Daily Market Report – Dec 1, 2022

For week ending Nov 25^th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a -81 Bcf, while our flow model is lower at -78 draw. Last year we drew only -54 Bcf during the same week.

The current Bloomberg survey is -82 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -85 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +26 [no OI]

Week 2 is -93 [1 OI]

Week 3 is -124 [no OI]

There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1635, OI = 171 [Last week was 1692]
There current end of Summer 2023 (Nov 9^th) is 3765, OI = 0. [Last week was 3585]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.39 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.01 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 103 Bcf today,  +4.58 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +15.56 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 40.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.7 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.

For week ending Nov 25^th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a -81 Bcf, while our flow model is lower at -78 injection. 

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