfall in recent weeks.

Eastern
Australia sorghum conditions have improved, but drought remains in key production areas and much more rain will be needed before winter planting of canola begins in late April. Summer crop development has improved, but it will still be a very small crop.

           
Today’s weather will have a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: 

Many
of the winter crop areas in the world that experienced poor crop establishment because of dryness last autumn have seen some timely precipitation in recent weeks. The moisture should help improve winter crop establishment prior to reproduction this spring.
There has also been very little winterkill this year and that should be supporting larger crops. With that said there may have been some damage in a few minor wheat areas in central Nebraska this morning where morning temperatures fell near slightly below
zero Fahrenheit.

            The
biggest dry concern today is in North Africa and in particular southwestern Morocco where durum wheat and barley production has been cut. There is potential for larger small grain losses from North Africa if improved rainfall does not occur soon. Spain and
Portugal are also drying out, but have adequate subsoil moisture for now.

           
Overall, weather today will continue to provide a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
FEB. 13:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
• Giant
  pulp maker Suzano holds investor day in Sao Paulo
• Brazil’s
  grain exporter group Anec holds conference on 2019-20 crop outlook

FRIDAY,
FEB. 14:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  crop conditions – French crops office expected to resume crop-conditions reports after winter break
• New
  Zealand food prices
• Biosev
  holds analyst conference call to discuss 4Q earnings.

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

CBOT
registrations

·        
No changes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
CPI (M/M) Jan 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)

–
US CPI (Y/Y) Jan 2.5% (est 2.4%; prev 2.3%)

US
Core CPI (M/M) Jan 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.1%)

–
US Core CPI (Y/Y) Jan 2.3% (est 2.2%; prev 2.3%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Feb 8  205 K (est 210 K; prevR  203 K; prev 202 K)

–
US Continuing Claims Feb 1 1.698 Mln (est 1.745 Mln; prevR 1.759  Mln; prev 1.751 Mln

 

 

Corn.

·        
Corn futures are
lower on lack of fundamental bullish news and the spike in coronavirus deaths and cases.   

·        
USDA corn sales of nearly 970,000 tons were within expectations. 

·        
1350+ deaths and more than 59,000 cases of coronavirus was recorded. 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51470363

·        
Goldman Roll – day 5

·        
USDA pork sales last week were 28,600 (China 3.7k). 

·        
Brazil imported 177.7 million liters of ethanol in Jan., up from 153.7 million liters in Jan. 2019. 

·        
US weekly ethanol production fell 48,000 barrels to 1.033 million. A Bloomberg poll looked for it to be down 16,000.  US ethanol stocks increased 884,000 barrels to 24.358 million (trade was looking for a
132k increase).  For the past 4 weeks, ethanol production declined on average by 16,000 barrels and stocks increased 338,000 barrels.  Ethanol stocks are near a six-month high.  Corn crop year to date production is running 0.4 percent below the same period
a year ago, an improvement from where it was running at the end of December (2.0 percent lower).  The ethanol blend rate was running at 90.1 percent, above 89.7 percent previous week.  We raised our corn for ethanol use from 5.400 billion bushels to 5.415
billion. USDA is at 5.425 billion versus 5.376 billion in 2018-19. 

 

Export
Developments

• Results
  awaited: Algeria’s ONAB seeks 35,000 tons of optional origin corn on Feb. 13 for shipment in the second half of March

·        
China’s state reserve will sell 20,000 tons of frozen pork on Feb. 14.

 

Soybean
complex.

·        
Soybeans are lower, meal higher and soybean oil sharply lower.  Palm oil was down hard overnight.    

·        
USDA US soybean sales were near the lower end of expectations, meal was within and soybean oil above.  

·        
Port movement in Brazil is picking up after getting heavy rain earlier this week. 

• The
  USDA February Outlook Forum starts a week from today. 

·        
The US$ is higher and the lower. The Brazilian Real was stronger at 4.3230 after hitting an all-time low during its intraday session. 

·        
SEA reported India January vegetable oil imports reached 1.2 MMT, down 6 percent from year earlier. 

