Daily Market Report – Dec 06, 2022

The bearish weather theme continues to push into December with the Euro Ensemble now warmer to catch up to the GFS Ensemble. The Euro Ensemble shed nearly 20 HDDs over the next couple of weeks, with the bulk showing up in the 6-10 day period.

Overall, the GFS Ensemble is still much warmer over the next 15 days.

Here is the latest NOAA outlook:

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.99 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.75 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 90.8 Bcf today,  -5.6 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.96 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 30.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today. Sabine operations have been volatile with today’s nominations dropping back below 4 Bcf/d

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.

For week ending Dec 2^nd, the S/D storage is pointing to a -13 Bcf, while our flow model is much lower at -8 Bcf injection.  Last year we drew -59 Bcf during the same week. We take the middle ground of the two models; hence a draw of 10-11 Bcf is likely this week.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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