The Dec contract is trading higher this morning with weather shifting cooler over the weekend. The current outlook now takes forecast much cooler until the Thanksgiving long weekend, after which we return to the 10Y normal.
Here are the changes from Friday’s 12Z.
This latest pattern projections takes the forecast well above normal TDD levels for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period. The current NOAA weather outlook updates directly here: http://www.analytix.ai/weather.html
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 101.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.57 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 97.7 Bcf today, -1.09 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +11.63 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 36.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12 Bcf today. Sabine Pass is still running near the 4.5 Bcf/d level today, but we did see it bump higher on Saturday near it’s peak level of 5.2 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today. The cooler Midwest this week is pricing much strong in the cash markets to receive the AECO gas.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +65 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Nov-14-2022.pdf