Daily Market Report – Nov 28, 2022

Welcome back from the long weekend. A strong cold front brings cool temps and heavy mountain snow to the Pacific NW and northern Rockies early this week, but the overall forecast for the lower48 warms since Friday’s midday runs. Both major models show the 6-10 period warming significantly over the weekend and this alongside the strong production looks to be the trigger that pushed the natgas markets much lower. Here is the HDD change in the short-term forecast between Friday’s 12z and today’s 00z.

The current CFSv2 for Dec has been migrating to a cooler pattern for up North, while pushing the above normal temps for the Southern and Central regions. With the potential cooling of the Midwest and NE, we could see Dec settle in much cooler than originally anticipated.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  102.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.03 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production showed strength over the weekend, specifically out of the SC.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 91 Bcf today,  +2.11 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.95 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 30.6 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.6 Bcf today. LNG feedgas levels struggle with Corpus Christie operating at much lower than normal levels since last Wednesday.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -80 Bcf today.

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