Daily Market Report – Nov 30, 2022

The CFVv2 forecast are pushing cool temps in to the Dec forecast. Here is a view of week 1-4:

Dec as a whole has cooler temps widely across the Midwest and Northeast now. These are both heavily populated regions; hence we could see natgas consumption jump considerably.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  101.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.17 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.45 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 94.3 Bcf today,  +3.99 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +8.11 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 33 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.8 Bcf today. LNG nominations are posting the highest since the Freeport outage. Sabine Pass was the biggest day-on-day mover, which dropped yesterday to 3.6 Bcf/d momentarily. The issue causing the dip is still unknown. Corpus Christie is also back to operating at normal levels, and Calcasieu Pass is set to hit a record level today of 1.854 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today.

For week ending Nov 18^th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a -81 Bcf, while our flow model is much lower at -78 injection. 

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