·        
Offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil 10 points lower and meal flat. 

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were lower for nearby soybean oil positions and 7-8 euros higher for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were unchanged to 2 euros lower. 

·        
China:

·        
China cash crush margins as of today, using our calculation, was 150 cents per bushel (139 previous), compared to 139 cents more than a week ago and 40 cents around this time last year. 

·        
Malaysian palm markets:
 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• No
  offers for the local tender:   Egypt is in for at least 3,000 tons of soybean oil and 2,000 tons of sunflower oil on Thursday for March 24-April 15 arrival. 
  

 

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat futures were mostly lower. Bull spreading was a feature this morning. 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export sales were near the top end of expectations and nearly double than previous week. 

·        
Strategie Grains lowered their 2020-21 EU wheat crop to 138.6MMT from 139.8 previous.

·        
March Paris wheat futures were up 0.25 at 192.75 euros as of early this morning.

 

 

Export
Developments.

• South
  Korea’s MFG bought 67,000 tons of feed wheat at about $248.35/ton for May/June shipment. 
  
• Turkey
  seeks 25,000 tons of barley on Feb. 18 for 2/26-3/15 loading. 
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat, optional origin, on Feb 18.
• Japan
  bought 110,565 tons of food wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia on Thursday.

Details
are as follows (in tons):

• No
  offers: Japan in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for arrival in Japan by July 30, on Feb. 12. 
  
• Syria
  seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia on February 17 for shipment within 60 days of contract signing. 
  
• Turkey’s
  TMO seeks around 250,000 tons of wheat and 50,000 tons of durum on Feb. 18 for March shipment.
  
• Japan
  in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for arrival in Japan by July 30, on Feb. 19. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: Mauritius has delayed the deadline for to buy up to 6,000 tons of long grain white rice to Feb. 10, for delivery between May 1 and July 31.

·        
Results awaited: Turkey’s TMO seeks 20,000 tons of rice on Feb. 12 for shipment between Feb. 19 and April 6.

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 2/6/2020

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	294.2	1,908.1	1,808.2	200.1	6,261.0	3,770.6	0.0	80.9
SRW	11.7	393.2	886.1	73.5	1,809.1	1,391.0	20.0	25.2
HRS	197.7	1,576.6	1,511.3	179.8	4,732.2	3,992.9	24.0	83.0
WHITE	132.4	1,218.8	1,167.2	52.8	3,188.5	2,961.6	0.0	20.9
DURUM	7.0	197.4	89.9	0.0	623.8	330.0	0.0	61.0
TOTAL	643.1	5,294.1	5,462.7	506.3	16,614.7	12,446.1	44.0	270.9
BARLEY	0.0	15.8	30.9	1.0	33.0	27.4	0.0	30.5
CORN	968.8	11,869.4	13,020.8	782.8	11,890.0	19,266.6	0.0	1,258.9
SORGHUM	17.6	284.0	119.2	84.3	889.2	357.4	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	644.8	5,504.9	12,517.2	611.3	27,447.7	17,851.9	6.3	316.6
SOY MEAL	234.2	3,630.2	3,936.1	268.2	3,885.4	2,973.6	0.0	87.3
SOY OIL	39.1	298.6	210.7	12.8	342.9	195.2	0.0	0.5
RICE
L G RGH	101.5	440.7	222.9	43.9	757.7	564.4	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	25.0	43.3	4.5	0.2	17.0	23.1	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.2	22.2	5.2	1.4	22.0	24.7	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	66.0	95.2	1.9	24.5	45.3	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	2.4	92.1	141.8	32.1	588.6	371.8	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	6.8	129.0	217.3	6.6	335.2	191.2	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	136.0	793.2	687.0	86.0	1,745.0	1,220.5	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	350.9	7,329.9	7,305.9	400.5	5,867.5	3,572.9	57.3	1,142.9
PIMA	10.9	227.8	294.6	7.4	212.7	172.6	0.0	35.3

 

Export Sales Highlights   

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period January 31-February 6, 2020.

