Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-05-2023

Jan 5, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:08 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.874

$4.172

-7.14%

-$0.298

21,541

 

 

WTI

$73.41

$72.84

0.78%

$0.57

90,193

 

 

Brent

$78.50

$77.84

0.85%

$0.66

11,591

 

 

ULSD

$3.024

$2.972

1.75%

$0.052

10,015

 

 

RBOB

$2.289

$2.259

1.31%

$0.030

11,989

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.81

$4.74

1.48%

$0.07

Mar-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.49

$30.77

2.35%

$0.72

Feb-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$73.44

$70.10

4.76%

$3.34

Feb-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/30/23

779

0

193

12/31/22

 

 

Canada

12/30/23

84

-12

-6

12/31/22

 

 

International

Nov

910

-1

93

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/27/2022

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,545

94,122

94,340

-218

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,875

85,489

85,537

-48

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

461,684

440,992

450,482

-9,490

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,603

116,635

116,685

-50

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

150,564

140,965

144,568

-3,603

 

 

NYM Ethanol

22,186

21,591

21,925

-334

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

144,253

143,008

142,447

561

 

 

RBOB

248,293

228,769

232,674

-3,905

 

 

HSC Basis

541,275

536,984

532,930

4,054

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/29/17

 

 

 

12/23/22

12/16/22

Net Change

% Change

12/24/21

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

747

789

-42

-5.32%

777

-3.86%

752

-0.64%

 

 

Midwest

899

974

-75

-7.70%

918

-2.07%

894

0.58%

 

 

Mountain

166

178

-12

-6.74%

180

-7.78%

177

-6.43%

 

 

Pacific

165

186

-21

-11.29%

235

-29.79%

253

-34.68%

 

 

South

1,136

1,199

-63

-5.25%

1,116

1.79%

1,066

6.57%

 

 

    Salt

323

340

-17

-5.00%

326

-0.92%

314

2.80%

 

 

    Non_Salt

813

858

-45

-5.24%

790

2.91%

752

8.11%

 

 

Total

3,112

3,325

-213

-6.41%

3,226

-3.53%

3,142

-0.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/23

1/3/23

% Change

Change

12/5/22

% Change

1/4/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-23

$81.73

$79.03

3.42%

$2.70

$107.67

-24.10%

$62.48

30.80%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-23

$66.57

$57.91

14.96%

$8.66

$72.78

-8.53%

$54.63

21.86%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-23

$161.63

$155.18

4.16%

$6.46

$95.82

68.68%

$56.05

188.37%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-23

$68.70

$68.53

0.26%

$0.18

$95.95

-28.39%

$60.10

14.33%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-23

$159.50

$160.02

-0.32%

-$0.52

$250.18

-36.25%

$140.37

13.63%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-23

$177.81

$153.81

15.61%

$24.01

$119.27

49.09%

$59.50

198.83%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-23

$131.84

$133.43

-1.19%

-$1.59

$198.88

-33.71%

$90.33

45.95%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/23

1/3/23

% Change

Change

12/5/22

% Change

1/4/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-23

$4.172

$3.988

4.61%

$0.18

$5.48

-23.92%

$4.00

4.30%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-23

-$0.345

-$0.226

52.95%

-$0.12

$0.22

-256.92%

$0.23

-250.87%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-23

$0.855

$0.812

-5.02%

$0.04

$0.85

0.70%

$0.40

115.53%

 

 

Waha

Feb-23

-$0.770

-$0.496

-55.17%

-$0.27

-$0.72

6.95%

-$0.11

584.27%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-23

$15.350

$16.009

-4.12%

-$0.66

$29.18

-47.39%

$13.01

17.98%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-23

-$0.804

-$0.756

6.36%

-$0.05

-$1.96

-58.94%

-$1.02

-21.50%

 

 

Socal

Feb-23

$15.284

$13.299

14.93%

$1.99

$4.35

251.16%

$0.86

1676.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/23

1/3/23

% Change

Change

12/5/22

% Change

1/4/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-23

$0.750

$0.800

-6.19%

-$0.05

$0.76

-1.27%

$0.96

-22.23%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-23

$0.795

$0.805

-1.23%

-$0.01

$0.76

4.54%

$0.95

-16.59%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-23

$0.283

$0.307

-7.93%

-$0.02

$0.38

-26.09%

$0.31

-7.41%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-23

$1.508

$1.619

-6.88%

-$0.11

$1.55

-2.69%

$1.56

-3.31%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-23

$1.019

$1.040

-2.02%

-$0.02

$0.93

10.01%

$1.09

-6.84%

 

 

Conway Propane

Feb-23

$0.775

$0.817

-5.08%

-$0.04

$0.78

-0.62%

$1.00

-22.63%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Feb-23

$1.543

$1.640

-5.89%

-$0.10

$1.58

-2.38%

$1.58

-2.51%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/23

1/3/23

% Change

Change

12/5/22

% Change

1/4/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-23

$72.84

$76.93

-5.62%

-$4.09

$77.08

-5.50%

$71.02

2.56%

 

 

Brent

Feb-23

$77.79

$82.13

-5.58%

-$4.34

$82.68

-5.91%

$74.66

4.20%

 

 

WCS

Feb-23

-$27.81

-$29.84

-7.30%

$2.03

-$27.27

1.97%

-$14.83

87.54%

 

 

LLS

Feb-23

$74.11

$78.43

-5.84%

-$4.33

$79.19

-6.42%

$71.99

2.94%

 

 

Mars

Feb-23

$68.43

$72.71

-6.26%

-$4.28

$73.24

-6.57%

$68.96

-0.77%

 

 

Sour

Feb-23

$68.00

$72.67

-6.87%

-$4.67

$73.04

-6.90%

$69.11

-1.60%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-23

$76.76

$82.48

-7.46%

-$5.72

$80.42

-4.55%

$73.06

5.06%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/23

1/3/23

% Change

Change

12/5/22

% Change

1/4/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-23

$2.98

$3.09

-3.30%

-$0.10

$2.97

0.44%

$2.29

30.24%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-23

$2.28

$2.42

-6.03%

-$0.15

$2.22

2.52%

$2.06

10.22%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-23

$2.17

$2.32

-6.29%

-$0.15

$2.12

2.64%

$1.96

10.74%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-23

$2.64

$3.07

-13.93%

-$0.43

$2.61

1.03%

$2.06

27.86%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-23

$2.24

$2.28

-1.89%

-$0.04

$2.12

5.52%

$1.97

13.84%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-23

$776.40

$852.99

-8.98%

-$76.59

$829.27

-6.38%

$607.08

27.89%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-23

$105.40

$113.63

-7.24%

-$8.23

$109.45

-3.71%

$84.73

24.40%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/23

1/3/23

% Change

Change

12/5/22

% Change

1/4/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-23

87.82%

101.03%

-13.08%

-13.21%

131.54%

-33.24%

49.52%

77.34%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-23

126.83%

131.70%

-3.70%

-4.87%

163.06%

-22.22%

96.48%

31.46%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-23

119.84%

135.67%

-11.67%

-15.83%

156.19%

-23.27%

49.36%

142.79%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-23

81.14%

93.08%

-12.83%

-11.94%

116.56%

-30.39%

47.91%

69.36%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-23

150.59%

151.57%

-0.65%

-0.98%

150.47%

0.08%

53.68%

180.53%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-23

320.87%

316.50%

1.38%

4.37%

228.91%

40.17%

26.35%

1117.72%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-23

233.45%

228.55%

2.14%

4.90%

538.46%

-56.64%

36.86%

533.34%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/23

1/3/23

% Change

Change

12/5/22

% Change

1/4/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-23

EUR 64.00

EUR 70.80

-9.60%

-EUR 6.80

EUR 136.49

-53.11%

EUR 81.21

-21.19%

 

 

NBP

Feb-23

GBP 153.00

GBP 170.00

-10.00%

-GBP 17.00

GBP 340.75

-55.10%

GBP 188.52

-18.84%

 

 

German Base

Feb-23

EUR 165.00

EUR 193.00

-14.51%

-EUR 28.00

EUR 394.02

-58.12%

EUR 262.23

-37.08%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-23

GBP 167.22

GBP 198.84

-15.90%

-GBP 31.62

GBP 509.75

-67.19%

GBP 168.33

-0.66%

 

 

French Base

Feb-23

EUR 203.80

EUR 242.35

-15.91%

-EUR 38.55

EUR 709.61

-71.28%

EUR 235.74

-13.55%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-23

EUR 201.83

EUR 207.62

-2.79%

-EUR 5.80

EUR 356.43

-43.38%

EUR 206.32

-2.18%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-23

$26.46

$28.80

-8.10%

-$2.33

$34.09

-22.38%

$26.91

-1.66%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/31/2022

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

652

235

-4

56.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

856

200

-57

30.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

826

117

-141

17.00%

-15.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,090

163

-28

18.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-3

-10

2,176

212

-50

11.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

-8

1,725

178

41

12.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

1

-1

-28

2,918

469

269

19.00%

10.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,384

141

-17

11.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

975

271

69

38.00%

8.00%

 

 

United States

1

0

-5

1,439

223

0

18.00%

0.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/31/2022

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

244

-24

29

2,155

-307

127

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

233

-16

63

2,018

-173

327

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

256

-26

70

2,378

-94

425

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

283

-23

26

2,675

-20

570

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

158

18

110

1,083

0

259

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

175

-5

139

1,408

-2

353

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

124

-7

105

942

37

421

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

184

-35

-38

2,150

3

427

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

106

-27

-73

1,260

7

90

NA

NA

 

 

United States

188

-14

50

1,688

-51

319

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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