Wheat:  Net sales of 643,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 90 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases primarily for Nigeria (130,800 MT, including 51,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (104,800 MT), South Korea (91,100 MT), Vietnam (81,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (79,200 MT),
were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (50,900 MT), Bangladesh (3,000 MT), and Costa Rica (200 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 44,000 MT were for the Philippines (24,000 MT), unknown destinations (11,000 MT), and Peru (9,000 MT).  Exports of
506,300 MT were up 25 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Nigeria (98,800 MT), Bangladesh (87,000 MT), Mexico (69,400 MT), the Philippines (65,800 MT), and Japan (59,800 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2019/2020, the current outstanding balance of 56,000 MT is for the Philippines. 

Corn:  Net sales of 968,800 MT for 2019/2020 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily
for Japan (383,000 MT, including 60,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 21,300 MT), South Korea (193,500 MT), Colombia (110,700 MT, including 75,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (61,700
MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,300 MT), and Mexico (52,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (14,700 MT) and El Salvador (7,900 MT).  Exports of 782,800 MT–a
marketing-year high–were up 31 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (228,700 MT), Japan (203,800 MT), Colombia (189,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (61,700 MT), and El Salvador (29,600
MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2019/2020, options were exercised to export 50,000 MT to Israel from other than the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 524,900 MT is for South Korea (466,000
MT), and Egypt (58,900 MT).

Barley: No net sales for 2019/2020 were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,000 MT were down 21 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were Japan (900 MT) and Taiwan (100 MT).

Sorghum:  For 2019/2020, net sales of 17,600 MT resulting in increases for China (72,600 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations)
and Japan (10,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (65,000 MT).  Exports of 84,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were China (72,600 MT) and Mexico (11,700
MT). 

Rice:  Net sales of 136,000 MT for 2019/2020 were up 78 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Colombia (110,800 MT,
including decreases of 82,500 MT), Turkey (25,000 MT), Honduras (6,000 MT), Guatemala (2,000 MT), and Canada (1,800 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (17,200 MT) and the Netherlands (100 MT). 
Exports of 86,000 MT were up 70 percent from the previous week and 94 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (40,300 MT), Haiti (29,600 MT), El Salvador (4,500 MT), Canada (2,900 MT), and Jordan
(2,900 MT).

Exports for Own Account:  For 2019/2020, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans:  Net sales of 644,800 MT for 2019/2020 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (132,000 MT),
Egypt (120,000 MT), Bangladesh (60,900 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), the Netherlands (56,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), and Japan (48,400 MT,
including 29,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,200 MT), were offset by reductions for Costa Rica (100 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 6,300 MT were for Japan (6,100 MT) and Hong Kong (200 MT).  Exports of 611,300 MT were down 58
percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Bangladesh (85,900 MT), Mexico (73,000 MT), China (69,000 MT), the Netherlands (56,000 MT), and Taiwan (50,800 MT). 

Exports for Own Account:  For 2019/2020, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 2,100 MT, all Canada.

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 234,200 MT for 2019/2020 were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 44 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Morocco (37,000 MT), the Philippines
(35,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (25,000 MT), Canada (22,600 MT), and Ecuador (22,600 MT, including 7,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), were offset by reductions for Nicaragua (5,500 MT) and Belgium (900 MT).  Exports of
268,200 MT were up 56 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Spain (60,900 MT), the Philippines (50,700 MT), Mexico (45,500 MT), Libya (27,500 MT), and Canada (17,100 MT).

Soybean Oil:  Net sales of 39,100 MT for 2019/2020 primarily for South Korea (25,000 MT), Morocco (16,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Canada (3,600 MT), Jamaica (3,600 MT),
and El Salvador (2,600 MT), were offset by reducutions for unknwon destinations (16,000 MT) and Colombia (500 MT).  Exports of 12,800 MT were primarily to Venezuela (5,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,900 MT), El Salvador (2,200 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), and
Canada (300 MT). 

Cotton:  Net sales of 350,900 RB for 2019/2020–a marketing-year high–were up 6 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior
4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (152,000 MT, including 2,600 RB switched from South Korea), Turkey (74,000 RB), Pakistan (49,300 RB), Bangladesh (44,200 RB), and Indonesia (20,500 RB, including 1,200 RB switched from Japan), were offset by
reductions primarily for China (48,400 RB).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 57,300 RB were for Bangladesh (26,200 RB), Pakistan (18,500 RB), Malaysia (6,600 RB), Indonesia (5,300 RB), and Ecuador (700 RB).  Exports of 400,500 RB were down 4 percent from the previous
week, but up 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Pakistan (93,400 RB), Vietnam (81,500 RB), Turkey (63,100 RB), China (52,200 RB), and Bangladesh (36,200 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 10,900 RB were up 98 percent from the
previous week, but down 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for India (5,200 RB), Egypt (2,200 RB), Turkey (1,200 RB), Thailand (1,000 RB), and Italy (800 RB, including 300 RB switched from China), were offset by reductions for China
(500 RB).  Exports of 7,400 RB were up 28 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were India (2,100 RB), Pakistan (1,500 RB), El Salvador (900 RB), Peru (900 RB), and Bangladesh (800 RB). 

Exports for Own Account:  For 2019/2020, new exports for own account totaling 25,000 RB were primarily to Indonesia (17,900 RB), Vietnam (3,900 RB),
Pakistan (1,000 RB), South Korea (1,000 RB), and Bangladesh (900 RB).  Exports for own account totaling 9,900 RB to Vietnam (4,700 RB), Pakistan (3,200 RB), Bangladesh (1,100 RB), China (600 RB), and Japan (200 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales. 
Decreases were reported for India (1,100 RB).  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 40,000 RB is for Indonesia (17,900 RB), Vietnam (7,500 RB), Bangladesh (6,200 RB), India (4,300 RB), China (2,700 RB), South Korea (1,000 RB), and Malaysia
(400 RB). 

Hides and Skins: Net sales of 236,900
pieces for 2020 primarily for China (87,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 16,400 pieces), South Korea (48,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 2,500 pieces), Mexico (44,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 2,300 pieces), Thailand
(21,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 2,800 pieces), Italy (19,100 whole calf skins, including decreases of 100 pieces), and Indonesia (14,000 pieces, including decreases of 200 pieces), were offset by reductions for Belgium (1,400 whole kip skins),
Brazil (300 whole cattle hides) and Japan (100 whole cattle hides).  Exports of 481,300 pieces were reported for 2020.  Whole cattle hide exports of 479,300 pieces were primarily to China (273,100 pieces), South Korea (98,600 pieces), Mexico (51,600 pieces),
Thailand (25,500 pieces), and Taiwan (14,700 pieces).  Whole calf skin exports of 2,000 pieces were to Italy.

Net sales of 92,600 wet blues for 2020 primarily for Italy (30,400 unsplit and 23,000 grain splits), Vietnam (18,900 unsplit and 200 grain splits), China
(8,800 grain splits and 8,800 unsplit), and the Dominican Republic (2,600 unsplit), were offset by reductions primarily for Thailand (100 unsplit).  Exports of 137,200 wet blues were to Italy (34,900 unsplit and 10,300 grain splits), China (34,900 unsplit
and 5,100 grain splits), Vietnam (32,100 unsplit), Thailand (15,700 unsplit), and Taiwan (2,400 unsplit).
Net sales of splits, 1,012,000 pounds for 2020, were for Vietnam (1,000,000 pounds) and China (12,000 pounds).  Exports of 172,000 pounds were to Vietnam (160,000 pounds)
and China (12,000 pounds).

 

Beef:
Net sales of 17,500 MT for 2020 were primarily for Japan (6,900 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), South Korea (4,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), Taiwan (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 16,900 MT were primarily
to Japan (6,300 MT), South Korea (4,700 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT), Taiwan (1,000 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT). 

Pork:
Net sales of 28,600 MT for 2020 were primarily for Mexico (6,800 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China (3,700 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT), and Canada (3,100 MT).  Exports of 42,900 MT
were primarily to Mexico (13,100 MT), China (13,000 MT), Japan (6,000 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT), and Canada (2,200 MT)